First REIT: Could retest 84c high.

Just like Cache Logistics Trust, First REIT saw its unit price moving higher on the back of higher volume in the last session.

Unlike my position in Cache Logistics Trust, however, my long position in First REIT is much larger and I stand ready to sell into strength if the opportunity presents itself.

It seems to me that First REIT's unit price broke out of an ascending triangle pattern. If this pattern is a valid one, we could see the high achieved in late July earlier this year tested. This is at 84c. Before that, I expect gap filling at 81c which could offer some resistance.

In an earlier blog post, I also said the fair value of the REIT is at 80c. So, if you have guessed that I have put in sell orders at 81c and 84c, you are right.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

Cache Logistics Trust: Further divestment at $1.

On 29 August, I mentioned that the mini double bottom, if valid, could see price go higher with a target of $1. On that same day, I partially divested my investment in the REIT as gap was filled at 96c.

On 8 September, I divested further at 98c which I thought was a rather stubborn resistance. The stochastics also showed the REIT to be very much overbought.

However, as is my usual style, recognising that TA is all about probability and never certainty, I did not divest fully. Today, my overnight sell order at $1 for Cache Logistics Trust was filled late in the afternoon.

With today's further divestment, my investment in Cache Logistics Trust is reduced to a rather small position, similar in size to my remaining investment in Suntec REIT. I would probably not do a full divestment unless Mr. Market should go crazy and give me a much higher price from here.

Technically, closing at $1.01 on the back of relatively high volume is good news for long holders and we could see the historic high of $1.02 tested next.

With Stochastics still high in the overbought region, we could see the REIT's unit price pulling back to supports. Of course, in extremely bullish circumstances, overbought conditions could persist for quite a while.

Related posts:
Cache Logistics Trust: Gap closed at 96c.
Cache Logistics Trust: Partial divestment at 98c.

Year end vacation: Great deals!

If you are still planning to go on that year end vacation and missed NATAS, never fear! There are still great deals around!

As I am also planning year end vacations, I came across a few good deals but you have to book soon as prices tend to increase towards end of the year.


Phuket (3D/2N), second half of November 2011.
Package price for 2 persons: S$584.00
(includes all taxes and fees.)
Airline: JetStar.
Hotel: Burasari Patong (4 star boutique hotel).

Bangkok (3D/2N), second half of November 2011.
Package price for 2 persons: S$647.12
(includes all taxes and fees.)
Airline: JetStar.
Hotel: Baiyoke Sky Hotel (4 star 88 storey high hotel).

Click on the banner to see more good deals!

Book online conveniently.

No service charge for credit card payment. Bon voyage!

Sabana REIT: 3A Joo Koon Circle and 2 Toh Tuck Link.

Sabana REIT is acquiring two more properties.

1. 2 Toh Tuck Link
Price: $39.8 m
Remaining lease: 45 years

2. 3A Joo Koon Circle
Price: $40.2 m
Remaining lease: 36 years

The purchases will be financed by debt.
With these acquisitions, gearing will be raised 33.7%.

Technically, trading of Sabana REIT's units is seeing decreasing volume as price hits a stubborn resistance at 89c. Although the MACD is rising, it is still in negative territory. A retest of support would be nice before a stronger push to break resistance.

If 89c resistance could be taken out convincingly, I expect the next major resistance to be at 92c, which was formerly an important support. Before that, there is 90c to contend with. 90c is also where we find the declining 50dMA.

I could buy more if the support at 88c should be tested in the near term.

See announcements here:
3A Joo Koon Circle
2 Toh Tuck Link

Phillip Securities: BUY. Target: $1.12.

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant Industrial Reit rated 'outperform' by Daiwa Capital with six-month target price of $1.05. DPU forecasts up by just over 5% for 2012-2013.
Thursday, 15 September 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Fright Night!

Thinking of going to the movies? Wondering what to watch?

Charley Brewster (Anton Yelchin) is a high school senior who’s on top of the world — that is until Jerry (Colin Farrell) moves in next door and Charlie discovers that he is a vampire preying on the neighbourhood.

Click and find out more about Fright Night!

No change to my plan as I plan changes to my life.

Recently, I have not been blogging very much about the stock market or anything to do with investments, I am sure regular readers have noticed. There are various reasons for this but the primary reason is because I have put in place a plan for whichever direction the stock market may go.

If the stock market should trade sideways, I will keep the status quo and simply collect income from my investments. There is no need to trade constantly.

However, recent and future changes in my life are likely to result in less free time in future. I am and will be spending more time with my family, on self-improvement and, perhaps, even travelling.

Although I am not really affected by the current state of the stock market, going by the emails I have received, I know many people are. It is no surprise that many are wondering what to do. Should they hold? Should they sell? Should they buy more?

I always tell people that if they do not feel comfortable investing in something, don't. There is no point in being invested in the hope of making money and getting sleepless nights worrying about how the investment might turn out.

Of course, for the more open-minded and those with more questioning minds, asking questions to understand why the discomfort exists is the way to go. From there, go one step further, ask questions and see if the reasons for any aversion are actually valid. This would point us in the right direction.

