Golden Agriculture: Excellent results.

Golden Agriculture reported a sterling set of results as expected. My faith in the company was not misplaced and my expectations were met. Year on year, revenue increased 134% while net profit increased 161%. Quarter on quarter, net profit increased 47%.

I have mentioned before that I like how the company is expanding its downstream operations to be closer to consumers. I also like how it is expanding its business in China to diversify its customer base away from Indonesia. Its Chinese operations saw a year on year increase in net profit of 220% while its Indonesian operations saw a year on year increase in net profit of 159%.

However, it is clear that its Indonesian business is still the more profitable one as it has a gross profit margin of 43%, up from 33% a year ago, while its Chinese business has a gross profit margin of only 7%, up from 6% a year ago. Could gross profit margin of its business in China be improved further? I am hopeful that it would.

Golden Agriculture's share price formed a white spinning top in the last session on the back of increased volume. This could be in response to the company's excellent results which were announced mid-day. It is easy to see that immediate although weak resistance is at 67.5c. Stronger resistance is at 68.5c and if this were taken out, we could see 70.5c tested next. 70.5c is also where we find the declining 100dMA and the upper Bollinger band. So, I expect this to be a strong resistance.

We want to see 70.5c taken out convincingly and we want to see the price form a higher high. The last high was at 73.5c. If a lower high should be formed, we could see a head and shoulders pattern. That could be ominous.

See presentation slides here.

Golden Agri profit doubles to record on surge in palm oil. Net income rose to US$230.7 billion ($287 billion) for the quarter ended March 31 from US$88.5 million a year earlier.
Friday, 13 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Capitaland: More downside?

A low volume pullback would suggest that weak holders were selling. A high volume sell down is something else and investors should turn cautious. The volume which accompanied the formation of a long black candle today is the highest since 11 Feb 2011. The bearish tide is very strong.

My purchases made on 12 April at the prices of $3.38 and $3.36, above the 50dMA, are now in the red.  Will I buy more to average down my price? Capitaland's NAV/share is about $3.30. At today's closing price of $3.17, it is trading at a discount to NAV. Fundamentally, Capitaland is a strong company. However, it does not mean that its share price cannot go lower from here.

I have said this before and I will say it again as a reminder to myself: FA is about value and TA is about price.

The reverse head and shoulders did not give rise to a powerful upward surge in share price. The rising price was stopped by the declining 100dMA, trapped for many sessions before finally breaking the support provided by the 50dMA. Any trader worth his salt would have cut loss then. However, I am a bad trader and held on. As price declined, volume seemed to reduce which was heartening. Of course, today's explosive volume as price plunged destroyed that illusion.

All the MAs are declining and the 20dMA seems ready to form a dead cross with the 50dMA. -DI has been rising and, with it, the ADX. The downward movement in price seems to be gathering momentum. Further downside cannot be discounted and if price were to decline further, supports are at $3.11 and $3.08. I will wait for the dust to settle before deciding on my next move.

CapitaLand down on policy tightening worries
Wednesday, 11 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Sabana REIT: Bought more at 91.5c.

91.5c. Does this price sound familiar? It was the price I bought into Cache Logistics Trust some weeks back. See blog post here.

Today, I bought more units of Sabana REIT at 91.5c. The REIT's unit price touched a low of 91c after going XD before closing at 91.5c, forming a black hammer in the process. Buying at 91.5c XD is similar to buying at 94.5c CD (which, incidentally, was the highest price I paid although most of my purchases were made between 92.5c to 93.5c). Similar? That's because the REIT's maiden DPU was 3.04c.

I must be feeling quite bullish about the REIT if I bought more at 91.5c today. Well, feelings of bullishness aside, I feel that this REIT is a rather safe passive income generator at this level. NAV/unit of 98c means that the REIT is now trading at a 6.6% discount to NAV. Gearing level is conservative at 24.9%. Interest cover ratio is 7.9x. Annualised DPU of about 8.81c would mean a distribution yield of 9.63% at 91.5c per unit.

Some people asked me if Sabana REIT is still a good investment even though it has gone XD. Well, look at the numbers I have laid out above. What do you think? As an investment for income, I cannot find any big negatives with the REIT at this point in time. Indeed, I expect its performance over the next two years to be rather stable, everything else remaining equal, and that's a primary objective when we are investing for income.

Technically, the price gapping down today and going beyond the lower Bollinger band is very bearish. Notice, however, that the volume is the lowest in the last five sessions. This suggests that there is little selling pressure even though the REIT is trading XD, well, not at the current price level anyway. 91.5c is also supported by the 161.8% Fibo line while 91c is immediate support.

