Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT): IPO.

Usually, when people ask me about IPOs and if I would take part, I would answer in the negative.

Subscribing to what Warren Buffett thinks about IPOs and that is IPOs of stocks are almost always bad investments, I have not taken part in IPOs in many years. Warren Buffett is of the opinion that IPOs are rarely undervalued offers.

What about the IPO of APTT? Is this an exception?

Well, APTT will be holding TBC which was a business in MIIF's portfolio and we know that TBC was the crown jewel of MIIF's portfolio of businesses. With TBC removed from its portfolio, MIIF saw its unit price tumbled almost 70% yesterday.

At a unit price of 97c, APTT's distribution yield is estimated to be 7.5% in the first year and this is estimated to increase to 8.5% in the second year. With relatively high yields like these waved around, the IPO has attracted a high level of interest from institutional investors.

Indeed, Dow Jones Newswires reported in an article dated 2 May 2013 that 8 cornerstone investors were secured. These are investors who are willing to commit to holding significant stakes which shows their confidence in the Trust.

In a yield hungry world, investors fed up with a low interest rate environment could push up the unit price of APTT when it starts trading on 29 May 2013. Of course, there is no way of telling if this would happen but look at how Croesus Retail Trust saw its unit price rose 23% on its first day of trading recently and we get an idea of just how things could turn out for APTT. Although not really comparable, it suggests that Mr. Market could be quite happy with distribution yield compressing to just 6.5%.

In case you are wondering about gearing (and you should), APTT's gearing is about 40%, while Croesus Retail Trust's gearing is at 47%.

If a distribution yield of 6.5% is what Mr. Market is willing to accept, APTT could trade at $1.12 per unit. If Mr. Market demands a minimum of 7% yield in the first year, we could see APTT trading at $1.03 to $1.04 per unit. If news that the placement tranche was 3 times oversubscribed by institutional investors is reliable, chances are we will see APTT trading higher.

If you are interested in participating in the IPO, take note to do so by 12 noon, 27 May 2013.

Related posts:
1. MIIF: Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT).
2. MIIF: Lower fair value.

Be a real estate owner the easy way (3).

As a follow up to my last blog post which questioned "Am I trying to be the most popular blogger in Singapore", I decided to Google "Singapore Investment Blogs" to see just how popular my blog might be. Curious, you know.

Well, I saw a link with a pretty face on the first page and, in case you are wondering, no, the face was not mine. Anyway, thanks to that link, this blog post was born. Unexpected, really.

The hyperlink says "Wendy Kwek Official Blog" and, apparently, she is a savvy and well known Singaporean property investor. Well known? I should know her but I don't. I should read up about her and I did.

The first line of the third paragraph in the "About me" section gels with me:

"I like to speak with people to engage and inspire them."

I like that although I am more a writer than a speaker.

"My mission is to help average people create extraordinary wealth through property investments."

Now, this sounds powerful. Pretty attractive too, no doubt.

The archives of her blog show that the blog started in August 2012 but I guess Wendy must have been reaching out to people long before that. She runs the "Property Riches Program" and her last blog post dated 9 April 2013 stated that the program saw its 14th batch of graduates and it was a big group, going by the photograph taken of the class!

Personally, I have not attended any program like this before and decided to do a bit more research online to find out more. I found this:

"Learn How To Own Properties With Little Or NO Money Down From Ms Wendy Kwek"

It was part of an ad on a property related website.

OK, this sounds familiar and I think I blogged about this before.
Read: Be a real estate owner the easy way (2).

Is the claim bona fide? Maybe, I don't know. I have not attended the course by Ms. Wendy Kwek before. So, I have nothing definite to say about it other than the fact that the claim sounds too amazing to be true.

Searching the internet to see if there are ways we can own properties with little or no money down, I came across 4 ways:

1. Borrow money to pay the down-payment
2. Co-Invest with other investors
3. Co-Invest with other investors using Central Provident Fund (CPF)
4. Buy overseas property with no money or little money down

Read the full article at Mr. Propwise: 4 ways to buy properties with no money down.

With even previously sceptical people now thinking that there is only one way for property prices to go which is up because of inflation, it is perhaps no wonder that Ms. Wendy Kwek et. al. are highly sought after by investors.

I took the following from the Facebook of Drizzt, the blogmaster of "Investment Moats":

"A condominium in a good location in Singapore can cost at least a million dollars and with the buyer having to fork out some 30% of the total purchase price, the upfront deposit can be a minimum of $300,000 excluding other miscellaneous charges. $300,000 is a figure that can take quite some time for a person on the street to save up to...

