The email address in "Contact AK: Ads and more" above will vanish from November 2018.

PRIVACY POLICY

FAKE ASSI AK71 IN HWZ.

Featured blog.

1M50 CPF millionaire in 2021!

Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...

Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.

Archives

"E-book" by AK

Second "e-book".

Another free "e-book".

4th free "e-book".

Pageviews since Dec'09

Financially free and Facebook free!

Recent Comments

ASSI's Guest bloggers

Mr. Lee Kuan Yew on the eurozone crisis.

Saturday, January 14, 2012


I just received the latest copy of Alumnus in the mail and on page 4 is a one page write up on what Mr. Lee Kuan Yew said during LKY School of Public Policy's 7th Anniversary. He said something about the eurozone which got me interested enough to search for more details online.

The one liner that got me interested was: "Mr. Lee thinks European leaders will try very hard to prevent the collapse of their currency union but he does not believe they will be able to keep it going." So, does he think that the eurozone will ultimately dissolve?

Searching the internet, I found a website with the details:

... European leaders will try to save the euro zone from collapse, because a collapse of the currency union would be “an admission that their aspiration for one Europe is not achievable”.

.......

“A fundamental problem of the euro is that everybody, every European country, march to the same drummer whereas each country has its own tempo and you cannot expect the Greeks to march like the Germans, so the problem will not go away”.

Therefore, he added, “a two-tier Europe or even a three-tier Europe is possible but a one-tier Europe with different spending habits, thrift habits and discipline is too difficult to achieve”.

The euro came into existence in 1999 with the aim of increasing economic cooperation and growth in Europe, and upping Europe’s presence on the world stage.

With the recent debt crises, the currency union forces other European countries to bail out troubled  members and policymakers are denied the flexibility of monetary policy as a tool to fight recession.


Read articles: here and here.

So, will the eurozone go the way of the Dodo? If it will, when will it happen? 

Your guess is as good as mine. 

One thing is for sure, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew has spoken and I will take note.

------------------------------
Seven eurozone countries had their ratings confirmed while nine were downgraded by S&P on 13 Jan (Friday). It downgraded France's top AAA rating by one notch to AA+, with a negative outlook while  Italy went down by two notches to BBB+, negative outlook, and Spain was also down two notches to A, negative outlook.

Read article: here.


BREXIT!

Updated on 25 June 2016: Prime Minister David Cameron is to step down by October after the UK voted to leave the European Union. Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, he said "fresh leadership" was needed. The PM had urged the country to vote Remain but was defeated by 52% to 48% despite London, Scotland and Northern Ireland backing staying in. (Source: BBC)


The UK is likely to lose its AAA credit rating after it voted to Leave the EU. Moritz Kramer, chief ratings officer for S&P, said on Friday morning that the UK's AAA rating was “untenable under the circumstances”. German daily newspaper Bild quoted Kramer as saying: “If Great Britain decides for a Brexit in the EU referendum on Thursday, then the AAA credit rating would come due and would be downgraded within a short period of time.” (Source: Independent)


Related post:
Stakeholders should worry as credit is tightening.

Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Releasing quarterly results on 20 January 2012.

Both Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT will be releasing quarterly financial results on 20 January 2012.

Sabana REIT: see announcement here.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: see announcement here.



Sabana REIT has completed a few acquisitions in the last quarter. However, I think their contributions to distributable income will be more substantial in the current quarter. This is because the acquisitions where completed in November and December and not at the beginning of the last quarter.

On 22 November, acquisitions of the following were completed:

1. 3A Joo Koon Circle
2. 2 Toh Tuck Link
3. 21 Joo Koon Crescent

See announcement here.

On 7 December, the acquisition of 39 Ubi Road 1 was completed. Read announcement here.

On 15 December, the acquisition of 6 Woodlands Loop was completed. Read announcement here.

