Building and preserving our wealth.

When I was a secondary two student, I had to write an essay on whether television had brought more harm than good to our society?  The internet did not exist then. To own a 25 inch CRT TV set was a BIG thing.  I doubt school teachers would set an essay question like that today.

Well, I remember giving it much thought and decided that the television was just a tool and whether it did good or harm depended on how we used the tool.  This is true with any other tool as well.  A tool is just a tool.  How we use the tool is the important thing.  Similarly, in the world of investment, there are many tools at our disposal. All these tools, if used appropriately, could boost our wealth.

Human society has grown more complicated from the days of Socrates and Plato.  In those days, scholars were learned in different aspects of life.  As our knowledge base widened over time, we built colleges and universities. Within these institutions, we find different faculties and within faculties, we find different departments and within departments, we find different subjects.  Scholars have become specialists and not generalists in modern society.

We classify things, putting things in neat boxes with labels, to manage the complexities of modernity. This promotes efficiency as it helps us know exactly where things are and what they do.  However, compartmentalising also masks finer details which could set apart one item from another in the same box.

Two of the boxes in the world of investment are labeled "Blue Chips" and "REITs". 

Some prefer Blue Chips, believing that these are strong companies with stable dividend payouts with a nice possibility of share price appreciation.  I have been a shareholder of SPH and ST Engineering for as long as I can remember.  I was also a shareholder of Chartered Semiconductor and, unfortunately, I remember this too.  Certainly, not all Blue Chips are created equal.

Are REITs then all created equal?  Most certainly not. Some are stronger and better than others. REITs are primarily income instruments but they are not just income instruments.  Like any counter traded in the stock market, REITs have the ability to appreciate in price.  If they have the ability to appreciate in price, are they beginning to sound like certain entities with stable dividend payouts with a nice possibility of share price appreciation?  In fact, many S-REITs are now trading above their NAV.  There are still many S-REITs out there which offer value as they are still trading below NAV, have high yields and relatively low gearing levels.  The attraction of high yields coupled with the possibility of capital appreciation is universal.

Any undervalued counters could appreciate nicely in price once discovered by enough people who believe in them.  It does not matter if they are REITs or companies. The risks and rewards of investing in companies and REITs are similar, if we think of it less dogmatically.  Invest in the right ones and we could be rewarded. Invest in the wrong ones and we're sunk.  There are certain characteristics of a REIT which make it a REIT and not a company, for sure, but I would stop there and not over read.

Some might say that REITs are for the rich or the rich and old because these people don't need to grow their wealth aggressively, that they just need regular passive income since their wealth is sizeable already. I do not think that this is entirely correct as there could be the not so rich or the not so rich and young who just want to make sure that their wealth is not being eroded by inflation.  Choosing the right REITs could do this for these people. So, REITs are not just for the rich or the rich and old.  What we choose to invest in would depend on our motivations for being in the stock market in the first instance.

Finally, most wealthy people are wealthy because they run successful businesses. For most of us, having a well paying job and having good money management habits are the bedrock to building our wealth. Whether we choose to invest in Blue Chips or REITs later on could then build and preserve our wealth at the same time. Indeed, why not invest in both? I am not religious about either one.

Treasury China Trust: A chat with Nick.

While chatting with Nick earlier this evening in LP's cbox, he said that he is looking at Treasury China Trust (TCT). A trust to consider for passive income plus growth, perhaps? The following exchange is reproduced with Nick's permission:

