AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Good value.

On 28 Sep, I mentioned that I bought more units at 21.5c believing that the REIT still offered good value at this price with a yield of 9.67%.  I also said that "21.5c is psychologically important as it is the midpoint of the old trading range of 20c to 23c".

Today, we see some quiet buying up in this REIT. Of the 2,085 lots which changed hands, 1,672 lots were bought up at 22.5c. Technically, this has created a buy signal in the MACD histogram. The MFI has just dipped into oversold territory while the RSI is bordering on oversold.

There are some who believe that the price would suffer on the 15th when the rights units commence trading with pessimistic forecasts of as low as 20c. If people are willing to sell at 20c, well, I am willing to buy as that would give me a yield of 10.4% per annum.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Cheaper please.

Genting SP: Fatigue.

Price gapped down today and formed a doji, closing at $2.03. It is quite obvious now that a lower high was formed yesterday and price is being supported by the 20dMA today. That the 20dMA was breached as recently as last week does not inspire confidence that it would be a strong support.

The MACD histogram has turned red, a sell signal, while the MACD continues its decline beneath the signal line in positive territory. The correction has resumed. MFI and RSI both formed lower highs which suggest reduced demand and slowing buying momentum. OBV suggests ongoing distribution.

Unless there is a sudden spike in volume in buying up, the odds are that prices could move lower and the next support, if $2 should break, is at $1.85.  Of course, just as prices do not move up in a straight line, prices would not move down in a straight line either. There is always a river of hope.

K-REIT: Immediate target.

I suggested that K-REIT's price action could be falling into trading bands.  If we look at the chart, it seems quite obvious.  Today, price traded at and above $1.34, the resistance identified on 14 Sep when I said "K-REIT seems to be trading in a 6c trading range recently: $1.16 to $1.22 and $1.22 to $1.28".  I also said "in the event that $1.28 resistance is taken out, one could therefore expect $1.34 to be the next resistance level."

With $1.34 now possibly resistance turned support, the next resistance level should be at $1.40.  This is likely to be a stronger resistance level as it is also a round number.  Fundamentally, at $1.40, K-REIT would be trading at a mere 4.8% discount to NAV and its yield would be pretty low at 3.8%. I would probably do a partial divestment if price does test $1.40.

Related posts:
K-REIT: Moving into the next band?
FCOT, CCT and K-REIT.

Buying gold? Wait for a correction.

Jim Rogers predicts "more turmoil" in the currency markets, more problems in the stock market, weakness in bonds and, ultimately, inflation.

 
Posted Oct 06, 2010 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task

"Gold could correct for a few months [but] the bull market in gold is not over - far from it," he says. "I'm much more bullish on agriculture than I am even on gold. I own both."

In the meantime, he owns the Swiss franc, euro and yen but is not actively short any currencies, including the greenback.

In case of a correction, I see immediate support at US$1,250 an ounce, followed by US$1,200 an ounce.

Related post:
Gold can double from here over the next 5 years.

FSL Trust: Approaching target.

On 9 August, I said that "I also have some units which I bought in the recent crash. Why? I explained that the purchases were made based on TA and are for a trade. Looking at the charts, FSL Trust's price has not just found a floor, it has most probably bottomed.  So, would I sell at the bottom?  No." and that "From a FA perspective, it is true that FSL Trust has very high risks and its propects seem bleak in the longer term but would it go belly up in the next few months? Rather unlikely as the world economy is still on the mend and the fortunes of the shipping industry are looking up."

On 4 October, I said "46c is still the resistance to watch although it was briefly taken out today on higher volume. Eventual target remains defined by the descending 200dMA, currently at 50.5c."

Today, a white candle was formed as price closed at 47.5c.  46c could possibly be resistance turned support and we are a step closer to the eventual target. MACD has been rising in positive territory. MFI has formed higher lows and higher highs. Things are looking benign. However, volume is lacking suggesting that a lack of sellers rather than an abundance of buyers is the reason behind the price appreciation. This puts into question the sustainability of the recent buoyant price action.

Related posts:
FSL Trust: Where to from here?
FSL Trust: Challenging resistance.

Gold and silver: New highs.

"Gold, up 2pc this year, is heading for its 10th consecutive annual gain, the longest winning streak since at least 1920. On Tuesday, bullion for immediate delivery added as much as $13, trading at $1,326.97 an ounce in early London trading....