Now, regular readers would know that I am heavily invested in certain S-REITs. I continue to believe that the very low interest rate environment which is likely to persist till 2013 is going to be good for REITs.

In an environment where economic growth is more likely to be revised downwards than upwards, REITs' more predictable and consistent income streams are also a big plus. REITs can continue to do well even with a reduction in economic growth or even with zero growth. In prolonged recessions, REITs are also quite resilient even if some tenants go broke because of the many months of rental deposits they collect from tenants.

So, being relatively heavy in S-REITs which provide between 8 to 10% per annum in distribution yield while I sit out the volatility in the stock market provides me with a peace of mind and some meaningful regular income at the same time.

Recently, there were people who mentioned that we have to be concerned with the fact that most industrial properties in Singapore are between 30 to 60 years leasehold in nature. Therefore, the high distribution yields are not perpetual. Of course, they are not perpetual but this does not mean that they do not make good investments in the meantime.

I learned through experience that freehold properties do not necessarily mean that they will do better in terms of valuations or rental income. It only means that they are yours in perpetuity. I can say for a fact that certain leasehold properties have done much better than freehold properties in the last few years. How much a piece of real estate is worth depends on demand. It is quite simple.

With demand for industrial properties, especially high tech industrial types, likely to remain resilient in Singapore, investing in industrial properties S-REITs with stronger numbers cannot go far wrong. In this respect, Sabana REIT has my vote.

What about AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT? Well, even its most vehement detractors (mostly from its MI-REIT days) must admit that the REIT has done much better since George Wang et al came into the picture. Like I said in an earlier blog post, some short term pain is likely with the redevelopment of 20 Gul Way but the longer term benefits make it worthwhile.

Finally, to dispel the misconception that I am a diehard optimist of REITs, I will say again that it is unlikely that conditions will always remain this benign for REITs. I am, therefore, unlikely to remain heavily invested in REITs forever. There will, most probably, come a time to divest but the time is not now.

Of course, my believes remain just believes. They form partially the basis for the plan I have in place now. Although I feel that my plan will serve me well, there is no way to be sure until the storm is over. Do your own due diligence and if you feel that my plan suits your purpose, go for it.

With my finances almost on auto-pilot, I will try to spend more time on other aspects of my life from now.

Related post:
Staying positive on S-REITs.

Tom Ford Nicole Sunglasses - Only US$129.99

I am not a fashionable person and I had no idea what was Tom Ford until a friend told me it is a luxury brand a few months ago.

This friend of mine also bought a pair of Tom Ford glasses. My glasses almost fell off my face when I heard the price!

If we must buy luxury brand goods, at least we should get them at good prices. Well, that's how I see it anyway.

From now through the 19th, you can buy Tom Ford Nicole Sunglasses for only US$129.99 for a savings of US$260.01 (67%).

This is an amazing product deal. So, I am promoting it while it lasts.

Tea with AK71: McDonald's shows us how!

We often come across signs at eateries which say "No studying." Although these signs do the job, they are not very friendly and they do nothing positive for the public image of the establishment as well.

We know the reason for these signs but couldn't they be worded nicely?

A good example of how it should be done!

Thumbs up for McDonald's!

Singapore Airlines: Slow to board the social media flight?

I might be slow here but I only read in The Business Times recently that SIA took over an unofficial facebook page. Apparently, the SIA facebook page was originally set up by fans and had almost 100,000 members.

Until almost two years ago, I didn't really know what was social media. OK, I heard of blogs, which I thought was a classy bog, and Twitter, which I thought was a noisy chatroom, and Facebook, which I thought was a vanity item. Yes, that's me, an IT dinosaur.

After I got the hang of blogging, it took me quite a while to get on Twitter and, more recently, Facebook. While blogging serves a purpose for me, being a platform for me to pen my thoughts and analyses, I could not see any advantages of being on Twitter and Facebook. I only started accounts because of requests by some readers.

Since starting a Twitter account many months ago, a grand total of 33 people are following my blogs using it. My Facebook account is less than a month old, so, having 3 members is a start. However, I think the most popular way in which readers follow my blog is still through Feedburner. Almost 600 people are following my blogs via feeds!

I know people who have terminated their Twitter accounts because they were not very successful. I also know people who claim that Facebook is more effective than Twitter in spreading the word. I kind of suspect that these are just different tools for different purposes and, most probably, Feedburner is the best tool for my blog to keep readers updated.

So, the view that SIA is very late in latching onto social media and how it has been detrimental to its business is something I do not quite understand. For those who do understand, please be kind to me. Laugh a little if you must but enlighten me with your insights please. :)

Tea with AK71: Good food at good prices!

Recently, I had some good food at good prices:

Breakfast at Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf. 1 for 1. I paid $7.70 for two sets of the above plus two cups of tea. A great deal!

This was a treat because I always see a long queue at the Western Cuisine stall at Kopitiam, Bukit Panjang Plaza. I hate to wait too long for my food but there was no queue that day! $6.10 after discount! Not bad.

Buuuuuuurp! I was a happy man! :D