Nick @ Home: Treasury China Trust is an interesting company to ride the property boom in China. I must study it more
Nick @ Home: Trading at 70% discount to its NAV......
AK71 @ home: 70% discount to NAV?!
Nick @ Home: Yea...despite owning 3 high quality assets
AK71 @ home: what's the gearing?
Nick @ Home: 35%
Nick @ Home: Debt: S$658 million. Asset: $1.94 billion
AK71 @ home: debt profile?
Nick @ Home: Debts was recently refinanced...mature in 2015
Nick @ Home: Interest expense will be halved
AK71 @ home: hmmm... nice yield?
Nick @ Home: DPU forecast is $0.05. They will use equity (profits earned from property sales last year) to fund dividend payout near term. Once their development projects come online, they expect cash-flow to triple.
Nick @ Home: From now to 2012, dividend payout ratio will be 80% after which it will drop to 50% to fund more development projects
AK71 @ home: very promising... sounds tempting
Nick @ Home: This year yield will be around 3%...I guess with the rising rentals and lower interest expense, DPU can rise in 2011....in 2012, its development projects come online and DPU should increase significantly
Nick @ Home: But being a development trust, it has a growth element inside unlike a REIT
Nick @ Home: So its yield won't be high but it more growth potential since they can build and sell assets to other REITs haha
AK71 @ home: huge interest in the last 2 sessions
Nick @ Home: Yea...they announced that they renew their lease at over 8% higher rates
AK71 @ home: short term overbought but very strong momentum...
AK71 @ home: $1.60 is resistance turned support... can consider Nick @ Home: http://www.treasurychinatrust.com/
Nick @ Home: JP Morgan gave a very bullish report on 16 August
Nick @ Home: available in the tct website JP Morgan's report at this link: http://www.treasurychinatrust.com/Pics/httpmarklogic-b.jpmchase.net8005GPS-434739-0.pdf

Healthway Medical: Up or down?

Price hit 16c on 31 Aug.  That was exactly on the rising 200dMA.  Today, the counter hit a high of 17.5c.  Technically, 17.5c is a formidable resistance level as it is a many times tested resistance and it is also where we find the declining 20dMA and the flat 100dMA.  Healthway Medical is at a critical crossroads, it would seem.

Looking at the 20dMA, there is no doubt that the counter is in a downtrend in the short term. With the 50dMA declining as well and the 100dMA flatlined, the short term picture is not encouraging.  However, the 200dMA is still rising and if it holds, Healthway Medical could just be going through a period of consolidation.

Today's upward movement in price is probably in response to the oversold situation as suggested by the RSI which has risen out of the oversold territory. The MFI, which has been rising since 18 Aug, signalling a return of demand, however weak, is testing the downtrend resistance.  If it breaks this in the next session, it would provide some much needed momentum to help push price higher.

The MACD, although still declining in negative territory, is seeing its distance with the signal line narrowing and we could be seeing the early stages of a bullish crossover. Remember, TA is about probabilities, not absolutes. Punters could make some nice gains here if everything pans out nicely.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: A low of 16c.

MIIF: Seeing value.

I used to have a very large position in MIIF about a year ago but I've divested most of it.  I still have a smallish investment left in the trust but I am not really doing anything with it.  It broke out yesterday and I blogged about it.  See: MIIF: Breakout.

Today, I received this very interesting email from The EDGE and it seems that we could see MIIF's price going higher in the near future:

Market punters have been fixated on Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund of late, a mutual fund which owns four assets. After selling British broadband operator Arqiva for $238.4 million and Canadian Aged Care for $91 million this March, the fund now owns primarily Asian assets. These are a 38% stake in Changshu Xinghua Port (Jiangsu), an 81% interest in Hua Nan Expressway in Guangdong, 20% stake in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC) and a 100% stake in Miaoli Wind, a wind farm in Taiwan.
                   

For 1H10, MIIF announced a distribution of 1.5 cents per share which will be paid on Sept 9. The fund has no borrowings at the corporate level, cash of 36 cents per share, and NAV is 80 cents. Dividends for 2H10 are expected to be maintained, and Macquarie Research has forecast a full-year dividend of three cents for FY10, rising to 3.4 cents for FY11.
 

Why have investors suddenly woken up to the value in MIIF? In a tough market, investing in an infrastructure trust offers yield potential and turnaround potential if it sells its assets. And it isn’t quite the same as investing in property via REITs. For one thing, China isn’t clamping down on infrastructure investment. On the contrary, the country continues to build roads, railroads, renewable energy assets and money is still available to fund their construction.

