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Tea with AK71: Pillarised.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

What is "pillarised"? I would be surprised if such a word existed. It is just a word that happened to pop into my head as my car had a close encounter with a pillar in the carpark this afternoon in Burlington Square.  That building has to have one of the most badly designed carparks in Singapore! One particular turn near the exit ramp was very tight.  Anyway, that's where my car's passenger door got "pillarised".  Sob.

I usually drive well and I have survived even the most claustrophobic of HDB carparks.  So, this accident was a bit of a shock for me.  Talking to a friend when I reached home, he suggested that my car is too big. Too big? It's a Mazda 6! Imagine if I were driving a Mazda CX-7! Although my car is turning five in less than two months, mechanically, it is still in good condition. Change my car? I admit that it is a tempting thought but it is probably not financially prudent to do so.

However, a customer recently told me that the COE price is probably going to increase month after month because less vehicles are being scrapped.  This would mean that prices of cars would keep climbing. He said if anyone wants to buy a new car, it is now! Where is my chequebook?!

Then, talking to my mom after the "pillarising" experience, she suggested that I wait a couple of days and if I really want to get a new car, do it.  My mom is basically being very rational and hinting to me not to be impulsive, I'm sure. Cool down and think clearly. I just damaged my car. Do I want to damage my chequeing account too?

I took a shower and felt a bit better.  I went downstairs, washed my car and decided that I could live with the damage for another few years. Yes, you guessed it.  I don't think I will fix the dent and scratches although my dad might insist that I do.  Will see.

Usually, I could manage very tight turns but there were too many things on my mind today and I was kind of distracted.  Like I commented in one of my posts lately, work has been stressful. So, what is it about work that is stressful? Workload stress, I can handle but stress due to certain transgressions by people, I don't handle very well. It is the latter that has been bothering me in the last few days. People trying to take advantage of people and people not playing by the rules.


money love Pictures, Images and Photos

We could probably rationalise it in so many ways but it almost always boils down to money.  Radix malorum est cupiditas.  The love of money is the root of all evil.  How true.  Many will do so many things just for money, including creating trouble for other people.  It really gets to me.  Well, they don't say it is a dog eat dog world for no reason, right? Right.

Unfortunately, some of us have the thankless task of policing people. It is worse when we have a conscience! The task is not so distasteful if we were able to punish the transgressors, ensuring they would not do the same things again. It is when we are not able to do anything more than issuing warnings that it gets irksome. Imagine a toothless dog guarding a home. You get the idea.

If we keep doing the same things the same way, things will never change. So, what do we do? Make plans to change the way things are done or make plans to do different things. I know we might not have a choice sometimes but if we have a choice, we should remember that we have only one life to live and we owe it to ourselves to live it well.

LMIR: Selling pressure.

LMIR touched a low of 47.5c before closing at 48.5c, the immediate support identified previously.  That this support was breached on high volume is somewhat ominous for the counter. Remember that this support is also where we find the 200dMA.  Closing below this level would indicate a likely change in the longer term trend of the counter.




MFI has formed a lower high, suggesting decreased demand.  OBV shows a clear trend of distribution since accumulation peaked on 27 July.  MACD seems set to do a bearish crossover with the signal line as a red histogram appeared. Could we see more selling down? The possibility exists.

It would seem that I am not the only person disappointed with LMIR's latest set of numbers.

Related post:
LMIR: DPU reduced 20%.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Firm.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Lots of selling down today at 22.5c on what is a high volume day. Of the 4.107m units which changed hands, 2.219m were sold down at 22.5c. The selling down caused the MFI to break its recent uptrend support. The message? Demand has weakened.  However, the OBV is flat which suggests that even though demand has weakened, any selling is well absorbed and there is no visible distribution.




The MAs are all rising but we have a sell signal on the MACD histogram. So, prudence dictates against buying more units in the current time frame at the current price. The downside risk is quite real especially once the counter goes XD.  Of course, volume could suddenly expand if a pension fund or some such investor decides to buy up in the next session at 23c but that's pure speculation and falls in the realm of HA, not TA.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Steady performance.