"But with property clubs, with a group of common-minded investors, together pooling a sum of monies for property purchases, the sum of monies an investor needs to fork out will be reduced. Take for example, the same $1 million property, with 20 investors, each investor would just need to fork out $50,000. Should the property price ascend to say $3 million, the $2 million profits would be shared among the 20 investors, this will translate to a profit of $100,000 for each investor! To maximise profits, some of these property clubs will ... purchase overseas properties with prices depressed due to the economic cycle."

 

When I commented that people should consider the possible downside, Drizzt said: "Think there is no downside with inflation the name of the game" which, in his opinion, is what the general public is thinking.

 

If you have owned properties with little or no money down before, perhaps, you could share with us your experience here. I am interested in hearing your experience and I am sure other readers would be interested too especially if we could own an investment property (or a few) with no money down in Singapore.

Related posts:
1. Leverage up and buy investment properties now?
2. Selling a private property just got harder.
3. More cooling measures on the way?
4. Buying a piece of real estate within your means.
5. Rich Dad, Poor Dad: 2 are better than 1.

Singapore Police Force - Recruitment.

One thing which most friends and relatives don't know about me is that I wanted to join the Singapore Police Force when I was much younger but my medical status meant that it was a no go. With my degree, I would have been an ASP right away.

Till today, sometimes, I still wonder how I would have turned out as a person if I was accepted.

Anyway, if you are considering a career and if you are a person who values courage, loyalty, integrity and fairness, a career in the Singapore Police Force might just be what you are looking for.

Find out more at:
http://sg.sharings.cc/AK71SG/share/SPF

Plastic hazard in cup noodles!

I bought some Myojo brand cup noodles recently because NTUC Fairprice had a sale. It was $1.30 or $1.40 for two. Cannot remember exactly.

Anyway, in case you buy this, WARNING, do not pour hot water into the container as per usual practice! The smell of plastic was so strong that it was unbearable!

I quickly poured the hot water and noodles into my trusty Tupperware container which I use to bring oatmeal from home everyday. If I didn't have an alternative container close at hand, I would probably have thrown away the noodles, dissolved plastic and all.

No prizes for guessing what I had for breakfast and lunch today. Oh, I also had some very nice cake my sister baked which was a treat!

Myojo noodles are good. I prefer them to Maggi but the use of cheap plastic is really damaging and in more ways than one! Instant noodles lovers, please take heed!

Related post:
Korean noodles for lunch!

Not happy with government? Please emigrate!

I couldn't believe it when I read that the newly appointed Home Minister of Malaysia said that Malaysians who are unhappy with the country's political system should leave the country.

"If these people wish to adopt the list system or the single transferable vote used by countries with the republic form of government, then, they should migrate to these countries to practise their political beliefs," Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
Source: The Straits Times online, 16 May 2013.

I don't see how a statement like this is going to help make things better.

The Minister should realise that, like them or not, these unhappy Malaysians are still Malaysians! They have the right to express their desire for change even if the Minister might not agree with them. Simple, isn't it?

How could someone like this be a Minister? He is a Datuk too. Shame on him.

You might also be interested in this:
Take the good with the bad if we retire to Malaysia.

MIIF: Lower fair value with lower income distributions.

With MIIF divesting TBC, unit holders will no longer be getting income distributions twice a year from the Fund in future.

This is because MIIF receives income from TBC in March and September while it receives income from HNE and CXP in September only.

MIIF will have a DPU of about 0.7c in August 2013 which is from the final income received from TBC. A DPU of about 1.2c will be paid out in March 2014 which will be for income received from HNE and CXP.

In future, we should expect only once a year distribution from MIIF for income received from HNE and CXP. Also, do not expect 1.2c to be the norm either as it is expected that the tolling revisions for HNE will adversely affect DPU for the full year starting in 2014.

What would be a fair value per unit for MIIF when it resumes trading?

In recent past, MIIF was trading at about 63c a unit and with an annual DPU of 5.5c, unit holders were enjoying a distribution yield of some 8.73%. For ease of calculation, let us be generous and assume that an annual DPU of 1.2c will be the norm. This would give us a fair value of 14c per unit, thereabouts, in order to have a similar yield. This would mean a decline in price of some 49c per unit!

If this estimate should gel with Mr. Market, unit holders would have been better off selling at 63c a unit prior to the voluntary trading suspension since unit holders are only getting 44.329c per unit from the divestment of TBC either in cash or in APPT units (priced at 97c per unit).

It would also mean that anyone with a purchase price of 58c or lower per unit, prior to the trading suspension, is quite "safe" while anyone with a higher purchase price could lose money.