However, the real reason for the interest in MIIF is probably not China but Taiwan. In the past few months, there has been corporate activity in the broadband and cable TV industry on the island. Taiwan-exchange listed Kbro, owned by Carlyle, was sold in July to the Tsai family, who are Taiwan Mobile’s shareholders. Reuters reported that the price was around NT$65 billion ($2.7 billion), implying a 12–13x EV/EBITDA multiple.
                

Macquarie Research says such pricing implies that TBC is worth NT$51 billion. If so, MIIF’s interest is worth $221 million, the research report states. In 2007, the fund acquired the stake for just $161 million. Meanwhile, another Taiwanese broadband company, CNS, is being auctioned off by MBK Partners and Macquarie Bank and Providence Equity Partners were identified by Reuters as bidders. Macquarie Research says that MIIF could sell its stake in TBC to Macquarie and Providence which could use TBC to acquire CNS. A sale of TBC would add 14 cents to MIIF’s cash balance, Macquarie Research says. TBC accounts for 17% of MIIF’s asset base.
 

Already, MIIF’s discount to its NAV has been narrowing, from almost 70% to the current 30%. Macquarie Research has a target of 70 cents for MIIF. On Aug 26, MIIF announced that Macquarie Bank had raised its stake from 8.88% to 9.06%.

The EDGE Weekend Comment Sept 3, Goola Warden.
Disclaimer: The Edge Publishing Pte Ltd does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use of information or opinions in this newsletter. The information and opinions are not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell any of the companies discussed.

China Hongxing: Taking a break?

On 1 Sep, I suggested that the technicals were pretty strong and the immediate target of 19.5c seemed attainable.  In the last two sessions, however, volume shrank as price got stuck between resistance turned support of 17c and what is now the near term resistance at 18c.

The MFI is declining and it could decline further to retest the support line which would approximate 50% soon.  This could happen if the volume simply declines further without the price having to decline below 17c.  This is a likely scenario given a picture of constant accumulation as suggested by a rising OBV.  A slowdown in momentum is good as some weaker holders are weeded out.

In case 17c support is broken, there should be a rather strong support at 16c.  This is a many times tested resistance and should be a strong support, if tested.  16c is also where we would find the rising 20dMA in the next session.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Immediate target in sight?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Sell the rights.

Now, this blog post's title might make it look as if I have changed my mind about the REIT.  No, I have not.

Some people are wondering if they should accept and pay for the rights or if they should just sell the rights away.  To me, it is a no brainer to accept and pay 15.5c for the rights shares.  With a DPU of 2.08c per annum estimated, post rights, the yield is a most irresistable 13.42%!  In fact, we should apply for excess rights and hope to get more units at 15.5c.

Well, that's all very nice but what if we have no money to pay for the rights or what if we simply do not want to fork out more money? Would our stakes be heavily diluted? Apart from the NTA per unit declining from 31c to 26c, the dilutive effect is not as bad as some opponents to REITs make it out to be.

REITs are income instruments.  Therefore, we must remember that we are investing in REITs for regular income.  The DPU per unit would decline from 2.15c to 2.08c, post rights.  This is a DPU loss of 0.07c a year.  It is not dramatic.  We would also be able to sell away the nil-paid rights when trading starts.  At an exercise price of 15.5c and with expectations that price would see a modest decline to 21c per unit, post rights, we can expect the nil-paid rights to trade at around 5.5c each.  Selling these away would bag 30 months' worth of DPU (post rights) straightaway!  Now, is that such a bad thing?

On top of that, our current investment would still make an annual DPU of 2.08c!  This is provided that everything remains constant, of course.

Accept and pay for the rights or sell away as nil-paid rights, either way, unit holders end up winners.  There will always be detractors but as long as we are clear headed and know what to do in any given scenario, we will be fine.  Good luck to fellow unit holders.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights issue.

Saizen REIT: Something is brewing?