Tea with AK71: Singapore is going strong.

Have you noticed how packed the malls are these days?  The fastfood joints are packing in the crowd even on weeknights.  Even the Econ Minimart near my place is crowded in the evenings.  What's happening? 

Singapore's economy is powering ahead and would probably take the number one spot as the country with the highest growth rate this year.  It is all very impressive but one wonders how much longer this level of growth could continue for.

The feel good factor has affected everyone for sure and two articles in Yahoo! Singapore, placed side by side, show consumer confidence alive and kicking here.

Serangoon condo sells like hotcakes
By Angela Lim – July 29th, 2010

Units at The Scala, in five residential towers, are between 472 and 2,142 sg ft each and range from one to four-bedroom apartments. They were sold at a whopping average price of S$1,150 per sq ft (psf), setting a new benchmark price for the area.

Demand for the remaining 300 units of the 99-year leasehold project near Lorong Chuan MRT station was so strong that organisers had to resort to balloting to decide who entered the showflats first.

Read article here.


Mad rush for Apple’s iPhone 4
By Ewen Boey – July 30th, 2010

SingTel’s iPhone 4s were available at their store at Marina Bay Sands, while M1 and StarHub had their launches at Paragon and Plaza Singapura respectively.

The M1 queue at Paragon was by far the longest as it snaked around the basement of the shopping mall, while customers at Starhub’s Plaza Singapura had to register first before joining the queue.

Read article here.

Should we start thinking like a contrarian? There is a saying in Chinese which translates to say "in times of peace, think of the potential pitfalls". Enjoy the good times but stay cautious.

Genting SP: Inverted white hammer.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Price touched a high of $1.29 before closing at $1.27, forming an inverted white hammer in the process.  This suggests some weakness: the upmove lacks conviction.  The unimpressive volume confirms this observation.




Although the OBV is still rising, suggesting continuing accumulation, there is some profit taking going on and a stalling demand.  This stall in demand is confirmed by a flat MFI which is bordering on overbought.

Many are expecting Genting SP to report a set of sterling numbers but till then, could we see price softening somewhat to retest support provided by the rising 20dMA? There is a chance and that might be an opportunity for any bulls on Genting SP to accumulate.


SPH: Rising on low volume.

Price broke out of the many times tested resistance of $4.08 today to close at $4.10.  However, the relatively low volume suggests that the price rose due to a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers.  So, it throws up the question of sustainability.




The fact that there is continuing accumulation is not in doubt.  The rising OBV confirms this.  The MFI has recaptured its uptrend support, it would seem, and this suggests a return of demand.

Lacklustre volume not withstanding, price could possibly rise further to retest $4.17 without a significant expansion in volume if selling pressure remains absent. Such a rise in price would, however, be very fragile.

NOL: Breakout.

NOL rose to close at its high of the day at $2.08 on significantly higher volume.  With this, it has broken out of the symmetrical triangle observed some time back.  OBV has been somewhat choppy but rising further would indicate increased accumulation.  MFI has formed an uptrend recently and this suggests increased demand. 




The next resistance is at $2.13, the high of 21 Jun which also did a gap fill then. This is a price which market participants are likely to remember. Taking this out convincingly would give an intial target of $2.28 as suggested by the 138.2% Fibo line.


CapitaMalls Asia: Shopping spree planned.

"CapitaMalls Asia (CMAL.SI) could spend as much as S$3 billion to develop or buy shopping malls in Singapore, Malaysia and China, by using some borrowings on top of the S$1 billion cash that it has, partly from the proceeds of listing CapitaMalls Malaysia Trusts (CAMA.KL), the local press reported, quoting CapitaMalls' chief executive." Thursday, 29 July 2010, The Edge Singapore.




