A photo of the Helix Bridge I took a few evenings ago as I took a walk from MBLM to Millenia Walk. Yes, it was a long walk but it was a cool evening. I rather enjoyed the walk. :-)
See the Singapore Flyer in the background on the right? I am quite proud of this photo taken with my free Samsung mobile phone's built in 5 megapixel camera. ;-p
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MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Saturday, December 25, 2010Posted by AK71 at 10:18 AM 14 comments
Labels:
Christmas,
Helix Bridge,
marina bay sands,
MBLM,
Samsung,
Singapore
Tea with AK71: ASSI turns 1.
Friday, December 24, 2010
My blog is one year old! Who would have thought that starting this blog out of curiosity exactly a year ago could have resulted in what we see today? I wouldn't dare say that I will blog for years to come but I will definitely continue as long as I still feel happy doing it. :-)
A birthday cake for ASSI:
Actually, it's my own birthday cake as I turned 39 earlier this month and, guess what, it was with compliments from GNC. Free and yummy birthday cake. I like. ;-)
Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Buy me a cuppa tea?
Planning to travel? Check out ZUJI.
Posted by AK71 at 1:56 PM 17 comments
Japanese properties attracting international buyers.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Wealthy Chinese investors are also increasingly looking to Japan and a number of travel agencies have started offering Buy Japanese Property tours. Realtors say major foreign private equity groups, real estate trusts and realtors have earmarked an estimated $6.6 billion for investments in Asia, showing interest in Japan’s bricks and mortar assets and property debt.
‘While we are cautious around the country’s fundamentals, we do believe that the sheer size of the market allows for opportunities,’ said Peter Kim, managing director, ING Real Estate Investment Management, which has funds invested in Japan......
As foreign money pours in, the real surge in buying may just be starting, according to Mark Brown, a real estate analyst at researcher Japaninvest. The gap between what distressed property owners are asking and the amount buyers are willing to pay is closing fast, he said, adding that would lead to plenty of new deals.
Source: PropertyWire
Related post:
Japanese real estate: Has it bottomed?
Posted by AK71 at 9:11 PM 4 comments
Labels:
japan,
real estate
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: High yield with limited downside.
The very low trading volume these days probably affirms talk that most traders are taking the rest of the year off. There is also not much to say with regards to the counters on my watchlist. Most are behaving in ways which I think they would be behaving.
I decided to take a look at AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which has been holding steady for some time now. I like this REIT for its relatively high yield. However, price has been trapped in a tight range between 21.5c and 22c for many sessions now. What direction would it take in future?
The OBV is generally flat while the MACD has declined into negative territory. Although momentum has turned negative, volume is drying up. It is very likely that this counter could be trading sideways for some time to come. With the rising 200dMA at 21c, downside could be pretty limited. If the 200dMA were ever tested as support, I would probably buy more. With an expected DPU of 2c in 2011, buying at 21c would mean a yield of 9.52%. All in good time.
Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Revised DPU and fair value.
Posted by AK71 at 8:08 PM 0 comments
Labels:
AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial REIT,
TA
CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal?
Wednesday, December 22, 2010CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) is buying Queensbay Mall in Penang. I have been to this mall a few times on cruises to Penang and Phuket. I think it is the nicest mall in Penang: new, spacious, clean and cool. However, everytime I went there, I would wonder how the shops survived. It was also very quiet.
CMA's chart looks similar to that of Raffles Education: a prolonged downtrend with a white candlestick reversal signal as well as higher lows formed on the MFI as it rises from the oversold region.
The descending 20dMA is approximating $1.95 and should provide resistance. In case this were taken out, the descending 50dMA at $2.06 would be the next significant resistance level. In a downtrend, sell at resistance and that is what I would probably do.
Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Rebounding from $1.83
Posted by AK71 at 10:01 PM 0 comments
Labels:
capitamalls asia,
FA,
TA
Raffles Education: White hammer.
Bullish reversal candlesticks in this counter's chart have a notorious reputation of lacking follow throughs. So, the reliability of the white hammer formed this session is suspect. Nonetheless, downtrends are rivers of hope and rebounds are not unusual.
The MFI, a measurement of demand, has risen from the oversold region. It has formed a higher low for the second time in the last fortnight. Volume has expanded as price stabilised or rose. This is a sign of underlying demand. Could we see demand improving to push the price higher?
Immediate resistance at 25.5c. Further upside could be limited as resistance is expected at 26.5c, a many times tested support turned resistance, and 27c, where we find the descending 50dMA and the downtrend resistance line.
Posted by AK71 at 9:35 PM 0 comments
Labels:
raffles education,
TA
First REIT: Dragonfly doji at 71c.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
The bulllish harami identified on 14 Dec delivered most sportingly as I said then, "It is my personal belief that the 200dMA support at 67c has been recaptured. Further upward movement in price would find immediate resistance at 68.5c. This will be followed by 70c and 71c. In due course, if these resistance levels were cleared, the counter could cover the gap at 73.5c. There are some who are still waiting to see how low the price could fall before buying in. Their hands could be forced in the next two days if price continues to be resilient and this would contribute to a further strengthening in price."
First REIT's trading volume has reduced markedly as price rose higher in recent sessions. Today, price closed at 71c, forming a dragonfly doji, suggesting a lack of selling pressure as price rose on relatively low volume.
The OBV formed a sharp V since the formation of the bullish harami candlestick pattern. It has continued rising but more gently so. Accumulation continues. The MACD is poised to form a bullish crossover with the signal line, although in negative territory. Could this upmove in price be just a rebound?