While chatting in Bully the Bear's cbox, I shared my observation that a certain substantial shareholder seems to be tightening their grip on Saizen REIT.  In fact, they were just accorded two non-executive directorships on the board.  Saizen REIT also gained a CO-CEO, Mr. Koh.  Our dear Mr. Chang is now a CO-CEO too.  Power sharing.  Interesting.  What could be afoot?

Technically, Saizen REIT seems to have turned somewhat bullish although it is early days yet.  The MACD has turned up as the histogram turned green. The MFI is still in oversold territory but it is turning up, possibly forming a double bottom.  The OBV has turned up sharply, suggesting a return of accumulation activities.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: More insider moves.

MIIF: Breakout.

There was a sudden rush to accumulate units in MIIF today as volume expanded and price touched a high of 56.5c before closing at 55.5c.  The many times tested resistance of 53c could possibly be the new support. This needs confirmation.  In case of a breakdown, the 50dMA would be a crucial MA to watch as it served as support very nicely before pushing the price up.

The MACD which was declining until two sessions ago has turned up, completing a bullish crossover. A rising MFI with higher lows shows rising demand and a rising OBV shows accumulation. None of the momentum oscillators are overbought and we could see price go higher if the volume continues to expand.  We could even see a retest of the 12 months high of 58c.  Good luck to fellow unit holders.

Genting SP: Flip flop.

As I was advising caution on Genting SP, some analysts are turning cautious on Genting SP as well, it seems.

Genting Singapore off 1.1%; Gaming demand slows: UOB. UOB KayHian, which has Hold call with $1.59 target, says its own checks show gaming activity at Resorts World Sentosa over July-August points to noticeably weaker 3Q10 vs 2Q10, with traffic in August affected by “hungry ghost” month.
Thursday, 02 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting Singapore down 2.2%; Overbought: DBS Vickers.
Thursday, 02 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Genting SP: An amazing run.

Genting SP: An amazing run.

Genting SP has amazed me with its continuing upward move in price. Many punters must have made good money here.  Congratulations!

Volume has expanded for three straight sessions as price pushed higher.  The volume, although higher, is not dramatically so and there is, therefore, a suggestion that price could be rising from a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers. The MFI has just joined the RSI in overbought territory and the risk of going long at this point in time is surely higher. OBV shows consistent accumulation and it seems that the party could continue for a bit more but when would it come to an end as all parties do? No one knows and I would advise caution.

Related post:
Genting SP: Twin spinning tops.

Genting Singapore rises to record on earnings outlook
Wednesday, 01 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

SPH: Another white candle.

My favourite blue chip is in top form and has been advancing for several days in a row.  Today, another white candle was formed as price closed at the high of $4.13.  Could we see a retest of $4.20?

Some analysts are saying that there could be a bumper dividend and that is driving accumulation.  Some people are saying that it is just quarterly window dressing and that it is just a blip.  Which camp is right?  I don't know but volume has been pretty high in the last two sessions as MACD formed a bullish crossover and rose in positive territory. The MFI has formed an almost straight line up and seems set to cross into overbought territory in the next session. RSI has already peeked into overbought territory.  OBV, although rising, does not show very strong accumulation activity.

What would I do? If SPH does retest $4.20, I expect that to be a strong resistance as many who missed selling then would sell now.  So, I would sell some at $4.20 and buy back if price retraces to the 20dMA.  Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
SPH: Doji at $4.00.

SPH +0.7%; More upside as bumper dividend eyed: UOB
Wednesday, 01 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Breaking out.

Yesterday, I mentioned Golden Agriculture's "next resistance is at 57c. This is where we find the declining 20dMA and the downtrend line." Today, it broke this resistance level in a most convincing manner as volume expanded significantly.  Price touched a high of 58.5c before closing at 58c.

58.5c is a many times tested resistance level and one wonders if this could be taken out as we eye 62c, the longer term resistance which I said could possibly be tested.

Technically, chances are good with both the MFI and RSI rising strongly. Being at around 50%, they are nowhere near overbought and they could go much higher.  The OBV shows accumulation.  The MACD seems ready for a bullish crossover.  Most importantly, volume is the fuel that drives rallies and this has been increasing nicely.  Let us see if this continues to be the case.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Moving higher?