Could price weaken further? Although I do not think it probable, yes, possibly. Placing the 100% Fibo line at today's low of 91c gives us an idea of where the next downside supports might be found. 90c, 89.5c, 89c and 88c. At 88c, the distribution yield would be about 10%.

If price were to weaken further, I would not bother guessing why people were selling down the REIT. I would simply march in and buy more.

NOL: A favourable wind is blowing.

NOL was a star performer today as its share price advanced 9c or 4.9% to close at $1.93, the day's high. A long wickless white candle was formed on the back of very high volume. This bodes well for the bulls and we could see the company's share price pushing higher tomorrow.

Higher up, much stronger resistance would be felt in a band from $1.98 to $2.00.  The trendline resistance also approximates $2.00. To go higher, the downtrend that started on 5 January has to be broken decisively. Could it happen this week?

The MACD has formed another higher low although the counter's share price formed a lower low. Positive divergence? Yes, looks like it. So, to take advantage of the positive divergence, buy and hold?

Well, I am somewhat apprehensive as NOL is in a multi-month downtrend and conventional wisdom which believes that the trend is our friend would say that we sell at resistance in a downtrend. It might be prudent to err on the side of caution. When in doubt, I divest partially.

NOL up on improving container sector outlook. NOL said last week it carried 12% more cargo in the four weeks to April 8 from a year ago, helped by higher traffic on intra-Asia and Asia-Europe routes.
Monday, 09 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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Golden Agriculture: A picture says a thousand words.

A picture says a thousand words and that is really the appeal of technical analysis. This is, of course, if we are able to interpret the picture and sort out the signs.

I keep saying that the long term uptrend of Golden Agriculture is intact. Well, it is still intact. Take a look at the weekly chart here, starting from the week of 27 Oct 2008:

The counter's share price is retesting the long term trendline support which coincides with the rising 50wMA. Since the week of 17 Jan 2011, trading volume has declined. The black candles formed in the last three weeks have relatively short bodies, suggesting a tight range of prices.

The spring is coiling up and tension is building. Immediate upside target is 70.5c while a failure of the trendline support could see price going down to 57c which is where we find the rising 100wMA.

General Election results and the stock market.

I have kept politics out of my blog. It is an investment and personal finance blog. However, some have asked me what I think the General Election results would mean for Singapore and for the stock market.  Well, I guess we could talk about this while having "tea".

The PAP had the slimmest of margins since 1963, capturing 60.1% of valid votes, but they did manage to retain 81 out of the 87 seats in Parliament. The loss of the Aljunied GRC helmed by BG George Yeo who was our Minister for Foreign Affairs is perhaps the biggest setback for the PAP. However, politics aside, to me at least, losing Aljunied GRC would not derail Singapore's economy. Nor would it affect the local stock market adversely.

There is no doubt in my mind that Singapore's economic miracle since independence is the result of the astute leadership by the PAP and their founding members like Mr. Lee Kuan Yew and Dr. Goh Keng Swee. Over the decades, the economy strengthened, the country prospered and the people's lives improved under the leadership of Mr. Goh Chok Tong and Mr. Lee Hsien Loong in their terms as Prime Ministers. Things have definitely changed for the better over the decades but, in the last couple of years, a mood of discontent became more evident.

This General Election was a very emotional one and the electorate have sent a strong signal to the PAP that not everything is well.  When did things start to change? If the election had taken place right after the recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009, I am willing to hazard a guess that the PAP would have done better, being responsible for myriad ideas like the Job Credits which helped to keep hundreds of thousands of Singaporeans employed during the depths of the crisis. Human beings have a short memory and a focus on the immediate is quite normal.

So, has the PAP fallen short? I would say that their position weakened as they did not keep up with the changes on the ground. In so many aspects of life, change is the only constant. Ignore change and we become irrelevant. It is either we change together and stay relevant or we get left behind. I certainly hope that the PAP learn from this experience and emerge a stronger and more sensitive government.

We are investors and, naturally, we are concerned about the economy and continuing prosperity of the country. We have vested interests. The PAP has been good for the economy of Singapore. Will the investment community lose confidence in the Singapore economy because the PAP has lost a GRC? I do not think so.

The PAP's leadership over the decades transformed Singapore into a small economic powerhouse but Singapore's domestic economy remains very small (yes, even with five million people living and working here) and we are more affected by externalities. Our economy remains very open and vulnerable to externalities. If the stock market should suffer a decline, more likely than not, it would be because of some global shifts in liquidity or fundamentals. Soon, GE 2011 would just be a memory and I would not dwell on or read too much into the results.