Capitaland: Going even higher?

Capitaland's share price formed a long white candle as price closed at $3.50 in the last session. Guess what. The technicals look similar to those of CapitaMalls Asia. Since I suspect that CapitaMalls Asia's share price could go higher, the same suspicion would apply to Capitaland's share price.

+DI is rising and ADX has flattened. MACD is rising strongly in positive territory. OBV suggests strong accumulation is going on. MFI is bordering overbought. RSI is high in overbought territory. Volume has lowered since 29 March when price tested the trendline support but it is higher than the low of 17 March. Uptrend support is intact but a pull back in the near term is possible.

With immediate resistance at $3.54 (100dMA) and a possible whipsaw to $3.56 (gap resistance and 50% Fibo fan line), the near term upside could be limited from the current level. Support is at $3.41 in the next couple of sessions. This is a natural candlestick support and it coincides with the trendline support. A retest of support could see me initiating a long position in this counter.

Tea with AK71: Cornettos and Magnums.

I love ice cream. I have always enjoyed Cornettos and Magnums but I enjoyed them even more when I was in Thailand. Look at the photos and you would know why:

10 Thai Baht is about 40c in Singapore currency. So? We could have a really nice Cornetto for less than 90c!

And we could have a yummy Magnum (regular size type) for $1.60!

Burp!

NOL: Out of the doldrums?

NOL formed a higher low on 28 March although it has yet to form a higher high. The impetus for this blog post is NOL's closing above the 20dMA for the first time since 10 March. Together with some other observations, it seems that NOL could be coming out of the doldrums.

Some might remark that NOL promptly sank on 11 March and what makes it different this time? Could not the price sink next Monday? Indeed, it could. This is especially so when we realise that price closed exactly at resistance provided by the 38.2% Fibo fan line.

However, I feel that things are looking up because, on the daily chart:

1. The MACD is higher now than it was on 10 March although it is still rising in negative territory.

2. There has been a prolonged period of low volatility which has resulted in tightening Bollinger bands.

3. As price moved higher lately, volume has not reduced dramatically like it did leading to 10 March.

On the weekly chart:

4. A white candle has formed on higher volume as a detachment from the lower Bollinger band takes place.

5. OBV shows a return of accumulation.

6. Stochastics suggests that the counter is oversold as it found itself trapped in sideways trading.

If there should be a pull back to $1.96 in the next session or two, I might initiate a long position. Near term upside targets are at $2.07 and $2.14 if the upward movement should continue.

CapitaMalls Asia: Strong uptrend emerging.

Despite strong buy calls from research houses, this counter's share price suffered from a prolonged period of weakness. However, recently, a strong uptrend seemed to be emerging for this counter. Refer to the orange color trendline support. Is this a reversal which would propel its share price much higher?

Volume in today's session was much lower than the previous day's but price still managed to close higher at $1.88 resistance, touching a high of $1.89 in the day. Rising on low volume is not a good sign usually but if we look at the bigger picture, the overall trend should be given more prominence. Indeed, the ADX seems to be turning up as the +DIs are rising. This is something we have not seen in a while. It suggests that a nascent uptrend could be gaining strength.

The MACD is rising higher in positive territory. The other momentum oscillators continue to rise as well. There is demand, there is accumulation and there is positive price momentum. The strength is impressive and I would be accumulating on weakness. I still have near term targets of $1.95 and $2.00 for this counter where price would meet with resistance. At what price would I accumulate? Immediate support is at $1.83.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.88 resistance.

Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs.

In the last one month, I bought more units in industrial properties S-REITs.

1. I became an investor in Cambridge Industrial Trust again. Read blog post here.

2. I bought more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. See latest blog post here.

3. I became an investor in Cache Logistics Trust. Read blog post here.

4. I became an investor in Sabana REIT too. Read blog post here.

I believe that all these REITs are fundamentally strong and if we are investing for income, these could be very rewarding in the next two years. Distribution yields range from 8.15% for Cache Logistics Trust to 9.76% for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at current prices. Attractive? Quite.

DTZ Research said that rents for industrial space in Singapore are rising. Although average rent grew 3% quarter on quarter, current average rent is still 17.1% below the peak of 2008.


"DTZ added that industrial rents are anticipated to continue to increase. That is because the annual average potential supply of 7.5 million square feet between 2011 and 2013 is significantly lower than the historical 10-year average demand of 9.3 million square feet." CNA, 07 April 2011.


If we are trying to beat inflation and protect our wealth from shrinking, industrial properties S-REITs are definitely worth considering. I have felt this way for more than a year and I continue to believe in their fundamentals.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.88 resistance.