China Hongxing: Immediate target in sight?

On 27 August, I mentioned that "China Hongxing's volume expanded today as it retested resistance at 17c. Unlike in early August, the technicals are now looking much stronger and China Hongxing's share price could break 17c this time round."  Today, China Hongxing closed at 18c on high volume.

The MACD has completed a bullish crossover in positive territory. The MFI is rising, forming higher lows, suggesting strong demand and it is nowhere near overbought yet. OBV shows no sign of distribution and accumulation is powering ahead. RSI is just peeking into overbought. Overall, the immediate target of 19.5c identified on 27 August seems attainable.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Retesting resistance.

Saizen REIT: More insider moves.

A substantial shareholder of Saizen REIT, V-Nee Yeh, increased deemed interest in Saizen REIT from 20.201 % to 21.976 % (209,572,352 units).  This is a consequence of the open market purchase of units by ASM Hudson River Fund,  ASM Asia Recovery (Master) Fund and HC Capital Limited.

AND

Chang Sean Pey, CEO of Saizen REIT, converted 842,000 warrants into 842,000 new units.  He now holds 2,200,000 units of Saizen REIT.  This is 0.23% of total issued capital.

The percentage figure of issued share capital (after the transaction) was calculated based on Saizen REIT’s total issued 956,304,205 units as at 30 August 2010. It should also be noted that Saizen REIT had 490,053,212 warrants outstanding as at 30 August 2010.

Related post: 
Saizen REIT: Insiders buy.

Healthway Medical: A low of 16c.

On 17 August, I mentioned that "there is a chance price could decline further.  If it happens, the next support is at 16c." Price touched a low of 16c today on moderate volume.  16c is also where we find the rising 200dMA today. Could this support hold?

The MFI has formed lower highs which suggests weakening demand but it recently emerged from the oversold territory which suggests the return of some demand, although weak.  The OBV does not show any drastic distribution activity while the RSI continues to decline in oversold territory, suggesting that the selling might be overdone.  Lacking in positive catalyst, this counter's price could, however, trade lower.

Taking a look at the weekly chart, we see the 50dMA at 15.5c and this would be a stronger support.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: 17c support.

Golden Agriculture: Moving higher?

The fundamentals of CPO remain good and the recent price weakness in Golden Agriculture was accompanied by rather light volumes. Price broke resistance at 55.5c in today's session and closed at 56c.  55.5c is where we find the 50dMA.  Next resistance is at 57c. This is where we find the declining 20dMA and the downtrend line.  If this resistance level is taken out, we could possibly see the longer term resistance at 62c retested.

The MFI is rebounding from a low while the RSI has risen out of the oversold region. The MACD's decline in negative territory has halted and it is pointing slightly upwards.

Aug 31: Golden Agri, Kim Eng, Yangzijiang, Ezra. Crude palm oil for November delivery increased 1.1% in Kuala Lumpur yesterday, extending its three-day advance to 3.4%.
Tuesday, 31 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Breaking the 200dMA.

Saizen REIT: Insiders buy.

Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon, a director of Saizen REIT, made open market purchases of 2,584,000 units which bumps up his deemed stake from 1,262,100 units to 3,846,100 units. The units are held under HSBC (Singapore) Nominees Pte. Ltd.

A substantial shareholder, Argyle Street Management Limited, made open market purchases which increased its deemed stake from 166,340,912 units to 175,048,912 units.  Kin Chan, who is the beneficial holder of more than 20% of the issued share capital of Argyle Street Management, increased the stake further to 177,469,217 units.  This is 18.609 % of the issued capital of the REIT.

The percentage figure (after the transaction) is calculated based on Saizen REIT’s total issued 953,657,355 Units as at 27 August 2010. It should also be noted that Saizen REIT has 492,700,062 warrants in issue as at 27 August 2010.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Better than expected DPU.

Tea with AK71: Bought an iPhone 4, almost.