Of course, there is a chance that APPT could see higher unit price when trading starts and there is also a chance that MIIF might not see its own unit price plunging to 14c per unit. If this should be the case, then, this effort by the management to unlock value for unit holders could be declared a success.

Anyway, now that we have some ballpark figures, we will be able to make some snap decisions tomorrow, if required, keeping in mind that any investment at the right price is a good investment.

See: MIIF dividend guidance.
See: APPT offer price and MIIF APPT units.

Related post:
MIIF: Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT).

Am I trying to be the most popular blogger in Singapore?

Someone asked if I was trying to be the most popular blogger in Singapore. I don't know why she got that impression. Was it something I said or did? Hmmm...

Anyway, I really am too lazy to work much harder on my blog. Blogging is a hobby and I want to keep it that way. I mean I enjoy blogging enough to want to continue doing it but to work hard at it is really a different ball game, isn't it?

For anyone who has the ability and the will to become a popular blogger, there could be many financial advantages. No kidding? Yes, no kidding! There are enough examples out there.

Xiaxue

A blog I visit from time to time belongs to, arguably, the queen of bloggers in Singapore, Xiaxue.

She makes enough money from her blog to do it full time. I was told she makes $XX,XXX in certain months and has a manager to deal with advertisers!

When she got married, she didn't have to worry about most of her wedding expenses. She had so many sponsors!

See:
http://xiaxue.blogspot.sg/2010/03/my-wedding-solemnization.html
(Just scroll to the end of the blog post if you don't want to look at the photos.)

Then, recently, she got her matrimonial home renovated and, again, she had so many sponsors!

See:
http://xiaxue.blogspot.sg/2013/03/home-decor-part-1-living-room-and.html
(Again, scroll to the end of the blog post and you will see what I mean.)

Pretty amazing!

I think part of Xiaxue's success stems from not being a finance blogger in Singapore. Hahaha... I am only half kidding. Want to have more financial rewards as a blogger? Don't do what I do!

If you don't believe what I just said, you just have to search for blog awards in Singapore and there are quite a few annual events out there but you will never find a category at these awards that says "Best Investment/Personal Finance Blog".

Sobering for some.

Related posts:
1. A couple of thoughts.
2. Request for sponsorship.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Distribution Reinvestment Plan.

Regular readers know that I will always take the income distributions from REITs in cash when they offer a Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) as an alternative.

There are two reasons why I do this and they are because:

1. I invest in REITs primarily for income and accepting new units in lieu of cash distributions means having less passive income.

2. There is a possibility that I could get to buy more units of the REITs cheaper later on.

These seem to be reasonable enough.





However, with the DRP offered by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT with regards to 4Q FY2013's distribution, I have decided to accept some DRP units and the balance in cash.

See? Who said that people who invest in REITs are predictable? Could anyone have predicted this decision of mine? OK, why have I decided to do this?





Let us start with what we all know. The REIT went XD on 26 April 2013 with a DPU of 3.14c. Today, the REIT closed at $1.84 per unit. The DRP units are at the issue price of S$1.6727.

So, there is a 10% difference between the REIT's closing price today and the DRP issue price. 

If we were to take advantage of this, we would get 10% more money than choosing to receive the distribution in cash only, wouldn't we?





For example, if someone who was going to receive S$1,672.70 in cash distribution should opt for new units instead, he could sell these new units for S$1,840.00 to Mr. Market and make some nice pocket money! 

Of course, we wouldn't know if the unit price would still be at S$1.84 later on. It could possibly be lower, after all.

The solution to this is quite simple. The person could sell an equivalent number of units from his existing holdings now to lock in the price of S$1.84. These units sold would soon be replaced by the DRP units anyway.

I like to have my cake and be able to eat it too. Who doesn't? 

However, what I have described so far might not work for everyone. Why?

Although to receive about 10% more money is attractive, the operation would make sense only to those unit holders whose cash distribution from the REIT amounts to S$1,672.70 or more. 

Doing some simple calculations, with DPU at 3.14c, it would only make sense to investors who hold 54 lots or more of units in the REIT to do this. Any lesser, it won't be viable.





It would also make sense for unit holders who hold more substantial stakes in the REIT to calculate exactly how many of the units they currently hold should be used in accepting DRP units to avoid odd lots which could be quite a pain.

For anyone who is thinking of accepting DRP units, remember that the closing date is 23 May 2013.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Bumper distribution.
2. Made and still making money from S-REITs.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Making money.

Value for money holiday ideas!

