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Sabana REIT: 3Q 2012 DPU 2.34c.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Sabana REIT reported a robust set of numbers, declaring a DPU of 2.34c. The counter will go XD on 24 Oct and income distribution is payable on 28 Nov.


Total assets under management: $1.1 bn

Occupancy rate: 99.9%

Average all-in financing cost: 4.3%

Weighted average tenor of debt: 3.5 years.

Interest cover ratio: 5.5x

NAV/unit: $1.03

Sabana REIT's higher income from a slew of acquisitions comes with financing cost increasing significantly as well. Gearing is now higher at 38.3%. However, this does not disturb me much as the net result is still positive for unit holders.

In my opinion, the weakness of Sabana REIT remains a high concentration of leases expiring in 2013.  At 47.4%, it has not changed from 3 months ago. My hope is for positive rental reversions which should lead to a higher DPU. I look forward to any growth in income without any significant increase in costs to the REIT.

At the closing price of $1.13 in the last session, the annualised distribution yield is 8.28%. In an environment of very low interest rates, this is still very attractive and a further compression of yield to 7.5% does not seem improbable. That would see unit price at about $1.25.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 2Q 2012 DPU 2.27c

CapitaMalls Asia: Broke resistance.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

I got into CapitaMalls Asia way too early. However, taking a cue from the weekly chart, continual buying means my current long position is in the black. Of course, I have collected some dividends in the meantime as well.

Of course, what I have done is by no means brilliant. Far from it. The brilliant thing to do is to buy only when share price has troughed and looks to be turning up. Another lesson for me.


Technically, CapitaMalls Asia's share price broke resistance at $1.70 and it remains to be seen if this could be resistance turned support. With all the MAs rising, it could indeed be the case although a dip to test the rising 50d MA for support would not be too far fetched. The 50d MA is currently at $1.66.

The rising OBV suggests continual accumulation by smart money in the last 12 months. If this reading is correct, we could see share price climbing a wall of worries in the next few months.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.

Value for money holiday in Hong Kong.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

The year end holidays are just round the corner. Wondering where to bring the family for a vacation this year? Why not Hong Kong? The flight does not take too long and Hong Kong has good food and attractions aplenty.

You might want to bring the kids to Hong Kong Disneyland as well to see Snowy Christmas Town.


 

Find out more at: Christmas Town.

Get a special 4D 3N Hong Kong package to make it a value for money holiday at the same time.

Check out the special offer by following the banner here:

www.zuji.com.sg


Wanna see photos of my trip to Hong Kong last year? See them: here.

Saizen REIT: A retest of resistance at 18c?


On two occasions in the past, I did not partially divest my investment in Saizen REIT as its unit price touched a high of 18c. It was due to a belief that it remained undervalued even at that price. Yesterday, Saizen REIT's unit price broke resistance at 16.8c while it touched a high of 17.7c before closing at 17.4c today. Could we see 18c again soon?


The lower highs on the MACD and the declining OBV are rather ominous. Forming negative divergences with the ever rising unit price, any chart watcher would not be wrong to wonder if a correction could take place soon. In such an instance, immediate support is at the former resistance of 16.8c and if that fails to hold, the next support is at 16.4c.

So, would I sell if a retest of 18c should take place? I could do a partial divestment.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: 2H FY2010.

Sound Global: Accumulate on weakness.


Despite rather positive reports, the share price of Sound Global has been in retreat. Mr Market agrees with my earlier musings in July and August on whether it was a good time to sell, it seems.

Mr. Wen Yibo has been accumulating shares of Sound Global in the last one month and currently holds 56.2% of the shares. He probably knows something that we don't but even if we do not know what he knows, what information is publicly available shows that the fundamentals of Sound Global are sound and that the business is growing.



Technically, Sound Global's share price is experiencing weakness since forming a double top two months ago. The top was at 62c and the neckline at 55c. This suggests a downside target of 48c.

If we draw a trendline connecting the highs since early August, we see a resistance line that approximates the position of the declining 20d MA. Failing to stay above the immediate support at 51c and failing to break out of the down trend could indeed see share price moving to 48c.

What then? I would buy more.

Related post:
Sound Global: Retest of resistance likely.

China Minzhong: Opportunity in slowing momentum.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

A big part of my portfolio is invested for income while the remainder is invested for capital gains. In both instances, once I stop adding to my long positions, the main thing to do is to wait. Wait to collect regular income in the first instance and wait to lock in gains in the second.

I will have more income distributions from S-REITs in November and December. Possibly, there will be dividends to be collected from some stocks as well. I am not too sure as I have not noted the precise dates for some time now.

I also invested in a few stocks, believing that they could deliver some nice capital gains. One such stock is China Minzhong and the last time I blogged about it was about a month ago, declaring that its stock price was emerging from a downtrend. Since then, its stock price has moved to touch a high of 85c.

OBV shows continuing accumulation while the RSI shows the formation of higher lows. There is some support. However, the lower high on the MACD which formed as a higher high formed in stock price, together with the reducing volume as price pushed higher, suggest a weaker positive momentum.



A rising wedge also seems to have formed and this suggests that the stock price could see a retreat in the near term. However, wedges are not terribly reliable patterns and the bearish signal we see here could be negated if volume should simply expand with an upward movement in stock price.

In the event that the rising wedge should deliver, we could expect a correction to see the share price retreat to 68.5c thereabouts. Before that, we could see some support at 75c. The immediate support is at 80c.


The weekly chart is somewhat more encouraging as the MACD has just moved into positive territory. Unlike the daily chart, there is no negative divergence observed here. The longer term picture suggests that any pull back in price is an opportunity to accumulate. The 100w MA, approximately at $1.10 now, could put an eventual cap to any upward movement in stock price in case it should happen.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Emerging from a down trend.


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