I am an techno dinosaur.  Till today, I do not know how to use Excel.  When a reader asked if I would consider starting a Tweeter account, I couldn't figure out the reason why I should start one. At a recent visit to a customer's shop, one person asked how many in the room had an iPhone and I was the only one who did not answer in the affirmative. Why an iPhone? Maybe, I am an endangered species.

A few weeks ago, I read that people were selling their iPhone 4s at $1,300 to $1,400 at Sim Lim Square! They would re-contract, get their iPhone 4s and sell them for a quick buck.  Does it really work? Recently, my contract came to an end and remembering what I read, I went to Singtel to see if I could get an iPhone 4 and, perhaps, make a quick buck in the process too.

Here's the deal: I had to pay $480 for a new iPhone 4 and upgrade my plan which means paying an additional $20 per month.  I did some math. It worked out to be $480 + $20*24 = $960.  I figured if I could sell the phone for $1,300, I would make $340 right away!  That's not bad.  So, I told the salesman I would take the iPhone 4. 

The salesman gave me a look, that kind that suggested he had seen my type before. Was I that obvious? Maybe, I took too long to do my mental sums.  He asked in a voice that sounded rather bored if I had made a reservation.  A reservation?  Yes, apparently, we had to make a reservation to get an iPhone 4 as there was a long line of people waiting! 

Wow!  Apple is definitely rolling in the dough.  This is the best kind of business to be in, goods are presold and no stocking is required.  A HTC or a Samsung and I would not have to wait.  Nokia only came to mind belatedly.

Anyway, I went ahead and made the reservation after being advised that it would take about 3 weeks before I could get the phone.  I then found out that evening that the price of the iPhone 4 had fallen to $1,080 in Sim Lim Square.  Apparently, the price was very high weeks ago because of shortages.  The supply is not so tight now.  I was too slow. 

I could still make $120 at $1,080 but the price could drop more in another 3 weeks while I waited for my phone. Sheesh! So much work for so little profit plus lots of uncertainty thrown in.  I will stick to a free phone.

Invest in Asian equities and inflation is here to stay.

Invest in Asian equities and forget US Government bonds (Marc Faber on CNBC, 16 Aug 10):



Inflation in Asia is here to stay.  0.125% per annum in interest payment from savings accounts in Singapore banks will erode your wealth:



Related post:
Grow your wealth and beat inflation.

Marc Faber is right again.

"More quantitative easing by the US Fed in September or October", Faber predicted in July, 2010:



It seems that Dr. Doom is right again and it is probably good news for equities:



The Fed "will do all that it can" to support the economy, he said, including "provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if its proves necessary."

At the top of Bernanke's ‘tool box' are "additional purchases of longer-term securities," including Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. 

Posted Aug 27, 2010 01:35pm EDT by Aaron Task


Oh, stay away from long term US Government Bonds and buy some gold and silver (Marc Faber on CNBC, 16 Aug 10):




Related post:
Marc Faber: S&P will not fall below 1,010.
Gold: To buy or not to buy.

Hock Lian Seng: Steady accumulation.

Hock Lian Seng's share price retested resistance at 30c. That a gravestone doji was formed in the process suggests that there are many willing sellers at the current level. However, look at the OBV and we see a picture of steady accumulation.  The MFI has formed higher lows which suggests strengthening demand.  So, the sellers at 30c will probably be taken out in good time.

The 20dMA continues to rise and could provide immediate support at 29c.  Breaking 30c resistance would give an immediate target of 31.5c.

SPH: Doji at $4.00.

SPH's price action formed a doji, closing at the $4 resistance level. With the 20dMA still declining and the MACD in negative territory, there is a chance that price could continue lower in the next week.

The MFI has been forming lower highs and the recent uptick in price could be a weak rebound, therefore. For sure, OBV is lacklustre and does not suggest any accumulation activity. Immediate support is found at $3.92, as provided by the 100dMA although a stronger support is at $3.80 or so, which is where we find the 200dMA.  Judging from the high of $4.20 on 30 July and the current resistance of $4.00, $3.80 is also a technical downside target in case of a continuing decline in price.