All acquisitions were funded by debt and would contribute to a higher DPU. Conservatively, I am expecting a DPU of 2.2c or a bit more to be announced on 20 Jan.

We could see a higher DPU in the next quarter when full quarter contributions from the aforesaid completed acquisitions weigh in.



As for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, redevelopment of 20 Gul Way is ongoing and seems to be progressing nicely. Higher income due to this redevelopment will materialise only in 1Q 2013. I blogged about it before. See it here and how I bought more units at 93.5c.

It would be nice to have a repeat of 2.5c DPU when results are released on 20 Jan although I would not be surprised if DPU dips a bit due to possible loss of rental income from the redevelopment of 20 Gul Way. I mentioned it last year in a blog post as well: here.

Unit prices of both Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT have been creeping up. Their unit prices closed at 90c and 97.5c respectively in the last session. With the estimates I have made, this would mean annualised distribution yields of roughly 9.78% and 10.26% respectively.

Good luck to all unit holders.

Kaplan Higher Education Institute

Friday, January 13, 2012


Kaplan Higher Education Institute, one of the preferred private education institutions in Singapore, partners Northumbria University from the UK.

Northumbria University is one of the largest and most comprehensive UK education providers in Asia.

This partnership brings to Singapore a wide variety of Direct Honours and Masters programmes. These programmes are mainly assignment based and can be complete in just 16 months!

If you are thinking of furthering your studies, you can now get a study grant should you present the completed maze available islandwide (a print out can be obtained from the website) to their consultants.

Give it a go and you might just get yourself a study grant:
http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/kaplangame

First REIT: Resistance and supports.

First REIT has been very resilient. It is probably one of the better performers in my portfolio as well. A great investment for income.

However, investing for income does not mean that we cannot trade S-REITs from time to time especially if they remain range bound and somewhat predictable.



In the case of First REIT, if we look at the weekly chart, it is caught between the 50w and the 20w MAs. Immediate resistance is at 77.5c while immediate support is at 76.5c. Breaking immediate resistance could see 79.5c tested next while breaking immediate support could see 74.5c tested.

Now, which way would it go? My take? In the short term, price could go higher. Why?



Looking at the daily chart, we see the MACD just crossing into positive territory while the MFI overcame the 50% line which acted as resistance. The MFI continues to move higher.

However, the formation of a dragonfly doji on a day of relatively high volume suggests that selling pressure at 77c remains formidable. The longer it successfully prevents price from closing higher, the stronger it becomes as resistance.

Why does resistance at 77c seem so strong? It is the confluence of the 50d, 100d and 200d MAs.

SMRT: Downtrend intact.

Technically speaking, SMRT doesn't look good and I am not referring to its trains stalling. OK, bad joke.

Lower high and lower low in price are accompanied by a lower high and lower low in the MACD which is in negative territory. The downtrending MFI suggests reduced demand as the 50% line acted as resistance.



However, forming a doji provides some encouragement for long holders. The doji represents indecision and is a stalemate between bulls and bears.

That the doji formed despite higher volume on a day when price went lower than the low of the previous session suggests that there is some buying support. However, it could also be traders covering their short positions ahead of the weekends.

Single stick reversal signals are usually less reliable. For anyone who is interested in going long here, look out for confirmation next Monday.

If the signal is not confirmed, a lower low could form. $1.70? Perhaps.

Hyflux: Retest of recent high.

Resistance at $1.28 gave way today as price retested the recent high of $1.35. Volume was relatively high. This translates into a higher probability of price pushing higher in the next session. Remember that volume is the fuel that drives rallies.



MACD continues to rise in positive territory. Buying momentum is still positive and strengthening. The MFI continues to rise after bouncing off 50% a few sessions ago. This suggests that demand is still strong.

There is a chance of the counter's price testing $1.39 in the near future. However, I would be happy to divest partially at $1.365 where price could close the gap formed in early November 2011.

Related post:
Hyflux: Early stage of trend reversal?

