The email address in "Contact AK: Ads and more" above will vanish from November 2018.

PRIVACY POLICY

FAKE ASSI AK71 IN HWZ.

Featured blog.

1M50 CPF millionaire in 2021!

Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...

Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.

Archives

"E-book" by AK

Second "e-book".

Another free "e-book".

4th free "e-book".

Pageviews since Dec'09

Financially free and Facebook free!

Recent Comments

ASSI's Guest bloggers

Golden Agriculture: 68c support.

Saturday, July 9, 2011

In my last blog post, I said that chances of a breakdown in price are higher. I have been proven wrong by Mr. Market, once again demonstrating the risky business of guessing Mr. Market's future movements.

Golden Agriculture's share price touched a high of 71.5c on very high volume before closing at 70.5c in the last session.


People ask me if the price could go higher? Well, only Mr. Market knows. What we know is that 68c is now support and 71.5c remains a significant resistance. Overcoming 71.5c could see price going higher and we could even see the gap closed at 76c. With such huge volume in the last session, chances are fair that this could happen. A pull back should find support at 68c.

Good luck to us all.

First REIT: Yield accretive purchase in South Korea.

First REIT has bought a hospital in South Korea. This has a nett property income (NPI) yield of 9% and is a yield accretive purchase. The purchase is most likely going to increase the distribution per unit (DPU) for unitholders since it will be fully funded by debt, increasing its gearing level from 13.8% to 16.4%. Expectations of a higher DPU could account for the recent strength of the REIT's unit price as it closed at 80.5c/unit in the last session.

I generally like the numbers and I also like the fact that the debt is to be a US$ denominated bank loan. Expecting the US$ to continue weakening against Asian currencies in time, I believe this to be a good idea. However, it remains to be seen if the management would be able to manage this single property so far away from S.E. Asia efficiently.

For example, the recent divestment of its single property in Japan by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was a prudent move as it could not benefit from any economies of scale having only one property in Japan and it chose to concentrate on its operations in Singapore instead. Could First REIT's latest acquisition be a bad idea in a hasty effort to expand the REIT's portfolio to the targetted $1b value? Time will tell.

Going back to dollars and cents, how much would the DPU be, post acquisition? Based on 9% NPI yield and the purchase price of S$16m, very roughly, I estimate an annual income contribution of $1.4m. The REIT currently has an annual NPI of about $60m. So, by proportion, we could see  >2% increase in DPU. The current DPU of the REIT is about 6.4c per annum. Not much to rave about but nice to have.

My investment in First REIT remains a relatively large one and it is likely to remain that way in the near future.

See presentation slides here.
See announcement here.

This kid can dance!

Thursday, July 7, 2011



Totally amazing! This kid can dance!

Win a Seinheiser Headphone!

MARIGOLD PEEL FRESH is all about feeling fresh and keeping fresh, with loads of vitamins and juicy goodness. We invite you to give us your freshest take on fresh.

Browse thru the entries and vote for your fave coz one lucky voter each week stand to win a Seinheiser Headphone!

Vote today to win a Seinheiser Headphone!

Related post:
Win a fresh Apple iPad2!

Singapore industrial property market picking up!

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

People tell me to be careful about investing so much in industrial property S-REITs. They think it is going to experience a contraction in demand. I personally do not think so and shared my research here in my blog.

"According to Colliers International, average monthly gross rents for prime factory and warehouse spaces surged between 6 and 7 per cent on-quarter. This was the fastest quarterly growth in three years.

"But rents for all segments of prime factory and warehouse space are still below peak rates in the second half of 2008...


"Chia Siew Chuin, Director of Research & Advisory of Colliers International, said rents and capital values of industrial properties are expected to grow more moderately, in the range of 10 per cent in second half of this year." Read full article here.

For AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, leases representing 4.3% of its rental income are due to expire in the financial year ending March 2012. We could see some positive rental income growth and, therefore, higher DPU, everything else remaining equal. With its properties likely to enjoy another bout of revaluation upwards, we could see its gearing level dropping as well. Good news are in the pipeline, it would seem.

Good luck to fellow unitholders.

Related posts:
Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs.
Industrial rent forecasts strongest for Singapore.

Worst ever NDP song!

Legal issues aside, this song is really mindless.

We are celebrating National Day! We are suppose to celebrate Singapore's achievements and vision for the future!

How does this "Fun Pack Song" fit into the picture? It is demeaning! The organising committee should be taken to task! Definitely in bad taste.

Haresh Sharma, this is a joke!

I want Newater and I want a cold drink
You and me, let's share a bit
I want a biscuit and I want a sweet
You and me, let's share this treat

Puke nation!

See the video here:
http://youtu.be/aoExTn7PC2E

Hyflux secures funds of S$150m.


The Tuaspring desalination plant is part of a project expected to cost S$890 million, which the firm said it is "on track" to secure funds for this second tranche.

More fund raising exercises on the way, I think.

Related posts:
Hyflux: 6% perpetual Class A preference shares.
Hyflux: $800 million bridge loan.

Male cheerleader brings it on!

Tuesday, July 5, 2011



Thoroughly entertaining and somewhat disarming!

Golden Agriculture: FA and TA.

I retain a very small long position in Golden Agriculture. The price of crude palm oil (CPO) has made a new low for 2011, closing at RM3,040.

"Inventories are likely to accumulate in the coming months, unless prices fall to around MYR2,700-MYR2,800/ton, levels that might spur strong physical demand for the commodity and prompt traders to buy on dips, said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur...

"June output is expected to rise 7%-10%, from 1.74 million tons the previous month, and end-June stocks could rise by as much as 24% to 2.38 million tons." Dow Jones Newswires, July 05, 2011 07:17 ET (11:17 GMT).

The longer term fundamentals, given the strong and growing demand for the vegetable oil, are still intact. However, short term weakness could present rather strong downward pressure on prices. Therefore, I am exercising caution and not adding to my long position in Golden Agriculture. This decision is also informed by technical analysis.


If we look at Golden Agriculture's daily chart, the symmetrical triangle is quite obvious. Two thirds to its apex, we could see a movement breaking the triangle in the near future. Up or down? With price finding it hard to recapture support provided by the 200dMA, the bias is towards the downside. With the ADX indicating a lack of trend, look to the Stochastics for clues. It is turning down from the border of the overbought region. Some softness in the counter's share price would not be surprising.


A look at the weekly chart shows that the Stochastics has broken support. A weakened momentum is obvious. If price were to break the symmetrical triangle to the downside, we could see a test of support provided by the 100wMA. 61c? Could happen.


Long holders could be walking on thin ice here. Good luck.


Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Strong resistance.

Capitaland: Weekly chart.

Monday, July 4, 2011

Capitaland seems to be enjoying a respite.

A quick look at the weekly chart suggests that a retest of the declining 20wMA as resistance is likely. It could happen this week or the next couple of weeks.


If I were to hazard a guess, it could be at $3.14 if it should happen as that is also where we see some resistance provided by the candlesticks. However, volume declined in the last couple of weeks. So, this brings into question whether recent strength is sustainable.

Wait and see.


Monthly Popular Blog Posts

All time ASSI most popular!

 
 
Bloggy Award