June holidays go where? Bangkok?

Some of us book holidays way in advance to get better prices. Well, if you did not do this and if you are thinking of an impromptu trip this month, you can still get very good deals!

4D3N Free & Easy Stay at FX Furama Makkasan Hotel, Bangkok - Includes Return Flight + 2-Way Airport Transfer. $168.00.

3D2N Free & Easy Stay at 5-Star Amari Watergate – Includes 2-Way Air Ticket by Tiger Airways + 2-Way Airport Transfer . S$ 277.00

Go on a trip with your family and enjoy Bangkok! Where to find such good deals?

Follow this link to enjoy: Discounts!

Related post:
Value for money holiday ideas!

AK71 bought healthy lunch!

Yes, I didn't just have a healthy lunch, I "bought" a healthy lunch.

For those who say I am not helping the economy by bringing my own food to work everyday, today, I did a good thing for the economy! I bought lunch from the canteen!

Brown rice with a big piece of tofu and lots of green chilli.

Brown rice is a good source of vitamin B. It is high in fibre and has low glycaemic index.  Tofu is a good source of protein without the cholesterol. Green chilli is good because it is, er, free!

Cost: $2.20

Related post:
Having an extra $1,200 a year!

Polish your own car and save money.

For those of us who drive, it is quite common to see those kiosks in car parks which offer to wash and polish our cars for $40 or so. Then, if we become "members", we get a member price ($28?) and this would involve signing up for a "package" which requires us to pay in advance for a few sessions.

I have always wanted to try these and approached one kiosk a couple of weeks ago. The old uncle manning the kiosk put me off with his attitude. Business was very good, I guess.

Anyway, after almost 3 years, the bonnet of my red colour car was looking washed out. Seriously, it puzzles me why the bonnet was the only part of the car that looked like it was dying. The rest of the car, after a good wash, would still look pretty good.

Yesterday, when I went shopping with my sister, I decided to buy a bottle of car polish. I didn't want those heavy wax type which I have used before for my previous cars. Those really worked up a sweat. I saw on TV that they have those spray on ones. Spray, spread and buff. Looks easy. Cost: S$12.00 only.

I went home, washed the bonnet and proceeded to spray, spread and buff. Since it was the first polish in almost 3 years, I did it twice over and when I was done, I was perspiring. Good work out!

The car looks better now although not showroom condition.

I am sure I still have plenty of polish left in the bottle. Should last a few more years.

So, if you are thinking of giving your car a polish, maybe you could try doing it yourself this weekend. Save money and get a good workout at the same time.

Used car dealers in Singapore: Any recommendations?

I have a very good friend who is thinking of buying a used car. For some reason, he thinks that I would know something about buying used cars. I think it is because I am such a frugal person.

Unfortunately, when it comes to cars, my preference has always been to buy new. I know. I am terrible in this department.

Anyway, this is a call for help. Please share any recommendations or warnings which you might have about used car dealers here in Singapore.

I guess this could also be a resource for readers who might be looking to buy a used car in the near future too. So, although it has nothing to do with investments and with being financially prudent, here goes my cry: HELP!

一百万 : $1,000,000!

Since I am in the mood, here is another Hokkien song. This one has English subtitles:



"I will buy a car, a house, a shop to collect rent, lead a carefree life, walking the dog!"

Related post:
Be happy!

欢喜就好 - Be happy! (UPDATED.)

This is a song I have always enjoyed.

Apologies to readers who do not understand Hokkien or could not read Chinese.






To those who understand, I hope this brightens up your day. :)

On any issue, there will always be different opinions out there.

On any policy, some will say it is good and some will say it is bad.

It is important to remember that opinions are not facts. 





We would do well to search out the facts and not be swayed by opinions.

AK anyhow talking to himself as usual.

Be happy!





Related posts:
1. A simple concept.
2. Happiness in 2012.

Where did I go wrong? Reply from AK71.

Hi JB,

Thanks for taking the time to write everything in such great detail. I will have to tell you that I am not qualified to give advice or guidance. I can only share my opinions.

Regarding "high could go higher" and "cut loss", these are things we hear people who trade the market using TA might say. They are not wrong but if we choose to learn the techniques of any school, we must learn them well.

I am not well versed in this school but I know that what the school teaches has worked for many people. Just have to follow the rules. For one thing, a stop loss is probably activated when prices fall 10% and not 50%. So, I guess you maybe didn't have enough practice and you didn't master the techniques. Perhaps, you did not have the discipline to follow the methods taught by this school.

