LMIR: 4Q 2011 results.

In recent weeks, I noticed that in some publications including The Business Times which compare high yielding stocks in Singapore, LMIR's distribution yield was overstated probably based on historical quarterly DPU. Historically, LMIR's quarterly DPU hovers at around 1c.

Recently acquired Pluit Village.

Personally, I estimated the DPU after acquisitions and rights issue to be closer to 3.26c per annum which works out to be 0.815c per quarter.

As a reader correctly pointed out not too long ago, the first DPU after the recent acquisitions and rights issue is likely to be lower because the acquisitions would have only been completed in December 2011. Indeed, DPU for 4Q 2011 (Oct to Dec 2011) is 0.53c, including contributions from recent acquisitions for the period of 6 December to 31 December 2011.

Income distribution is payable on 16 March.

Plaza Medan Fair.

This lower DPU likely disappointed Mr. Market as LMIR's unit price dipped from the start of the trading day, closing 1.5c lower at 39c but not before touching a low of 38.5c. If we were to annualise the quarterly DPU of 0.53c, it would mean an annual DPU of 2.12c or a distribution yield of only 5.3% based on a unit price of 40c. This would be a mistake, however.

Any investor with a longer term perspective should not worry as this much lower quarterly DPU is probably temporary. Over time, even my estimate of 3.26c in annual DPU should be surpassed, all else remaining equal.

Some numbers:

NAV/unit: 60c.
Gearing: 8.7%
Ave. cost of debt: 6.7% p.a.

See slides presentation: here.

So, should we rush to buy units of LMIR now? Not me. Why?

Although its unit price has declined from the ascribed fair value of 41c which sees a distribution yield of 7.95% with an estimated annual DPU of 3.26c, there could be more room to fall. This could happen once the REIT goes XD.

A doji was formed today as price closed lower. A doji suggests indecision and this could be due to the fact that the REIT is still trading CD. However, a gapping down is bearish. The very high volume on a down day reinforced the bearish picture.

The MACD has made a bearish crossover with the signal line which suggests that positive momentum has weakened. MFI and Stochastics are nowhere near oversold and we don't have a buy signal. If anything, the bearish divergence we spotted some time back is being played out now. The uptrend is broken.

It remains to be seen if immediate support at 38.5c as provided by the declining 100d MA would hold. If it should give, next support is at 37c which is where we find the upturning 50d MA.

Related post:
LMIR: A slow and steady climb.

STI breaks 3,000 points and stays above 3,000 points!

Although I am keeping to my pledge to spend more time with my family this year, I am also blogging less frequently because work got a bit more demanding.

I might have some spare time occassionally but instead of blogging, I just feel like spending time with a book or watching some movies on my iPad.

I know that some readers are lamenting the recent paucity of blog posts in ASSI and I apologise if I have disappointed.

Anyway, let's talk about my investments. I am now between 50% to 60% invested, closer to 50% is my estimate. With the bulk of my investment for passive income, I don't really have to do very much apart from looking at quarterly reports and receiving regular passive income.

On the real estate front, I am keeping an eye on developments as, after selling my properties last year, I am on a constant lookout for developments in good locations at fair prices.

3,011.68  Up 24.27

Enough of generalities. I put on my blogging cap this evening because the stock market rallied today and broke the 3,000 mark on high volume. The bull has legs and anyone who is still staying on the side with almost 100% in cash could be feeling quite despondent now.

Personally, I experimented with partially divesting some of my investments in REITs in the hope that prices would weaken upon XD to supports so that I could accumulate on weakness. This gambit has fared poorly, unfortunately for me.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, the second largest investment in my portfolio, rocketed to an intraday high of $1.10 before closing at $1.085. Fundamentally, it is still undervalued although technically, $1.10 could be a resistance to watch. The next higher resistance is at $1.125 while support is at the former resistance of $1.025.

My original plan of buying on weakness at 97c or so has to be shelved for now.

Sabana REIT, the largest investment in my portfolio, has tested its recent high of 91.5c yet again. Immediate support is at 90c. See the higher lows formed since early August 2011 while price repeatedly tested the gap resistance and gap fill at 91c and 91.5c?

Could Sabana REIT break resistance and go higher as well? My original plan to purchase more units upon retracement to stronger supports starting at 87c is also being shelved for now.

What is most satisfying about today's rally for me is the long white candle formed on the back of much higher volume for CapitaMalls Asia. The downtrend is well and truly broken. An uptrend is firmly entrenched. Notice how volume has been increasing as price rose from the bottom formed in late December last year? This rally should be durable because volume has been increasing.

Using Fibonacci lines, we see that price closed today at where the 123.6% Fibo line approximates. This is likely a weak resistance and would crumble in time. Golden ratios are at $1.70, $1.75 and $1.795. With half of my investment in the stock at $1.45 and lower, I might take some profit off the table if these ratios should be tested.

30% of my investments are between $1.60 to $1.80. The balance are at $1.80+. These, I might divest to limit losses especially if things look toppish. For now, it looks like price could go higher in the near term. Good luck to one and all.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.
CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.