CapitaMalls Asia: 20wMA, the resistance to watch.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

If you think the title of this blog post looks familiar, it should be. ;)

If you look at the weekly chart of CapitaMalls Asia, you would know why:


Compare this with:
Capitaland: 20wMA, the resistance to watch.

Capitaland: 20wMA, the resistance to watch.

Quite a few people asked me what do I think of Capitaland as I have not said anything about it in a while. Well, if we look at the weekly chart, it is obvious that the downtrend is intact.


However, the higher low on the MACD which accompanies the lower low in price gives us a positive divergence. Being in the weekly chart, it suggests that we could see a recovery in price eventually.

A recovery could meet with resistance provided by the declining 20wMA. If we notice, this MA has functioned as resistance since late October 2010. Yes, Capitaland's downtrend has gone on for more than a year.

The 20wMA is important because:

1. For traders, this is where they would probably sell.

2. If the 20wMA holds as resistance, price would probably form a lower high and continue to move lower.

3. If the 20wMA breaks and price moves higher on the back of increased volume, the downtrend could be broken and it might even reverse. Short covering could push price even higher.

What would I do? Sell at resistance at least partially. It is never wrong to take profit, especially in uncertain times such as now.

Hyflux: Early stage of trend reversal?

I was going to blog about Hyflux last night but I got home rather late. Anyway, Hyflux's share price has been rather bouyant. Immediate resistance at $1.28 is a relatively weak one but it does not mean that it cannot prevent price from going higher.


People sometimes ask me how do I tell if a resistance or support is weak or strong. If it was tested many times before, it is strong. If it was tested many times before in the weekly chart, it is even stronger. It is stronger if it had not been compromised when tested in the recent past. Of course, there is an element of subjectivity here and these are just my little ideas.

Yesterday, a white candle with a long upper wick was formed as price closed at $1.27 after touching a high of $1.30. Volume was relatively high but the long upper wick suggests some selling pressure was present as traders locked in gains.

MACD is still rising in positive territory which suggests that there is positive buying momentum. The lower trading volume in the first two hours of the current session suggests a possibly less exuberant Mr. Market. So, do I sell? I could do so and book a gain.

However, I see that the declining 50dMA has acted as support. It is currently at $1.215. The 20dMA has turned up a few sessions ago and looks like it could form a golden cross with the 50dMA in time. So, with immediate support at $1.215 and with the MACD rising, there is a chance that price could go higher, given some time.

In the weekly chart, it is worth noting that the MACD has turned up and completed a bullish crossover with the signal line. However, it is still in negative territory. So, momentum is still negative in the longer term and any upward movement in price could be fraught with obstacles. Having said this, the development in the weekly chart suggests that selling pressure has eased and could see investors loading up at supports with less trepidation.

A higher high could see resistance provided by the declining 100dMA tested. This is at $1.39. Before that, we might see gap filling at $1.365. For anyone who is in the money, a partial divestment to lock in some gains could be considered. For anyone who would like to add to his long position, buying as close to the support of $1.215 as possible would be nice.

P.S. I am unable to include charts in this blog post. I might do it later this evening at home. Of course, the charts could look different by the close of today's session.

Daily Chart:



Weekly Chart:

Golden Agriculture: 3 signs of possible weakness.

Monday, January 9, 2012

I am waiting to add to my long position here. There are signs that price could see some weakness in time to come.



1. Formation of a gravestone doji today on much higher volume. This suggests that buyers were unable to beat sellers as market participants mostly chose to lock in gains.

2. Declining volume as price rose. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies. Without volume, rallies would fizzle out.

3. A lower high on the MACD even as price formed a higher high. A negative divergence. Buying momentum is in decline.

Immediate support is at 72c. If this should fail to hold, I expect the 200d MA, a long term MA to be tested. This is currently at 67.5c.


Monthly Popular Blog Posts

All time ASSI most popular!

 
 
Bloggy Award