I am of the opinion that it is more a recovery from a deeply oversold condition. Valuation is now moving towards fairer levels. In the days ahead, we could see a gradual rise in price and it could cover the gap at 73.5c. A retest of 75c, the adjusted historical high would be next in line.
Not so long ago, during the days of mad selling down which saw the rights touched a low of 16c and the mother shares touching a low of 66c, what was presented to us was a window period of a few days to load up on the cheap.
Only with strong confidence that comes from knowing the sound fundamentals of the REIT would we dare to buy more and I said as much when asked what would I do then. Friends sent SMS, readers left comments and sent emails. To all, I said we should recognise the window of opportunity, ignore the noise and buy more which I did.
"Am I not worried whether the price would decline further? No. Why should I worry? I cannot do anything to influence the price movement of the REIT. If the market is willing to sell a good thing to me at a lower price, I would buy. It's simple. So, would I buy again if the price declines further. Yes, I would." 13 Dec 10.
I could be sticking my neck out by saying this but congratulations to all who conquered their fears and held their positions. In my opinion, the fair value for First REIT remains at 80c /unit.
Related posts:
First REIT: Quiet confidence.
First REIT: XR and fair value.
Posted by AK71 at 9:05 PM 20 comments
Labels:
FA,
First REIT,
TA
FSL Trust: Closing the gap soon?
On 17 Dec, I mentioned that "The MACD is about to cross into positive territory. OBV suggests continuing accumulation. MFI and RSI are both rising, suggesting strengthening demand and buying momentum."
The resistance provided by the 50dMA at 45c was taken out today as price closed at 45.5c. With the MACD rising into positive territory, we could indeed see the gap closed at 46c next. Eventual target remains at 47c.
Related post:
FSL Trust: Testing 45c resistance.
Posted by AK71 at 8:19 PM 0 comments
Healthway Medical: Closed the gap at 15.5c.
Monday, December 20, 2010
On 13 Dec, I divested my trading position in Healthway Medical at 17c, saying that "I expected 17c to be a strong resistance as it is where we find the merged 100d and 200d MAs as well as the downtrend resistance line. So, a trading position entered on 22 Nov last month at 15.5c was divested at 17c today." and on 14 Dec, I mentioned that "Price could first retreat to 16c, a many times tested resistance and now possible support, before closing the gap at 15.5c."
Healthway Medical closed the gap today at 15.5c. Am I expecting more downside? Share price is pulling back from almost overbought conditions and I do not expect any huge downward movement. Notice that the decline in share price has been on the back of reducing volume. This is good news for the bulls. Also notice that the uptrend in the MFI and RSI are still intact. However, the charts suggest the possibility of both indices to retest their supports. This could mean a reduction in price or volume or both in the near future. A successful retest of supports could lead to another upward movement in price.
Immediate support at 15.5c. This is followed by 15c and 14.5c.
Related post:
Healthway Medical: Still at resistance.
Posted by AK71 at 11:55 PM 4 comments
Labels:
Healthway Medical,
TA
SPH: Breaking the 100dMA.
A reader recently asked me at what price should he buy more shares of SPH? Well, I always like to buy on weakness. Today, SPH closed at $3.90. This was after breaking the support provided by the 100dMA at $3.95 last Friday.
Although the MACD is in decline, the MFI suggests that there is some support as the counter gets sold down. Of course, this could change quickly. In such an instance, using Fibo lines, we see the next support at $3.86. However, the 138.2% Fibo line at $3.83 should be a stronger support being one of the three golden ratios. This is followed by $3.81 and $3.79. I could add to my position then.
Posted by AK71 at 11:18 PM 0 comments
CapitaMalls Asia: Rebounding from $1.83.
Last Friday, I mentioned that "A short term positive divergence is what I see with higher lows on the MFI and the RSI as price declined. As price has been pushing the borders of the lower Bollinger and is some distance from the 20dMA, we could expect a brief respite from further downward pressure."
Today, a white candlestick was formed with price rebounding to close at $1.87. The relatively low volume suggests that the mood is still cautious and the rebound could simply be a technical one as the counter was oversold.
There could, however, be more room for price to rise as the MFI and RSI both formed higher lows, enhancing the picture of a positive divergence with price movement. A buy signal has also appeared on the MACD histogram while OBV turned up signalling an end to distribution which has been taking place since 13 Dec.
This counter is still in a downtrend and selling at resistance is the prudent thing in a downtrend. I see immediate resistance at $1.92. This is followed by $1.95 and $1.97.
Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.84.
Posted by AK71 at 11:08 PM 0 comments
Labels:
capitamalls asia,
TA
Golden Agriculture: Pulling back.
In various recent blog posts, I mentioned that the negative divergence between indicators and the price movement of Golden Agriculture is too glaring to be ignored. The charts show clearly rising price against a backdrop of declining volume, MACD, MFI and RSI.
Of course, the MACD is declining in positive territory and the weakness in price could be a chance to accumulate at support. I see support provided by the rising 50dMA which approximates 72c. This is followed by 70c.
Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Waiting for a pullback.
Posted by AK71 at 10:28 PM 0 comments
Labels:
Golden Agriculture,
TA
Tea with AK71: Love the plants.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
This was taken at a Chinese dessert place at Vivo City. I guess the shop owner must be either a humorous guy or he got quite tired of having to replace the plants! Be kind to plants!
Posted by AK71 at 6:48 PM 4 comments
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