As for China Taisun, it is easy to simply generalise S-Chips as untrustworthy and to avoid them at all cost. Indeed, that is the easiest approach to S-Chips. If we cannot trust what they show us in their books, then, how do we do any FA on them?

However, I am not saying that all S-Chips are bad and I have invested in some as well with good results. What I have done that is crucial in my S-Chip investments is that I limit their size. Combined, they are never bigger than 10% of my entire portfolio.

FA is important but it is also equally important not to put all our eggs in one basket. Things could go wrong even in the best companies. Even blue chip companies are not invincible. Think Chartered Semicon. I believe that if your exposure to China Taisun had been smaller, it might have been less traumatising for you.

You might actually have thought of the things I have shared here. Nothing mystical. Just a bit of common sense. :)

All of us are made differently. Some of us have the temperament to be traders and some to be investors. So, we must know ourselves.

As for FA, learn from an expert. Go to my blog's right sidebar and you will find a section labelled "Food for Thought". There are many good options but you might want to zoom in on "5 rules for successful stock investing" for starters. :)

Read JB's letter to me: here.

Related posts:
1. What should I do? A letter from a 64 year old retiree.
2. 5 rules for successful stock investing.

Where did I go wrong? A letter from a reader.

Hi AK,

This is JB here. I hope I am not too much to ask for your guidance and pointers. In terms of TA and FA , I am far from you and hope you can 'unknot' some of the questions I have in my mind for the last few years.
 

A little background of my stock investment journey.

 

 

I started off as an ignorant stock investor or so call punters in 2006 with some motivation from a friend that Mr market  is like Fortune God who gave out money every other days. In hindsight , it was the crazy euphoric market then. Subsequently, I attended a course that taught us about trend is your friend and when stock break resistance is a good sign. Buy high, sell higher. And when market drop, must cut loss. Again, I only cut after the stock has plunged like 50%. :(

 

 

Of course, this whole episode ended sadly with losses that pain me till today.

But I am not a gambler, I know I have to learn so i went back to books to learn. After reading numerous books, and looking at charts, I realised there were so much to learn about Mr Market than just the 2 day course. The course is just a tip of the ice berg. (felt so cheated)

Nevertheless, I learnt about FA and TA. First to use FA to choose the company to invest , then use TA to enter. That started part 2 of my stock investment journey in 2009. Looking back, I guess most stocks you buy then can make money if hold till today.

 

 

But sometime in nov2010, instead of diversifying into a few blue stocks, I thought if I can do some due diligence in FA, I can channel all funds and buy a good stock that is cheaper and hold. After some research then, I found this company China Taisan.

 

 

FA China Taisan in Nov 2010:

1) Continuous growth for the last 3years. with QoQ 10-25%. EPS also grow. P/E4 or less ,  dividend 2%

2) Textile industry start to rebound with asian games in guangzhou in the pipeline

3) Just had TDR listings , alot of cash

4) Managment buy in and company share buy back.

5) broker AM fraser indicated TP25cents

6) Singapore adviser to management- DR Felix Ong (who was the boss of Enporis )

 

 

I bought alot at 0.195 and continue to average down to 0.17 till the scandal for China Gaoxian happened. It affected the general sentiments.

Attended AGM meeting in April2011. They assured us company will be profitable for the year amid unforseen circumstances.

 

But the share got shot down further until i got to admit defeat that perhaps I have spotted the wrong one. Hence, I sold off at 0.10. I have loss money and my confidence too.

 

 

Even until today, given the same circumstances, I always ask myself what would  I do differently? Or are there some areas I need to improve myself.

 

From the checklists that I have mentioned above, Ak, are you able to help me identify where I go wrong?

 

 

Your insights are greatly appreciated.

Thank you.

Await your reply.

Warm regards,

JB

The next blog post will be my reply to JB: read it here.

Be cautious while climbing the S-REIT tree.

In the last few years, I have stayed positive on S-REITs and reaped the benefits. In a blog post just a few months ago, I said that I was no longer as positive about S-REITs but I had not turned negative on them either. 

Instead, I was quite simply cautious about S-REITs as investments for income. See: Never lose money in real estate or REITs?

To recapt, at that time, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was trading at $1.46 a unit and Sabana REIT was trading at $1.12 a unit. Fundamentally, if nothing has changed in the businesses of these REITs from then to now, if I was cautious then, I would still be cautious now. 

This is why I have not added to my long positions even as prices retreated from the highs of $1.88 for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and $1.385 for Sabana REIT.

