Revisiting High Yield Portfolio.

On 17 April, I mentioned that I checked Google Analytics to see how my blog was doing and was surprised to find that one of my earliest posts made last Christmas Eve was the most viewed post of my blog.  It was a post that I made about six counters I am vested in and would recommend to anyone who is interested in building up a high yield portfolio.

Out of curiosity rather than necessity, I decided to take a look at the portfolio to see how it has performed since:

Saizen REIT:  This was 15c at the time. The last done price was 17c. Gained 13.3%.  Income distribution to resume in mid 2010.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT):  This was 20.5c at the time. The last done price was 22c.  Gained 7.3%. XD 12 Feb: 0.1868c which is a yield of 0.91%.

LMIR: This was 51.5c at the time. The last done price was 50c.  Lost 3%. XD 17 Feb: 1.6c which is a yield of 3.1%.

First REIT: This was 80c at the time. The last done price was 87c.  Gained 8.75%. XD 28 Jan: 1.91c which is a yield of 2.39%.

Suntec REIT: This was $1.34 at the time. The last done price was $1.38.  Gained 2.99%.  XD 29 Jan: 0.318c which is a yield of 0.2%.

SPH: This was $3.60 at the time. The last done price was $4.15.  Gained 15.3%.

Assuming that an investor had put in an equal amount of money in each of these six counters on 28 Dec 2009, he would have gained 7.44%.  He would also have an average yield of 1.1%.  Total returns of 8.54%. Not bad for a 4 months period (28 Dec to 23 Apr). Since inflation is expected to be about 3% this year, this portfolio has beaten inflation by now.

The allure of such a portfolio is that very little time is required to maintain it. Buy in at fair prices as indicated by the charts and simply hold until a time when the technicals turn negative. Regular streams of passive income happening in the meantime would make an average person quite happy. Such a portfolio is perfect for anyone who does not have the time, savvy or inclination to trade the market.

It would be interesting to see how this portfolio would do after a 12 months period. I expect that it would look even better with all the income distributions from the REITs and the dividends from SPH streaming in over the next few months.  Let's check in again on 24 Dec 2010, shall we?

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.
High yield portfolio.

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I don't usually watch football but this is entertaining:
A match in Argentina produces a bizarre goal, with two players scoring the same overhead kick.

Gimnasia Vs. Boca @ Yahoo! Video

Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

STI gains 0.3% to 2,988.49 at closing
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  No descend to $2.12. Opened at $2.17, hit a low of $2.14 and closed at $2.17.  A dragonfly doji and, yes, a bullish candlestick. We have a green histogram on the MACD after many red ones.  A buy signal.

The stochastics is turning up from the oversold region while the MFI is deep in oversold territory.  Is this a reversal?  Needs confirmation and immediate resistance could be found at $2.26, a candlestick support that failed on 16 April.  Incidentally, that is also where we would find the descending 20dMA next Monday.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: A white candle day as we get a buy signal on the MACD.  Stochastics has turned up and the MACD has turned up towards the signal line as well. The Bollinger bands look to be initiating a squeeze.  A retest of 62.5c, a three times tested resistance, looks likely. A longer term negative divergence between price and volume is still intact and like I said in an earlier TA, I might just divest some of my remaining shares at 62.5c, taking some gains off the table.

China Hongxing: My latest purchase is not turning out well, just like an earlier purchase of CapitaMalls Asia. Unlike CapitaMalls Asia, however, my purchase of China Hongxing was not premised on strong fundamentals.  So, I am wondering whether to cut.

Price declined on very much higher volume today to close at 14.5c.  The MACD turned down and seems poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  This negated the buy signal seen yesterday. All the momentum oscillators have swung down.  I might cut loss on Monday.

Courage Marine: The technical picture isn't all that great here either but the OBV is flat.  So, that is at least a positive as it suggests that the weakness is not accompanied by any massive distribution. The MACD has done a bearish crossover with the signal line. If 22.5c gives way, price could go lower.

Saizen REIT: Many must be wondering at the weakness displayed by this counter in recent sessions.  If we take a look at the weekly chart, it becomes quite clear why this has been so.  Saizen REIT has one big hurdle to cross before it can go higher: the 100wMA.  I have mentioned this a few times in some earlier posts.  This descending 100wMA is a powerful negative force, a strong resistance.  It is now at 17.5c.

The 100wMA is keeping a lid on Saizen REIT's attempt to move higher in price in the short run. The rising 20wMA is at 16c.  Price action is probably going to be trapped between the 100wMA and the 20wMA for a while. Any descend to 16c will see increased buying interest.