With a huge buy up at closing last evening, I took a chance that $1.83 resistance might break today. I raised my sell order to $1.87 instead, just one bid shy of resistance at $1.88 which I identified on 5 April. The sell order was filled today as price touched a high of $1.88 before closing the day at $1.86. Volume was very high today, almost quadrupling from the session before. So, will the price move higher tomorrow? It could.

There is reason to be optimistic if we believe that volume is the fuel that drives rallies and clearing the $1.83 resistance on such high volume and testing resistance at $1.88 on the same day is quite impressive. The MACD has been rising in positive territory, signalling the return of positive momentum. The MFI is yet to be overbought while the RSI is bordering on overbought. The OBV suggests strong accumulation. Immediate target in case of a breakout: $1.95 followed by $2.00.

Although a long upper shadow on today's white candle suggests some selling pressure closer to and at $1.88, selling has been well absorbed. In case of a sell down, $1.83 is the immediate support while $1.80 could provide a stronger support as that is where we find the 50dMA as well as the trendline support. Breaking $1.80 support would mean that the current uptrend has been compromised.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.83 resistance.

Tea with AK71: A confused wine for Hokkiens?

I was at the supermarket and chanced upon this:

A wine for Hokkien people? If so, it could be quite confused. ;-p

On a serious note, this is an American wine which I have not tried before. Has anyone tried this brand? Is it any good?

Saizen REIT: Sanity prevails with more good news.

Since starting my investment in Saizen REIT in the later half of 2009 at a price of 13c/unit, the REIT gained in market value and I also received income distributions from the REIT twice. However, the totally unforeseen triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami and the following nuclear power plant crisis wrecked a steadily improving picture.

As I was consistently buying more units in the REIT, to say that I was not in the least mentally or emotionally affected would be untrue. Some were asking me to dump my investment in the REIT, painting horrific images. Some left comments in my blog with words to the same effect and more. Also, news that countries around the world were asking their citizens to leave Japan (due to perceived radiation risks) didn't help.

However, throughout the crisis, I tried to stay calm and rational and, by my own standards, I did it fairly well. I analysed the situation early on and came up with a worst case scenario which suggested that at 13c/unit, the REIT was oversold by panic stricken investors. I stood by my analysis and the fact that insiders were buying reinforced my belief that the unit price was at a floor, if not the bottom.

I could stay calm and rational partly because I was not using any borrowed money or money which I would need in a hurry elsewhere. That we should never invest using borrowed funds or funds needed in the near future is an important principle for all investors.

Some friends would say that I have an added advantage of sitting on a thick cushion of investment gains and dividends accumulated since late 2009. This is, perhaps, true, since at the back of my mind, I knew that I would not be losing any of my capital in the crisis even if the unit price were to weaken further.

The REIT's fundamental and technical pictures have altered somewhat due to the disasters. These changes, I mentioned in an earlier blog post. Read it here. As an investor, we must not be stubborn and I recognise the new reality for what it is and decided to reduce exposure to the REIT when the time is right. When would this be? I have mentioned in a few blog posts that 15c would be the resistance to watch as the gap closes.

Divesting my investment in Saizen REIT partially when it tested and broke support turned resistance at 15c today was something quite mechanical for me. It was the thing to do and I did it. I am not one to be married to my investments.

What does this say about me? I never like selling at supports or what I perceive to be supports. Even in a downtrend, prices would go down a river of hope and selling in rebounds and, hopefully, at resistance is the thing to do.

Does the partial divestment of my investment in Saizen REIT mean that I am turning my back on the REIT? No. I have not closed my position in the REIT, merely lightened it. I remain vested and might even add to my position if the unit price should weaken once more.

Although the partial divestment has erased some of my investment gains, my overall portfolio remains in the black and my capital is intact. Rebuilding my investment gains means that the game is once again afoot.

Oh, if you are wondering what the good news for Saizen REIT is, they have announced a plan which could possibly see YK Shintoku, the last portfolio with a CMBS, unencumbered by end of May 2011. Details? I am going to be lazy here. Please read the announcement here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Staying calm and rational.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Stronger numbers.

The REIT's properties have been revalued higher year on year by 4% as at 31 March 2010. This means NAV per unit improves by 1c. See announcement here.

The REIT's unaudited financial results for the financial year ended 31 March 2011 will be released on 19 April 2011. See announcement here.

I am expecting the following:
DPU: 0.215c
NAV per unit: 27c.
Gearing: 32%.

DPU of 0.215c is, of course, due to the advance distribution of 0.285c earlier last month to exclude placement shares from income distribution for the period prior to the placement exercise.

NAV per unit, I have left unchanged despite the 4% higher property valuation because the REIT did dispose of Asahi Ohmiya Warehouse in Tokyo last month.

Gearing level is lower at 32% because funds from the same said divestment will be used to repay debt.