The Vesak Day long weekend is coming up and so is the June school holiday. If you are wondering where you could go for a short vacation, check out these fantastic offers:

"Life's A Beach" Phuket: 3D2N Free & Easy Stay at 5-Star Cape Panwa Hotel (Private Beach Front) – Includes 2-Way Flight on SilkAir + 2-Way Airport Transfer + Daily Breakfast + Half-Day Coral Island Tour (Min 2 Pax) @ S$ 299.00 each.

Hong Kong: 3D2N Free & Easy Stay at Kimberley Hotel – Includes 2-Way Air Ticket by Tiger Airways + 2-Way Airport Transfer + Half-Day City Tour (Min 2 Pax; 4D3N Option with Half-Day City Tour & Disneyland Admission Available) @ S$ 248.00 each.

Shopping! Bangkok: 4D3N Stay at P2 Boutique Hotel – Includes Return Ticket by Singapore Airlines + Airport Transfer + Daily Buffet Breakfast + City Tour + In-Room Wi-Fi (Min 2 Pax; Limited Voucher Only) @ S$ 188.00 each.

These and more amazing offers are available at: Discounts

China Minzhong: Good results produced long black candle!

Share price of China Minzhong opened higher at $1.11 and touched $1.12 today before closing much lower at the end of the day at $1.025.

Why has Mr. Market turned bearish on China Minzhong? Did the company report dismal results? No, on the contrary, results although not stellar are pretty encouraging.

China Minzhong actually saw a 5.9% increase in net profit to RMB 255 m for 3Q FY2013. This was on the back of higher revenue which increased by 27.7% to RMB 962.2 m.

Both cultivated and processed vegetables segments did well. Driven by growing domestic demand, the former's revenue improved 36%, year on year, while, driven by export demand, the latter's revenue improved 22%. Revenue from other processed products improved some 51.5%, reflecting strong demand for China Minzhong's branded products which include beverages.

What do all these tell me? The business is growing rather nicely. Then, why is Mr. Market selling down the stock? I have no idea and it really doesn't bother me. What matters is what I am going to do and I am definitely not selling.

With lowering share price, valuation is becoming cheaper. Do I want to sell something cheap? Or would I rather buy something cheap?

Technically, however, a long black candle, an engulfing one in this case, no less, is very bearish. We could see share price declining even more as I have little doubt that this could have brought out the shortists amongst us.

It would, therefore, not surprise me if the recent low of 96.5c should be retested if the gap covers at $1.005. Immediate support is provided by the 20d MA at $1.025.

Of course, we don't want to catch a falling knife. Even if we believe that fundamentals are good, to wait and see could be a better thing to do now. What am I waiting to see?

See if price should retest 96.5c. See if volume dries up as price goes lower. See if the momentum oscillators form higher lows especially if price should form a lower low.

Cheap could get cheaper and I am sure everyone likes to buy a good stock cheaper. However, there is nothing wrong with buying cheap and buying again even cheaper later on (or is there)?

See China Minzhong's 3Q FY2013 results: here.

You might also be interested in these blog posts:
1. China Minzhong: Bought more at $1.025.
2. How to tell if a company is a potential takeover target?
3. Teach yourself fundamental and technical analysis.

Yongnam: Partial divestment at 33.5c.

Building on my observation that Yongnam's stock price seems to move in blocks of 1.5c, I have been putting in overnight sell orders at 34c for a few sessions. These sell orders did not manage to get filled even as the stock touched 34c in recent sessions.

With CMF forming lower highs, we have to think that smart money has grown less enthusiastic about the stock even as the recent high of 34c was repeatedly tested as resistance. So, I made a decision to partially divest at one bid lower than 34c today.

This batch of shares was purchased in February 2012 at 24.5c a share. So, the result is a capital gain of 36.73%. Of course, I also received 2 rounds of dividends of 1c per share in the same period. Total ROI is 44.89% over a 15 months period. Not too bad.

Yongnam's stock is trending up and the channel is clear to see. It is currently testing the resistance of the channel. There is a chance it could break out of resistance but with volume anaemic, the chance is slim. There is also a chance it could pull back to test support provided by the rising 20d MA or even the support of the rising channel.

Technically, it seems more prudent to lighten my long position in Yongnam and to wait for a pull back before loading up again.

Related post:
Yongnam: Partial divestment at 31c.

Happy Mothers' Day!

Today, my family had a very happy time together having lunch.

For dessert, my sister cut up some very sweet papaya and mango. She also baked a beautiful cake.

To all readers who are mothers,

HAPPY MOTHERS' DAY!

You ladies deserve it!