"Also on Tuesday, silver advanced to a 30-year high, increasing 1.3pc to $22.2319 an ounce – the highest level since September 1980. "

Read complete article here.

Related post:
Gold can double from here over the next 5 years.
Buy more silver on weakness.

ASTI: Testing support at 11c.

ASTI's share price tried unsuccessfully in earlier sessions to stay above the 12c resistance. Today, share price closed at 11c amid weakening technicals.  The MACD just completed a bearish crossover in positive territory.  RSI is testing support at 50% which suggests weakened buying momentum.

11c is where we find the rising 50dMA.  A stronger support would be at 10.5c which is where we find the rising 100dMA which coincides with the uptrend support line. I believe that the fortunes of the semi-con industry would continue to improve and would, therefore, accumulate if ASTI's share price should retest support at 10.5c.

Related posts:
ASTI: A doubling of share price in time.
ASTI: Breakout, almost.

Hock Lian Seng:Target hit.

On 27 Sep, I mentioned that "A support seems to have formed at 30c for this construction stock.  Further upside would give a target of 32c." Today, Hock Lian Seng's share price touched a high of 32.5c before closing at 31.5c as volume exploded.

The MACD completed a bullish crossover in positive territory as the MFI spiked into overbought territory while the OBV turned up sharply. The RSI, however, is somewhat lukewarm and has yet to break out from a series of lower highs.  This coupled with a white candle formed today with a long upper wick puts into question the sustainability of today's upmove in price. Interpretation: Strong demand and accumulation but buying momentum is muted by strong selling pressure at resistance (32c).

I sold some of my shares at the 32c target today. Although I still see strong support at 30c where we find the rising 20dMA, 30.5c could very well be resistance turned support. I would buy again if it gets to those levels. Immediate resistance remains at 32c and if that breaks convincingly, the next target is at 34c.

Related post:
Hock Lian Seng: 32c target.

Raffles Education: A trading opportunity.

I have not done any trading for a long time.  Today, I took a look at Raffles Education's chart and it looks to me like a positive divergence is forming between the downtrend in price and the MACD.  As price formed lower highs, the MACD has been forming higher lows.  Last week, a higher low in price was formed.  This is a positive sign.

Look at the MFI and we see higher highs which suggest increasing demand. Look at the OBV and we see accumulation strengthening.  Look at the RSI and we see higher highs which suggest positive buying momentum.  These signs point towards a possible reversal of the downtrend.

Also, as price declined in the recent sessions, volume similarly declined which suggests that a classic low volume pullback is taking place. There is an absence of strong selling pressure.

Having said all these, immediate resistance at 29.5c has to be taken out convincingly.  If this is achieved, I see an eventual target of 34c (161.8% Fibo and also defined by the descending 200dMA) with some resistance at 32c.  Good for a trade? Perhaps.

Related post:
Raffles Education: Downtrend in force.

FSL Trust: Challenging resistance.

On 27 Sep, I mentioned that "Trading above the gap which was closed at 43.5c now brings the next resistance at 46c to play.  I see an eventual target as defined by the descending 200dMA, currently at 51c."

FSL Trust has been experiencing buoyant price action since then and 43.5c has been established as immediate support.  This is likely to be underpinned by the rising 20dMA. 46c is still the resistance to watch although it was briefly taken out today on higher volume. Eventual target remains defined by the descending 200dMA, currently at 50.5c.

Related post:
FSL Trust: Rising from the depths.

Genting SP: 38.2% Fibo.

On 1 Oct, I mentioned that "I feel that a resumption of a downward movement towards the 50dMA is likely and that further upside could be capped by the 38.2% Fibo line at $2.05."

Today, an effort to further advance the rebound in the last session sputtered as price hit a high of $2.10 only to retreat to close to $2.04, 1c lower than the resistance identified at $2.05. A white candle with a long upper wick was formed, suggesting the presence of strong selling pressure as price tried to move higher.

Immediate support is now at $2.00, underpinned by the rising 20dMA, on top of being a many times tested support and resistance level.  Immediate resistance remains at $2.05.


Related post:
Genting SP: A strong rebound.

Increasing demand for S-REITs.