If my estimates are accurate enough, the REIT is currently trading at a 24% discount to NAV and a distribution yield of 9.76% (annualised DPU of 2c). A 32% gearing level is pretty safe considering the fact that property prices seem to be rising. There is also the fact that debts were refinanced last year at a much lower interest rate of 2.16% and the loans are not due for another two years at least.

I continue to like this REIT's fundamentals and would accumulate on any weakness.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Insights.
AIMS AMP Capital Indsutrial REIT: Lower gearing.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.83 resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia tested support turned resistance at $1.83 for the first time today. The fact that its share price pulled back and closed at $1.81 shows the existence of strong selling pressure closer to and at $1.83. The fact that this happened on much higher volume shows some weakness in the upward movement today. My sell order at $1.83 was not done.

The MFI, a measure of demand, has flattened despite the higher price and volume while the RSI has flattened in overbought territory. OBV, however, is rising which suggests ongoing accumulation. What are the possible scenarios now?

Given the fact that the MFI and RSI are near overbought and overbought, respectively, upside could be limited from here. $1.83 remains the immediate resistance while further upside could be capped at $1.88 (78.6% Fibo fan line and 100dMA) in the event that $1.83 is overcome.

Downside? Immediate support is at $1.80 although this could be a weak support. Stronger support could be found at $1.78, a many times tested resistance which coincides with trendline support as well. If this were to go, the uptrend would have been compromised and the next support would be at $1.72.

I have divested some at $1.78 and have put in a sell order at $1.83 for tomorrow. If price were to weaken to $1.72, I could buy in again. TA is never about certainty. It is about probability and we should plan accordingly. Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Partial divestment at $1.78.

Sabana REIT: Positive divergence.

In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that we should "Keep an eye on the MACD and see if a higher low forms as price forms a lower low. We are on the lookout for a potential positive divergence." A higher low has formed in the MACD and we have a positive divergence.

The formation of a positive divergence does not mean that the unit price is going to fly higher right away. A significant resistance presented by the declining 20dMA at 94c would have to be cleared first. Drawing a Fibo fan, it is also interesting to note that price is currently at the 23.6% Fibo fan line. This is not one of the three golden ratios and is a weaker resistance but it is a resistance nonetheless.

Overcoming immediate resistance at 94c would see price going higher. Long suffering unitholders of this underperforming REIT could have a respite soon if this should be the case. Good luck.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: Initiated long position.

Cache Logistics Trust: When would I buy more?

Cache Logistics Trust went as high as 96c/unit today before closing at 95c/unit, forming a gravestone doji in the process. Buying more at current levels means a smaller margin of safety, for sure. Volume was also lower as price tried to move higher. A picture of negative divergence is forming: rising price and falling volume.

Connecting the lows of 15 March and 24 March gives us a trendline support. Waiting for price to pull back to this support level before loading more would be sensible. This is currently at 94c which is also where we find the flattening 20dMA. In rather bearish circumstances, we could even see price breaking support, be it a whipsaw or not, to touch 93c. I could buy more then.

Having said all this, if a person is worried about missing the boat and would really like to initiate a long position, 95c could be a hedge. Why? Well, the momentum oscillators are all rising nicely: the MACD lookings like it could be crossing into positive territory soon. Using a Fibo fan, we also see that  95c is exactly where we find the golden ratio 61.8% and if this were to be established as a support, unit price could touch 97c in the near future.

Cache Logistics Trust has strong fundamentals and its technicals have strengthened. However, I am not one to chase after rising prices. If the opportunity presents itself, I would buy on weakness.

Related posts:
Cache Logistics Trust: Initiated long position at 91.5c.
Cache Logistics Trust: Positive divergences.

A movie: Space Battleship Yamato.

I watched "Space Battleship Yamato" today and thoroughly enjoyed it. It is somewhat different from the anime I watched as a young boy but that's to be expected since the anime spanned tens of episodes and the movie lasted only 131 minutes. Here is the official website of the movie: http://yamato-movie.net/en/movie.html

After watching the movie, I was so full of nostalgia that I decided to search for the anime I watched as a young boy. I found what I was looking for on YouTube and would like to share here with readers who might have the same feelings that I do. You know what, I like the anime more. ;-p

English version (known as "Star Blazers") here:


Japanese version (the original "Space Battleship Yamato") here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDLifAZiRrg&playnext=1&list=PL025131FA84B9B71F

Hint: The Japanese version is better. More authentic. Enjoy. :-)

Tea with AK71: Aloe Vera flowers?

I have told friends that my Aloe Vera plant at home has flowered a few times before and all were incredulous. Do Aloe Vera plants flower? I must admit that I was quite surprised myself when the plant first flowered. Well, it flowered again and I have taken a few photos over a period of 3 days to share here in my blog:

To see a field of Aloe Vera plants flowering, there is a very nice photo at this link here.