CapitaMalls Asia: Another reversal signal.

Many would remember how the charts spotted reversal signals on Monday and how they failed to be confirmed on Tuesday. When reversal signals fail in a downtrend, the bear is strong indeed. With CapitaMalls Asia, it was no exception as a potential Morning Doji Star setup failed to materialise.

I have not really been looking at the charts since starting my vacation which explains the lack of any charts in my recent blog posts. This morning, I looked at CapitaMalls Asia's chart and we have a reversal signal again. It is a Bullish Harami Cross. Remembering that TA simply gives us hints of what could be and not what would be, let us look at the two possible scenarios.

On Wednesday, I asked "Would I sell my loss making investment in the company? Nope. Why? Because I think the selling could be overdone. Look at the weekly chart and you would see a positive divergence between price and the MFI and RSI."  So, if the reversal signal on the daily chart is confirmed next week, it could be a confirmation of the positive divergence on the weekly chart. This is the more exciting of the two scenarios for long holders, of course.

The $1.83 support would have to be recaptured and if this were to happen, there would be resistance at $1.88 next.  Price could go as high as $2.00 which is where we find the 200dMA but the declining 20wMA on the weekly chart will approximate $1.95 next week. So? We could see price touching $2.00 but pulling back to the 20wMA or $1.95 could be strong enough to prevent price from touching $2.00 at all. So, why am I saying all this? Knowing where the different resistance levels are allows me to decide on where to place my sell orders if the reversal does take place.

If the reversal signal failed once again, price could descend to test $1.70 which is a support level based on sets of Fibo lines I drew some time back on 18 Feb. This is the less exciting scenario for long holders. What would I do then? Wait to see that $1.70 holds up before deciding whether to increase exposure.

Time for breakfast and some sun. Have a great Saturday!

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Morning Doji Star.
CapitaMalls Asia: Suppot at $1.88 gave way.

STI up 1.8%: Out of the woods?

The STI closed 1.8% higher and recaptured the 3,000 points support. Whether 3,000 points is now support once more, actually, needs confirmation. It is too early to say that we are out of the woods.

As most of my investments in the stock market are not index linked counters, I am not too bothered by the STI apart from the possible spillover effects it could create.

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust: My buy queue at 20c was not filled. I am continuing the buy queue at 20c for next Monday. Although price closed at 20c today, most of the 8,840 lots transacted today were Buy Ups at 20.5c, 6,913 lots to be exact. 20c is a very strong support both technically and fundamentally.

2. Cache Logistics Trust: I am still waiting to buy this at 92.5c. It did touch 92.5c recently but my Buy order was not filled. So, am I going to buy at a higher price? Nope. I will continue to wait at 92.5c since technical weakness is still apparent.

3. CapitaMalls Asia: Closed 1c higher. Technically very weak. See if it captures support at $1.83. The counter closed at $1.77.

4. First REIT: For anyone who is seeking exposure or increasing the weight of his long exposure to this REIT, 72c support has held up and could be a fairly safe entry. However, if 72c breaks, the next support is at 69c. If a possible 3c paper loss is acceptable, why not?

5. Genting SP: Similar to CapitaMalls Asia, this counter must capture its previous support in order to set investors' minds at ease. That would be at $2.00. The counter closed at $1.95.


6. Golden Agriculture: Regained support at 63.5c. This needs confirmation in the next session but it is a shot in the arm for investors. Closing below support recently could just be a whipsaw.

7. Healthway Medical: Closed at 14c which was support. This could now be resistance. Technically and fundamentally weak, I would only go long on this counter for quick trades for now which is what I have done before.



8. Saizen REIT: Buy ups at 16c happening. 15.5c remains a very strong support, technically, and is a fairly safe entry price for any interested investor.

9. ASTI: I increased my long position and I shared this on Twitter yesterday. EPS: 2.6c. NAV: 18c/share. Dividend: 0.7c/share. I bought more at 10c/share. It was my only "update" yesterday in my blog. If you are not following me on Twitter yet, you might want to do so for my short "blogs".

OK, hungry for dinner now after an afternoon nap, recovering from hours on the beach. Have a wonderful weekend! :)

STI climbs 1.8% to 3,025.16 at closing
Friday, 25 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

STI soaked in red and AK71's thoughts.