 
This bit of news sent the share price of CapitaMalls Asia up today to close at $2.10 which is the resistance provided by the flat 50dMA.  The MACD has risen above the signal line in negative territory. MFI shows a sustained demand.  OBV shows accumulation.  Indeed, volume expanded more than three times over the previous session and is the highest since 12 Feb 2010. If the momentum continues, we could see price rising to retest the downtrend resistance which coincides with the declining 100dMA at about $2.16.

China Hongxing: Going higher?

China Hongxing breached 16c resistance and touched 16.5c briefly.  Closing at 16c, it is still resisted by the declining 200dMA.  This is a long term MA and unless volume expands significantly with any upmove, a breakout from the 200dMA is unlikely to be successful.




If we look at the volume, it has been declining as price tried to move higher in the last few sessions. Although not significantly so, it is nonetheless a negative divergence and calls for caution.

OBV is still rising strongly which means accumulation is still ongoing.  MFI and RSI have both risen high into overbought territories. Momentum is still positive but the risk of a pull back is definitely higher now.

Taking some profits off the table would seem like a prudent thing to do and if price goes parabolic in the next session, I would divest more as parabolas are usually unsustainable.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Target hit.

LMIR: DPU reduced 20%.

LMIR announced a DPU of 1.04c payable on 27 August 2010.  This is lower than the 1.2c paid in the last quarter. This is due to a higher realised loss on the foreign exchange forward contract. This reduced the funds available for distribution from S$13.9m in 2Q2009 to S$11.2m in 2Q2010.  So, although the net property income increased 17.1% year on year, DPU has reduced 20% year on year from 1.3c to 1.04c! 

I was under the impression that a foreign exchange forward contract is a hedge which would smooth out any currency fluctuations to help deliver a steady level of funds available for distribution, everything else remaining constant.  It seems that I was mistaken.

The issue that bothers me now is that the management has no intention of reviewing its practice, it seems: "Despite the realised loss in the current quarter, the Trust has entered into the foreign exchange forward contracts as a prudent measure to mitigate its exposure to fluctuations of income denominated in the IDR". See press release here.

Therefore, I would hold off plans to increase exposure to LMIR on possible future price weakness.



Technically, LMIR has been on a uptrend since hitting a low of 42c on 25 May. A combination of its uptrend support and the candlestick supports shows immediate support to be at 48.5c in the next session.


AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Steady performance.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has announced a DPU of 0.5376c payable on 16 Sep 2010. This is the same amount paid out in the last quarter and within my expectations since there has not been any significant material changes which would impact earnings. This represents an annual DPU of 2.1504c and an annualised yield of 9.35% based on the last traded price of 23c.



Technically, price is still range bound and capped by the long term resistance of 23c. MFI has turned down and it remains to be seen if it could bounce off its support. 22.5c is now the immediate support.


What could go wrong?

“The market is overbought and there is a renewed sense of complacency in the marketplace that I think could get shattered pretty quickly,” says the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto.
Posted Jul 28, 2010 11:18am EDT by Peter Gorenstein,Tech Ticker.



"In a country like North Korea, with conventional artillery lined up to literally obliterate Seoul within hours and with direct nuclear capacity and ballistic missile capacity, this is an unprecedented threat from a rogue state," Bremmer says. "Clearly there is a drumbeat in North Korea that they are trying to use to build patriotism and support for their own regime. The question is: how far do they have to go?"

Bremmer goes on to say that the markets have largely ignored South Korea's precarious situation. They should pay attention because Kim Jong-il wields enormous power and no one knows what he is capable of, including his presumed benefactors in China.

"So if this continues to escalate, and so far all indications are that it will, it is going to start creating an awful lot of concern on the ground with some economies that really matter to the world," he says.
Posted Jul 28, 2010 08:00am EDT by Keegan Bales, Tech Ticker.

Genting SP: Doji.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Genting SP formed a doji today, a sign of indecision. Volume shrank today which is a sign that most people are staying sidelined. This stalemate is confirmed by the OBV which has gone flat. The MFI which has been rising and bordered on overbought has declined slightly.