In the short term, Saizen REIT is trendless but over a longer term, it is in an obvious uptrend.  The weekly OBV shows an obvious trend of accumulation over the last few months too. My strategy for this counter has been and still is a simple one: buy and hold.

First REIT’s 1Q distributable income up 1.3% to $5.2m
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Maria Bartiromo on Goldman Case: Where's the Fraud?

Posted Apr 22, 2010 04:23pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein


Related posts:
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?
Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

Revaluing the RMB.

Revaluing the RMB is a matter of when, not if.  It is widely known that the RMB is undervalued and the Chinese government realises that it has to let the RMB appreciate. This would bring down the cost of living in the country and help put a lid on inflationary pressures.  However, China wants to do so at its own pace. 

The Chinese government is and has always been very concerned about not losing face. A confrontational attitude from outsiders would do more harm than good.

When the RMB is revalued upwards and we can expect this to happen in a series of steps in time, foreign companies with assets in China and with earnings denominated in the RMB will surely benefit. Also, foreigners should find investing in Chinese companies and assets attractive in such a situation as the value of their Chinese investments in their home currencies would likely increase.

China is on track to overtake Japan as the largest economy in Asia and companies which are well positioned to benefit from the growth of the Chinese economy will most likely do better than peers which are not.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

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Yuan Gains May Help China Vault Past Japan to Be No. 2 Economy

April 19, 2010, 1:36 AM EDT


April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s anticipated move to let its currency appreciate may help the nation overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.

 A 5 percent revaluation against the dollar could see quarterly gross domestic product exceed Japan’s as soon as July- to-September this year, estimated Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZ. The Chinese economy is likely to vault past Japan by year’s end even if the yuan remains stable, Liu said in an e-mailed interview.

Read complete article here:
Yuan gains may help China vault past Japan to be No. 2 economy.

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Weak Chinese Currency "Not Just An American Problem,"
FT's Martin Wolf Says.
Posted Apr 22, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein



Related posts:
New global economic leadership.

Genting SP: Downward drift continues.

STI gains 0.4% to 2,980.69 at closing
Thursday, 22 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

I am getting somewhat bored with saying more or less the same things everyday for a while now.  The market has not been very exciting either way.  So, I am giving myself a break from doing a "Charts in brief" post today.  However, Genting SP's price caught my eyes as it touched a low of 85c before closing at 86c today.  I am not vested in this counter but the amount of interest it has generated as the biggest story in Singapore's entertainment and hospitality industries in recent times got me looking on as well.

Technically, it would seem as if a test of the previous low at 83.5c achieved on 4 March is on the cards. The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs are all downtrending.  The MACD is still below zero and has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line.  OBV shows distribution taking place.  MFI shows a lack of buying momentum.  Stochastics has just dipped into oversold territory. 

A bearish picture is obvious, no doubt. However, the selling down lacks strong conviction, in my opinion.  If we look at 18 Feb which was the day the $1.02 support gave way completely, the volume was extremely high.  Volume has been relatively low since that day as price retreated.  I am not saying that price could not go lower but I am saying that the current selling pressure does not seem as great as it was earlier this year.  Having said this, price could go lower and I see 80c as a significant support level.

What if 80c gives way? Well, a look at the weekly chart shows the 100wMA at 75c and this should provide a stronger support.

Related post:
Genting SP: Stale bulls' second chance?

Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

STI drops 0.5% to 2,967.65 at closing
Wednesday, 21 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: The technical picture looks decidedly bearish.  OBV continues to decline as distribution continues.  MACD is pulling away downwards from the signal line. MFI is hovering above the oversold region while the Stochastics is deep in the oversold region.  Price is now testing the previous low of $2.19.  Continuing downward movement should see the next support at $2.12 tested.  If price starts basing at the current level, we might see the formation of a double bottom.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji.  I still see support at the 50dMA at 56.5c and would accumulate if price descends to that level.  By next week, the rising 50dMA would be at 57c.  100dMA is at 54.5c.  Price has not been able to break 62.5c in three separate sessions in recent memory.  So, that is likely to be an important psychological resistance.  I might sell some of my remaining shares at that level, therefore.

Saizen REIT: An extreme low volume day. We have a buy signal on the MACD. MFI bounced off 50% and OBV rose slightly. All MAs are still rising.  Price is still above the 20dMA which is at 16.9c currently.  In another few sessions, the 20dMA would be at 17c.

China Hongxing: Price closed at 15c, the support provided by the 20dMA, on reduced volume.  20dMA is still rising.  50dMA is still falling.  A golden cross in the making, it seems.

Courage Marine: Volume expanded and price traded at the gap resistance of 23.5c the whole session.  MACD is rising.  OBV shows keen accumulation.  MFI pushes higher into the overbought region. 25.5c is next if 23.5c is taken out convincingly. Positive momentum is very much present.

SPH: This elephant is flying. Another strong white candle day as volume expanded with price closing at $4.12.  OBV shows unabating accumulation. $4.12 was a resistance level in June 2008 that proved too strong.  If this is taken out, price could go on to test $4.33 but before that, another resistance could be found at $4.21.  This was a support level that finally gave way in May 2008 and was not recaptured since.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

Tea with AK71: Buy me a cuppa tea?

I cannot remember who suggested that I should put a donation widget in my blog.  I remember it was during the early days of this blog.  Was the person Jason, CT or CL?  Hmmm...  Well, guess what.  I've just done it.  You will see the button on the left asking for a donation to my pocket money fund. ;-)

All donations are done securely through PayPal.  So, if you are feeling generous or if you feel that I deserve it, a small donation to buy me a cuppa tea would be nice.

Personally, I feel quite happy that I am learning so many new high tech stuff about blogs.  One more step away from being in the Jurassic Age for me, I guess.  ;-p

Heartfelt thanks to everyone who has visited and made this blog come alive!

Tea with AK71: A PDA phone?

Nuffnang is running a HTC mobile phone campaign on my blog for a few days and this triggers something personal in my mind.

Many friends own PDA phones but I have not found the need for one myself so far.  Of course, I have been described by many as an IT dinosaur.  So, I am not a good reference, I guess.

A friend just bought a HTC mobile phone a month ago and he says that it's pretty decent and very useful. Maybe, just maybe, I should consider a PDA phone too.  Do you own a PDA mobile phone? What is your experience with it? Is a HTC good or do you think that other PDA phones are better? I would appreciate any good advice.  :-)

Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

The STI clawed back 20.44 points today to close at 2,981.31 on respectably high volume. U.S. Futures are all showing an upward bias as of now.  This bull has legs.

Despite guarded sentiment, Phillip Securities says longer-term outlook for market still positive: “The reaction to Goldman’s fraud charges could eventually be trumped by what has been very positive S&P 500 earnings results.” Written by The Edge, Tuesday, 20 April 2010 13:30.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another black candle day as price closed at the support identified at $2.20.  My overnight buy queue was done.  Will the counter retest the low of $2.19 made in February this year or would price bottom here and start a basing process to form a double bottom?  Only time will tell.  Stochastics is suggesting that the counter is very oversold and further downside should see the next significant support at $2.12.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji as price stays above the rising 20dMA.  Volume has reduced. All MAs are trending upwards. From the MFI, it is obvious that positive buying momentum is lacking. Hard to say which way this might go.  So, no fresh positions for now.  Would buy some if price retraces to 56.5c.

China Hongxing: Closing at 15.5c, it formed a gravestone doji as price touched a high of 16c today.  Although it is a gravestone doji, I think it more positive than negative here as price did not touch 15c the whole day.  This means that, for the first time since 26 January, China Hongxing managed to trade at or above the 50dMA the whole day. The MACD continues to rise and seems to be sneaking a peek above zero, heralding a return of positive momentum. However, volume is anaemic and this will have to expand for a convincing move up.

Courage Marine: Low volume day as MFI and OBV both turned up slightly. Not much to say here. I would accumulate on pullbacks. Overcoming the gap resistance at 23.5c should test the immediate target of 25.5c.  Eventual target is still 27c.

Saizen REIT: Someone sold down 3m warrants and 1m shares at 7.5c and 16.5c respectively, rather late in the day.  This caused the OBV and MFI to both turn down.  16.5c is now the new floor for Saizen REIT.  This is a support level provided by the 50dMA.  My overnight buy queue for more warrants at 7.5c was filled.

Healthway Medical: 16c is still holding up nicely as the support.  OBV is flat.  No obvious distribution.  MFI is declining gently, which is logical. This counter might just be basing at 16c for a while. Further downside will find support at 15c.

NOL: Formed a higher low yesterday as it closed at $2.24 today, forming a wickless white candle.  Nice.  Uptrending OBV suggests continuing accumulation. Taking out the recent high of $2.35 would suggest an immediate target of $2.50.  Eventual target is still $2.60.  A rising 20dMA and candlestick supports should limit downside in the near term to $2.11 but a stronger support is found at $1.96.

Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings of $3.3 billion, or $5.59 a share, on revenue of $12.78 billion. Earnings nearly doubled from a year ago and the results were well ahead of consensus expectations. Posted Apr 19, 2010 05:16pm EDT by Aaron Task.





Related post:
Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Most of my portfolio hardly budged as the STI retreated 1.5% today.  The exceptions are the likes of CapitaMalls Asia and SPH.  AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR, First REIT and Saizen REIT are holding steady.  I believe that any further weakness would bring out the buyers as the problem in the USA with Goldman Sachs should not have any material impact here in Asia.  It is not a financial meltdown or anything like it.  It is a legal matter and the proceedings are domestic in nature.

STI drops 1.5% to 2,960.93 at closing
Monday, 19 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitalMalls Asia: Closed at $2.21.  I have put in my buy queue for tomorrow at $2.20.  In the last three sessions (today inclusive), the volume has been reducing as price retreated.  Stochastics has dipped into oversold territory.  MFI is declining fast and OBV shows some distribution.  Overall, not a pretty picture.  Any purchase of shares in this company is now based on fundamentals, not technicals as expectations of a feisty reversal is out the window for now.

Golden Agriculture: Price closed at 59c, supported by the rising 20dMA.  A doji is formed.  This is, of course, a possible reversal signal.  The MACD has just completed a bearish crossover.  Further weakness will see support at 56.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  I might reload then.

Healthway Medical: >2.6m shares sold down at 16c at 5.05pm, creating a gravestone doji in the process.  This is the first time the counter has closed at 16c since 3 March 2010.  The MACD has gone under zero, suggesting an end of positive momentum.  16c remains a critical support.  If this goes, the next support is at 15c.  That would be a nice price to accumulate some.

Saizen REIT: Some profit taking continues. MFI has formed a lower high but the OBV is flat, suggesting that although the buying momentum has stalled, there is no heavy selling down going on. The rising 50dMA is at 16.5c which coincides with my believe that 16.5c is the new floor for the counter and should be a strong support.  Uptrend is intact.

SPH: A big black candle day as price managed to close just 1c above $4.00.  Any further weakness will see support at $3.89 where we find the rising 20dMA.  The rising 50dMA is at $3.82.  I would accumulate on weakness.  Uptrend is intact.

Courage Marine: Down 1c, MFI is dipping out of overbought territory.  Any weakness should find support at 21.5c.  The flat 200dMA should provide support at 20c in case of further weakness.  I would accumulate on weakness as I like the fundamentals over the next few months at least.  Uptrend is intact.

China Hongxing: Closed 0.5c lower on lower volume. Signs are still good that this counter is probably prime for a breakout. Price action is now trapped between the 50dMA (15.5c) and the 20dMA (15c) in a crab-like pincer.  Going by the rising MFI and OBV since 30 March, the chances are good that price is likely to move higher.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

Avoiding the memory effect.

Human beings remember well things which are particularly unpleasant or particularly pleasant.  In short, human beings remember extremes very well.  However, as investors, we really have to stay level headed and be in tune with the present, the current reality, and not let the past shackle us.

For example, I have a friend who bought a few hundred lots of Healthway Medical's shares when it was 12.5c, if I remember correctly, last year and sold most of them at 13c or so just before the price ran up.  The investment in Healthway Medical was one premised on its relatively strong fundamentals and inexpensive valuation.  However, any shareholder of the company at the time would remember the months of malaise in its price action last year and my friend divested most of his shares.  With only 100 lots left, he became reluctant to sell even as the price rose to hit the eventual technical target I identified at 19.5c shortly after.

When we spoke, he told me, "but I only have 100 lots left". I told him that he must not base his decision on the larger position he once had.  He had to make his decision on what he had then which was 100 lots.  So, the question to ask was: "if he did not have those hundreds of lots which he sold off cheap (on hindsight) and 100 lots were all he had to begin with, would he sell some, if not all, to realise some gains?"  Freed from memories of the past, the answer was a loud and clear "yes".  Never be chained down by what could have been.  Focus on the present and what is.

Similarly, I have friends who told me that they should have bought Healthway Medical shares at 10c when I first started accumulating in mid 2009.  That's the beauty of hindsight, isn't it?  These same friends also said that they should have started accumulating Saizen REIT at 10c.  The memories of the past chained them down and they could not act in the present.

I would tell anyone that I only started accumulating Saizen REIT at 13c, not 10c, and I kept on buying as its price rose. I bought more at 16.5c too.  Why?  The uptrend is intact and this has not changed.  The fundamentals are still compelling.  There is no reason for me to sell if the very reasons which compelled me to buy have not changed and are still valid.  Mind you, these reasons could be fundamental, technical or both.  I am not a purist.  I am a pragmatist.

I might have shared some of these thoughts before in some other posts.  I cannot remember but if I am repeating myself, I beg your pardon.  Please humour me.  Have a great Sunday!