I slept a full 8 hours last night! I also took a 2 hours nap in the afternoon today! Now, I am feeling drowsy from a very good dinner, a good facial treatment and a good massage. Yawn...

OK, a quick one:

1. CapitaMalls Asia: $1.83 support is gone. I remember saying that if this support goes, the next major support is probably at $1.70. $1.83 could be support turned resistance. Would I sell my loss making investment in the company? Nope. Why? Because I think the selling could be overdone. Look at the weekly chart and you would see a positive divergence between price and the MFI and RSI.

2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: My buy order at 20.5c was filled this morning. I am now in the queue at 20c to buy more if the weakness continues. At 20c, the yield would be 10% per annum.

3. Cache Logistics Trust: Putting in a buy order at 92.5c. Nice chance of getting it filled. This is the lowest geared industrial property trust in Singapore right now, if I remember correctly.

4. First REIT: In an earlier blog post, I said there is probably a better time to increase exposure to this REIT and that price could retreat to 72c. It has done just that today. I am tempted to add to my long position at this price for a 9% yield per annum. However, I would not throw in the kitchen sink. Watch 72c which is supported by the 100dMA. If it goes, the 200dMA is at 69c and that is some way to fall.

5. Saizen REIT: 15.5c is where we find the rising 100wMA.  This is a very long term MA and likely to be a very strong support. For anyone waiting to enter or increase exposure to this REIT, this would be a fairly safe entry price.

6. Golden Agriculture: Breaking support provided by the 200dMA at 63.5c is very bearish. It needs confirmation to see if the 200dMA is now support turned resistance. The momentum oscillators are negative and we could see the 100wMA tested as support if this keeps up. Currently, it is at 54c.

I am having a hard time keeping my eyes from closing. So, that's all for tonight. Good night and good luck. :)

AK71 is on vacation!

In my last blog post, I mentioned that I had to catch a very early flight this morning and had to sleep early. Well, sleeping early is something very difficult for me and I didn't sleep very well last night.  If you are wondering what am I doing catching an early flight today, I am on vacation! Yes, finally!

I just woke up from a short nap and got connected to the internet a while ago. I have checked the stock market and saw, wow, a sea of red! It seems that the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa is shaking the global stock markets. I see prices of gold and silver climbing higher even as equities retreated.

This could be one of those opportunities to load up on counters with sound fundamentals. It could be a chance to make some value buys. This is the investor in me talking. However, the trader in me says that things could go lower and that we should wait to see supports holding up before increasing our long exposure. This is only sensible, is it not?

Which are the counters I am eyeing? Quite a few and here are three I am thinking of loading:

1. CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal signal failed to be confirmed, similar to most other counters' reversal signals. Keep an eye on the $1.83 support. See my earlier blog posts for more information.

2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 20.5c is holding up nicely as of now. I would probably put in a buy order tomorrow at 20.5c. Would definitely buy more at 20c, if ever tested. See my earlier blog posts for more information.

3. Cache Logistics Trust: I have been waiting for another chance to start a long position in this REIT. Touching 93.5c today, I might just be given a chance to buy a bid or two lower. See my earlier blog posts for more information.

Although I have internet connection in the hotel, I just realised that they use a different type of electrical plug from Singapore. I will have to see if I can get an adapter from a hardware store or supermarket. If I cannot find an adapter, you might not see me blogging for a while as my notebook's battery is running low on power.

Also, as I am on vacation, I might be somewhat lazy. It is only natural, isn't it? ;)

So, don't be surprised to see one liners or nothing at all. Hahaha... A vacation is a most uplifting must do for working adults. Despite a sea of red in the stock market, I am actually feeling quite happy. It could also be that most of my investment portfolio is for income. So, I am not so affected by the market weakness since capital appreciation is a secondary objective for me.

Till the next blog post, good luck to one and all. :)

CapitaMalls Asia: Morning doji star?

You might notice that many charts are spotting reversal signals today which are in need of confirmation. After so many days of down action, many counters seem ready for a rebound. Of course, signals will always need confirmation.