I am still invested in the REITs because I would be hard pressed to find alternative investments that would give me the returns that they do. This reflects my thinking that in the shorter run, these REITs are still good investments for income.

However, there is no doubt in my mind that, just as the REITs enjoyed the good fortune of the real estate sector in recent years, they will also suffer the downturn that is sure to come. So, to add to my already sizeable investments in these REITs is not a good idea.

I revealed in my year end report for 2012 that I had started moving resources away from REITs into what I felt are undervalued stocks. I think regular readers know which few stocks I have been blogging about. 

Moving house is never fun and the transition I am making is also not fun because it means giving up on something that is more immediately satisfying (i.e. certain distribution income) for something that is less so (i.e. possible capital gains).

Nonetheless, this has been my plan for many months now and I am staying the course. While I do this, the dependable and regular income from S-REITs is a constant source of comfort. This income, however, cannot be relied upon indefinitely as the still benign conditions are showing signs of change.

Having said this, in the last few trading sessions, as the unit prices of S-REITs declined rapidly and in large magnitudes, short sellers had a ball of a time. Shorts will have to be covered and the decline in unit prices will come to a halt and rebounds are to be expected. 

So, it could provide trading opportunities for long only investors.

In all that we do, stay pragmatic and do not be overly optimistic or pessimistic. We want to continue loving something only if it is still worth the loving and keep in mind that money should go to where it is treated best.

With the spectre of rising interest rates as the U.S. housing market and economy recover, we should naturally be concerned about interest rates in Singapore because we know what higher interest rates will mean for REITs. 

So, even as we stay invested in S-REITs, think about how we should not throw caution to the winds.

S-REITs are no longer the low hanging fruits they once were and if we are not careful, we could end up with some pretty expensive buys and the recent price declines probably caught quite a few unwary investors. 

To expand on the analogy of low hanging fruits, we do not want to be stuck high up in a tree with no way of coming down.

Related posts:
1. Is this the start of a bear market? What to do?
2. 2012 full year passive income from S-REITs.
3. Do not love unless it is worth the loving.

Barclays tips accumulating S-REITs on dips
Friday, 31 May 2013

© 2013 - The Edge Singapore

Increasing interest rates will bring prices down to earth (Don't think and grow rich!).

UPDATED (JULY 2018):






"Interest rates are like gravity in valuations. If interest rates are nothing, values can be almost infinite. If interest rates are extremely high, that is a great gravitational pull on values and we had that in the early 1980s." Warren Buffett
-----------
I read the opening paragraphs of the following article and got rapid heart palpitations:

"Boomers lost a significant chunk of their retirement nest eggs in the recession, but it was members of Generation X who were really hit the hardest, according to a report released Thursday.

"If they don't start paying off debt and saving more, Gen Xers (those between the ages of 38 and 47) and younger Boomers (those in their late 40s to mid-50s) are on track to retire financially worse off than the generations before them..."

..




I am a Gen Xer!

Reading on, I realised the author was referring to Americans. 

Whew! That is a relief!

However, what was described in the article could happen to Singaporeans too. 

Don't be too complacent. 

Things look rosy here now but it wasn't too long ago when they weren't.





I know friends who think that Singapore's economy will continue to boom and investing in real estate here is a no brainer as prices will only continue to go up. 

Well, I am not saying that they are definitely wrong but it would be prudent for them to contemplate the possible downside.

Anyway, to grow rich, what can we learn from the American experience? 

Don't think!

Yes, don't think of 3 things. 





Constantly remind ourselves:

1. Don't think that cheap money is here to stay.

Gen Xers were also plagued by significantly higher debt levels, including mortgages, auto loans, credit card and student loan debt -- much of which was accumulated in the years leading up to the recession.





2. Don't think that the value of real estate will only go up.

And while only two-thirds of Gen Xers owned homes in 2010, those who did saw their median home equity plummet by 27% during the past three years.





3. Don't think of ever stopping to save and invest for our retirement.

By the end of the recession, Gen X held investments, retirement plans and savings with a median value of just $14,500, down from $19,382 in 2007.... Including Social Security benefits, Gen Xers are projected to have enough money in retirement to replace only half of their annual pre-retirement earnings.





In our personal finances, if we save more, invest wisely and have less debt, we cannot go very wrong.


Read full article: here.




Related posts:
1. From rich to broke?
2. Slaving to stay in a condominium.
3. To be a happy peasant.
4. Millionaire or not, plan for retirement.
5. Young working Singaporeans, you are OK! Really?