Morgan Stanley says that S-REITs will benefit from low borrowing costs and a stronger S$. The high dividend yields make S-REITs attractive with limited downside.

Singapore’s high-yield REITs attractive. Yield spreads for REITs will remain high while interest rates are low, meaning cheaper funding costs for the trusts, Morgan Stanley says
Monday, 04 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Although Morgan Stanley specifically mentioned Mapletree Logistics Trust and Ascott Residence Trust as being upgraded to Overweight, I believe that smaller S-REITs with even higher yields will get some attention soon as well. It is a matter of time and I will be patient.

Today, Saizen REIT saw its 15.5c sell queue bought up to the tune of 6,068 lots. There were three trades which were buy ups of 1,000 lots each. Could this REIT be attracting the interest of some deep pocketed investors?

Incidentally, I have accepted and paid for the rights of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT this evening. I also applied for some excess rights.  Hope I get some. To fellow unitholders, please remember that the deadline is 7 Oct (Thu), 9.30pm for applications by ATM.

Related posts:
Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust: Rights issue.
Saizen REIT: Better than expected DPU.

Do you want to be richer?

The original title of this blog post was "Do you want to be rich?".  Then, I decided to change the last word as it would be more inclusive.  Almost everything is relative in this world, after all.  Few things are absolutes, such as death.  Even then, there could be debates on the different degrees of death. 

Oh well, modern society does complicate things.






This blog post was inspired by a recent late night chat in LP's infamous cbox. I was just sharing my ideas on how we could generate passive income from the stock market when a person mentioned that not everyone has $500k to begin with. 

Well, unless we are very lucky, I doubt anyone would have that kind of money from day one.  Then, a long discussion ensued in which I felt there wasn't any real engagement. 

Anyway, if someone feels that way, it could be possible that there are others who feel the same way.  Hence, the genesis of this post.

Let's go back in time. In an earlier blog post, I mentioned a personal aim for a minimum of $50k passive income from the stock market. I said that we just need $500k invested with a 10% yield.  I gave examples of REITs which I was vested in which I felt could help deliver this passive income target.  These are REITs which I blog about quite a lot and readers who are considering my strategy could be kept updated.






Question: How on Earth could an average worker amass $500k in capital through working and by being frugal? The operative word being "average". 

An example was given on how a Diploma holder making $2k a month would find it hard to achieve this. 

Well, if we were making $2k a month, we would have to make more money more quickly towards this end. 

However, if we did not do anything to change the status quo, we would continue making only $2k month. 

We cannot logically expect an improvement in our circumstances if we do not make an effort to change for the better. 

So, stop being "average".

For example, a certain full time private tutor I know managed to save $50k per annum! That's inspirational, if I do say so myself. He probably took on more students and worked harder. He should perhaps up his fees but that's just me. All of us could make incremental changes to our lives to be more productive.

What is the first step towards passive income generation? 

Find a job that pays us as much as we are worth or more than we are worth. Do not shortchange ourselves.  

If we are worth more than $2k a month, find people who are willing to pay us more.  If we are only worth $2k a month, find ways of increasing our value. Upgrade ourselves.

I would like to share another example here. I had a fellow soldier for a student when I was in the Army.  I gave him free English classes because he was not from a well to do family and the evenings in camp were pretty free anyway.  He took his 'O' Levels English paper twice before and he could not make the grade but he did not give up. 

I was then 24 years old and had just graduated from university but I was quite a bit older than he.

After a few months of lessons, I advised the student that perhaps there was another route that he could take. He should spend some time thinking of what he was really interested in and what he was good at.  Doing English was an uphill task for him.  

When I met him again a few years ago, he told me he was doing some IT stuff which involved laying cables and networking workstations. It was all Greek to me but he was doing very well with a pay of more than $6k a month! This is a success story which I still share with my students today.






Find your strengths and build on them.

Unless we are physically or mentally disadvantaged, if we would like to be richer, we could find ways of doing it.  

If we thought that making $2k a month was what we were supposed to make and that it was our fate, then, it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

If we wallow in self-pity, the only people who would show us sympathy would be people with the same mindset. It becomes a reinforcing vicious cycle! 

We build our own traps!







If we want to be richer, make it happen. How? The will must exist and it must be strong. Where there is a will, there is a way! This rings true.