Genting SP might just be taking a breather although with MFI almost overbought and RSI high in overbought territory, one wonders if it is ripe for a correction. Any pull back should see initial support at $1.20, a many times tested resistance level before and should be a strong support.  This, incidentally, is also where we would find the rising 20dMA in the next session.


SPH: Retesting resistance.

SPH closed at $4.08 today, retesting the resistance identified some time back. This is the third time it has hit $4.08 since 16 July. Could it overcome this resistance soon?




Note the falling volume as price tried to move higher.  The MFI has also broken down from its uptrend. Demand is flagging. OBV, however, is rising somewhat after a brief decline, suggesting renewed accumulation but the gradient is gentler now and one could even say it's flat as it is more or less the same level now as it was on 16 July. What am I trying to say? The technicals are relatively weaker now.

However, the 20dMA is still rising strongly and if price manages to stay above the 20dMA in the near term, SPH could be doing a correction using time and the 20dMA could push the price past $4.08 eventually.  Keep an eye on the OBV.  If it stays flat while the MFI declines, it would mean a lack of distribution and this might prevent price from sinking too much even as demand weakens.

Immediate support is at $3.98.  This is where we find the rising 20dMA and it is also a natural candlestick support level.  Good luck to fellow shareholders.

China Hongxing: Target hit.

On 24 June, I wrote "With momentum oscillators turning up strongly, we could possibly see 16c tested." Today, China Hongxing hit the breakout target of 16c.  What next?




The OBV shows a sharp increase in accumulation.  No distribution is taking place yet, it seems.  However, MFI and RSI have both pushed into overbought territories. Also, notice the negative divergence between price and volume. A pull back in the near future is not unrealistic. Immediate support is at 14.5c followed by a stronger support at 13.5c. Remember, it's all about probabilities.

What would I do? I would lock in some gains. If I were to stay vested, it would be with a smaller position at this point in time. Congratulations to anyone who made money from this and if you see fit to contribute to my pocket money fund, thank you too. ;)

Related post:
China Hongxing: Breakout.

Mapletree Log: Acquires properties in Japan.

Mapletree Logistics Trust (a Temasek linked REIT), has shown its confidence in the Japanese economy by acquiring three distribution centres in Japan for a total of JPY13b or S$200m.

"MapletreeLog says it has sufficient financial flexibility and capacity to fund the Acquisition which is expected to be completed by end 3Q 2010. The purchase price and other acquisition costs of the properties will be fully funded by debt, which will bring MapletreeLog’s gearing level to 43.6%, after taking into account all acquisitions announced to date." (The Edge, 28 July 10, 13.23)

Its presentation slides show these acquisitions to be yield accretive. The investment would generate a return of 7.3% per annum.  At the last traded price of 88c, the yield is currently about 6.8%. These Japanese properties are likely to bump up DPU by 5.6% per annum. The properties are also freehold in nature.  No "depreciation". See presentation slides here.

Having said this, with these latest acquisitions, gearing level would be pushed up to 43.6%.  One wonders if Mapletree Log would go to unitholders with hat in hand in the near future or, perhaps, do a share placement.


 

Alexa

I stumbled upon this today. I was totally blown away.  This is a web information company and it has analyses of all the websites in the world.  Well, it certainly looks that way to me.

I entered my blog's URL in the search bar and a one page analysis appeared.  Amazing!

According to Alexa:
Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has a three-month global Alexa traffic rank of 667,393. Roughly 33% of visits to the site consist of only one pageview (i.e., are bounces). Visitors to the site spend approximately two minutes on each pageview and a total of ten minutes on the site during each visit. Visitors to the site view an average of 2.5 unique pages per day, and Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has been online for at least nine years.

Alexa Traffic Rank - 667,393 
Traffic Rank in SG - 3,808

I don't know about the rest of the information but my blog is not nine years old. So, perhaps, we should not take Alexa too seriously.  Having said this, I am still amazed by this service.  No wonder they say there are no secrets on the internet. We have to be careful of what we do in cyberspace!

Visit Alexa here.

A movie: The Last Airbender.


I have watched the animation series and I have played the game on the Nintendo DS.  It's time to watch the movie!

Healthway Medical: Going down?

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

What is happening to Healthway Medical's share price, some might ask?  Since 5 July, price has only closed above the declining 20dMA twice. In the last five sessions, share price closed at 18.5c, the immediate support. The question on shareholders' minds is whether this support level will hold.  Will it? I don't know. What an answer, right?  Well, TA cannot tell us things like that. It's always a question of probability.  So, might it?  Let us examine some technical indicators.




The declining 20dMA suggests a short term downtrend.  Price closing at 18.5c for five sessions in a row is bearish but note the volume.  It has been thinning as price declined.  A low volume pull back?  Good for the bulls. The MFI has been forming higher lows and the OBV has declined ever so slightly.  Both indicators suggest that there is some underlying support. Again, good for the bulls.  So, 18.5c immediate support might hold.

What if 18.5c breaks?  Well, the longer term MAs are still rising.  The 50dMA should provide some support at 18c in case 18.5c cracks.  Unless there is a significant expansion in volume with any selling down, the 100dMA which is currently at 17c is unlikely to be tested as a support in the immediate future.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 16 Jul 10 (Part 2).

Charts in brief: 26 Jul 10.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Genting SP: Volume expanded today as price closed at $1.24.  The MACD seems poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line. Momentum is looking good and one wonders if $1.20 is now resistance turned support. Needs confirmation. However, if one looks at going above $1.20 as a breakout, this is a very "quiet" breakout with rather modest volume. Is it durable?






CapitaMalls Asia:  Downtrend intact with today's black candle. OBV has formed a lower high, suggesting ongoing distribution activity. The descending 20dMA is preventing further gains. We could be seeing the beginnings of a descending triangle pattern if the downward pressure continues. Immediate resistance at $2.06 and immediate support at $2.02.




FSL Trust: Results were announced today with 2Q FY10 DPU at US0.95¢.  Volume rose today and there was much selling down of its units.  In spite of this, price remained unchanged at 42c.  This is a sign of strength as it means staying above the 50dMA.  MFI continues to rise, suggesting increased demand.  OBV is rising, suggesting continuing accumulation. There is some underlying support for this counter.  20dMA continues to rise and we might be in for a golden cross with the 50dMA soon.






SPH: The MFI has broken its uptrend support, suggesting a weakening demand. This coupled with the MACD set to do a bearish crossover with the signal line, a retracement to the 20dMA cannot be ruled out.  This is currently at $3.95 which is also an important candlestick resistance turned support. Volume has been reducing as price pulled back.  This is good news for bulls.  Support at $4.00 seems shaky and if this goes, I would keep an eye on $3.95 to see if it holds up as the next support.




Some views from Marc and Jim.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Marc Faber thinks that the Fed would embark on more quantitative easing (aka print more money) in September or October:



Jim Rogers says to buy silver as it is 70% below its all time high:



Jim Rogers also mentioned that sugar is a good investment because a lot of it is being used in the production of alternative fuel.  Now, with the US limiting offshore drilling for crude oil, shortages might develop and that could mean higher crude oil prices in future.  I would keep an eye on CPO price which has been recovering strongly lately.  That affects CPO counters like Golden Agriculture.

Related posts:
Gold or silver?
Why Golden Agriculture?

Do this if you want a good career and life!


(Less attractive people make US$230,000 lesser over their lifetime. About 10,000 people a month Google "Am I ugly?")
UPDATED (2 Jan 17):
AK is very consistent and he is consistently kaypoh. So, what triggered this update to a blog penned in 2010? I saw this advertisement:

Read my blog and do this? I will slap you! 
Know someone who wants to do this? Slap!

Hairy and ladies like them what.
--------------------------
I am reading Newsweek (26 July issue) and they have an article titled "The Beauty Advantage". The topic on looks is, of course, quite common and it is something I have heard talked about before but it is still an eye opener to be reading it in print, not in Her World or Cleo, but in Newsweek.  

In case you are wondering, yes, I have flipped through Her World and Cleo before.  I am sure I am not the only guy who has done it before... ahem.




BEAUTY CAN AFFECT YOUR JOB, YOUR CAREER, YOUR LIFE.  

Here are some numbers:


61% of hiring managers surveyed by Newsweek said it's advantageous for a woman to show off her figure in the workplace.

57% of corporate managers said landing a job is harder for an unattractive candidate.

About 60% of overweight women and 40% of overweight men said they've experienced employment discrimination.

59% of hiring managers said they'd advise job candidates to spend as much money on looks as on their resume.

I remember reading somewhere when I was in my late teens that models could make upwards of $10,000 a month! 

I remember Henry Tee, who was a young model and aspiring TV actor then, being reported as making $5,000 a month!  That's a lot of money twenty years ago (and is still a lot of money now).  

Then, I wondered why I wasn't born with good looks. If I was born with good looks, I could make lots of money just by smiling for cameras. Sigh. So, what's new. Life is unfair, isn't it?

If you look at the numbers above, overweight women have it really bad.  So, it's not just weightism working here, it's also sexism!  

An overweight man is perceived to be less unattractive (and probably more productive) compared to an overweight woman? Sheesh. 

I have the good fortune of knowing some pretty large ladies who are very efficient workers.  I have also seen some really pretty ladies who spent a lot of time looking good and, er, just looked good.

Anyway, like they say, this is an imperfect world. 

I should count my blessings. I mean, I could be an overweight woman and be really discriminated against, right?

Read Newsweek article online: 
The beauty advantage.

A movie: Inception.

Went to the movies today and at the end of it, I told my friend whom I watched the movie with that it has been a long time since I watched a movie that required some effort to understand. Once I understood the theory which was the backbone of the movie, I enjoyed it.  5 minutes in the real world would yield 60 minutes in the dream world.  So, if we dreamt while we slept for 8 hours, imagine how much time that would give us in the dream world.  The movie I am talking about is "Inception".




It gets weirder.  Dreaming within a dream would give us even more time in a deeper dream world.  A dream within a dream within a dream could give us decades in an even deeper dream world, allowing much more time to do all the things we ever wanted to do.  Of course, these things would be accomplished in our dreams and not in the real world.  That gives a twist to the saying: "In your dreams!", does it not?

This also reminds me of a saying by Zhuang Zi, "Was I a man dreaming that I was a butterfly or was I a butterfly dreaming that I was a man?"

All said, it is nice to have dreams.  Just watch out for the nightmares.

Official website: Inception.

Charts in brief: 23 Jul 10.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: I was at a friend's house warming and we talked about the stock market a bit and his broker said that this REIT has a very low market capitalisation.  So, it was not on his radar screen.  Actually, I like the sound of that because it would give me more time to accumulate at lower prices.  However, with recent increased accumulation activity as suggested by the OBV's direction, I suspect more are taking note of this REIT's high yield, large discount to NAV and relatively low gearing.  Looking at the candlesticks, it seems that a new support level has been established at 22c in the near term.  Is this sustainable? With all the MAs rising, it might be. The MFI broke out of its downtrend decisively four sessions ago which signals a return of demand. Any further upmove in price would see a retest of the resistance at 23c.




Genting SP: Price has finally closed above $1.20 in the last session.  At $1.21, could it go higher? From 21 June, when price first touched a high of $1.21, volume has been shrinking as intraday price range became narrower and narrower. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies.  Without any expansion in volume in a move up in price, bulls do have cause to worry. It is encouraging that the MFI has moved out of resistance and this shows a return of demand.  However, OBV is flattish which suggests that there is a stalemate between accumulation and distribution despite a return of demand.  Things still look dicey and I would keep an eye on the support provided by the 20dMA which is currently at $1.18.




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