Regular readers would remember that I said I would wait to see if the $1.83 support for this counter would be retested. If the support held up upon retest, I might increase my exposure to the counter. Today, I increased the weight of my long position at $1.86. Why?

1. A lack of selling pressure as exemplified by the low volume.

2. The formation of a doji which is a potential reversal signal.

3. An uptick in the MFI and RSI which suggests some underlying support.

Taking point number 2 further, we could be seeing the first two candles in a three candles reversal pattern which is known as the Morning Doji Star. If price opens higher tomorrow and forms a white candle that ends the day at $1.90 or higher, the set up would be perfect. This set up usually signals a reversal from a downtrend.

Like I said before, TA is useful in giving us glimpses of what might be and not what would be. So, always be prepared for two scenarios.

If price goes up, what do we do? If we connect the highs of 9 Feb and 17 Feb, we get a trendline resistance. On the weekly chart, the resistance shows up as $1.92. On the daily chart, the resistance could be at $1.93 to $1.94. So, in a downtrend, sell at resistance. What about retaining some shares to see if there is a chance of price retesting the 100dMA as resistance as it did on 9 Feb? Why not? This would approximate $2.00 this week and coincides with the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart.

What if price did not go up and went down instead? In such an instance, I would wait to see if $1.83 would be retested as support and if it held up upon retest, I would buy more.

That's all, folks. I have a very early flight to catch tomorrow and I am going to try to sleep earlier. So, this is the only blog post for tonight. Good luck and good fortune.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.88 gave way.

At what age to start investing in the stock market?

A blog post at Bully the Bear has generated much interest and discussion: The youth and the stock market.

Although I have some ideas of my own, I was feeling lazy and didn't want to comment but a cboxer, Evolution of the "lobster taller than small girl , ak's t shirt older than evo" fame, put me in the hot seat and asked "Ak , whats ur view on LP's new post".

I said that I have introduced my 9 year old niece to investing in the stock market. Yes, she is in primary 3 this year. She has some savings in the bank which is paid a paltry sum of interest. 0.2% per annum for young savers? Maybe it is more, I am not very sure but still paltry.

Anyway, she has some shares in SPH for more than a year now bought using my account and she has collected one year's worth of dividends. It is quite a lot of money for a 9 year old and she's happy with the dividends, needless to say.

Getting dividends from investing in SPH has demonstrated to my niece the power of delayed gratification. 

By not using her savings on things she wants to buy and by investing for income, she is able to use the passive income to buy the things she wants later on without touching her savings at all. 

I heard from my sister that my niece is very frugal these days and I heard from my mom that my niece would sometimes ask her what's the latest share price of SPH.

Sound ideas in personal finance and investment, I believe, should be taught to children as soon as they are able to understand them. Teaching them the importance of thrift and savings is but the first step. How to make their savings work harder? 

Now, that's a big second step.

I remember how I would save all my pocket money when I was a boy in order to buy the toys I wanted. 

If only I had someone to tell me I should save all my money and how to make my money work harder for me then.

Related posts:
1. Teaching young children financial literacy.
2. Little book that beats the market.

Tea with AK71: Mahjong RubiksCube.

I had lunch with an old friend whom I have known for more than 20 years. As we grow older, we grow more sentimental, perhaps. After lunch, I decided to walk into a shop selling comics and knick knacks. It is a shop I enjoyed going to frequently in my younger days. Just when I thought there's nothing interesting enough for me to buy, this caught my eyes!

The RubiksCube was first introduced when I was in primary school, I think. See how it has evolved? Amazing! My friend opened his, I scrambled it up and he tried to put it back together again. It is much more difficult compared to the old cube with solid colors.

We have to make sure that the 6 sides each has the correct family of symbols AND the symbols have to be in sequence if numbers are involved (as in the TONG ZI, WAN ZI and TIAO ZI) AND the right side up (this applies to all sides, the other three sides being HONG ZHONG, BAI BAN and FA CAI)! Wah!

A small detail on the packaging caught my eyes too. Why does one say for ages 3 to adult and another, ages 8 to adult? Hmmm... Maybe, I am not smart enough to comprehend this. Made in China, where else? ;p