When we make money, we must know how to save money. Recognise what are our needs and what are our wants. Fulfill the needs and delay gratification of the wants. Save as much as we can. 

Once we have an amount of money which could cover a year or two worth of routine expenses, we can start thinking of investing the rest.

Must all that $500k capital be from working hard and being frugal? 

Going back to an earlier blog post, I mentioned that when we invest in income generating assets, the passive income generated could be re-invested or it could be spent. If we re-invest, our targets (be it $500k or $100k) could be achieved sooner.  

This is the power of compounding.

To illustrate the power of compounding, let me use an institution in Singapore that we are all familiar with: the CPF.  When I first started working, I was thinking of how probable it was for me to meet the CPF minimum sum set by the Singapore government by the time I retire. 

Most of our contribution goes into the Ordinary Account (OA) while a much smaller sum goes into the Special Account (SA). 

At the face of it, 2.5% interest for the OA and 4.0% for the SA have only a 1.5% difference per annum but think of it a bit more and we realise that that the SA pays 60% more in interest compared to the OA!  Furthermore, if we compound 4% per annum, it becomes a very powerful force!

So, I voluntarily transferred my OA money into my SA for the first few years of my working life. Then, I let the government and time help me meet the minimum sum required through compounding 4% interest per annum.  Every 10 years, the SA money would grow 50% even if the monthly contributions should stop.





Do you want to be richer? 

Obviously, you do, otherwise, you would not have reached this part of the post. How soon do I think we could amass S$500k from the day we start working? 

To give a specific time period is difficult because it would depend on each person's circumstances but my point is that if we have the will to achieve it, and if we are physically and mentally whole, we will find ways to do it.


Related posts:
1. How much to have or how much to use?
2. 7 steps to creating passive income from stocks.
3. Building and preserving our wealth.
4. A minimum of $50k in annual passive income.
5. Money management: Needs and Wants.

Singapore Flyer: Halloween.

I took the Flyer once before with my family and really enjoyed it. I thought that the ticket was a bit pricey but it was a family outing and it is the tallest observation wheel in the world, well, until the one in Beijing is completed, that is.

I was just surfing for promotions and good deals when I stumbled upon this.  On 16,17, 23, 24, 30 and 31 October 2010, the Singapore Flyer will have special attractions which are free in nature: "Spooky Rainforest" and "Halloween Photo Stand-in".

Read about it here.

New highs in September.

I just did a blog stats update in August and was planning to do another update in December which would make my updates thrice yearly.  However, September's numbers surprised me so much on the upside that I just have to blog about it.  Numbers improved and made new highs in all three categories. In September, my blog registered 38,987 page loads, 22,712 unique visitors and 11,841 returning visitors.

On top of these numbers, Alexa reported that readers are spending a lot more time reading my blog. This is a happy development as it probably means that I have readers who are combing my blog for older posts on subjects which interest them.  A summary from Alexa says:

Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has a three-month global Alexa traffic rank of 702,778. Visitors to it view an average of 2.7 unique pages per day. The fraction of visits to the site referred by search engines is approximately 2%. 

Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has attained a traffic rank of 2,437 among users in Singapore, where almost all its audience is located. Visitors to the site spend approximately two minutes on each pageview and a total of nine minutes on the site during each visit.

To everyone who has made my blog as popular as it is today, a big "THANK YOU". :-)

Related posts:
Blog statistics: January to August 2010.
Alexa (Part 2).

Genting SP: A strong rebound.

STI increases 1.1% to 3,130.90 at closing. The measure advanced 1.2% this week, its sixth weekly gain. Three stocks rose for each that fell on the 30-member gauge.
Friday, 01 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Together with the STI's stellar performance, Genting SP staged a strong rebound.  The MACD histogram turned green, a buy signal but the rise in price was not accompanied by heavy volume.  This suggests that price rebounded on short covering and that it rose because of a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers.

This rebound was probably a good chance for bulls to reduce exposure. Personally, I feel that a resumption of a downward movement towards the 50dMA is likely and that further upside could be capped by the 38.2% Fibo line at $2.05. However, with an upgrade by OCBC, I wonder which way it would go.  It is a grand tug of war between research houses.

Genting up on short-covering, OCBC upgrade
Friday, 01 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore