Old Chang Kee H2 profit jumps 52.6%! Buy now?

For readers who who are not subscribed to my YouTube channel or who simply prefer reading blogs to watching videos, this is the transcript of another recent video I produced.
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I first invested in Old Chang Kee in 2011.

At the time, I said that Old Chang Kee's food kiosks were ubiquitous and always seemed to be doing good business.

I also thought that the business was relatively recession proof.

It was very much like property developers selling shoe box apartments.

The smaller monetary quantum makes them more affordable.

I did not think that, in a recession, we would see people cutting back on their favourite curry puffs, sotong sticks or yam cakes in a big way.

Old Chang Kee could increase their prices by 10 cents per item and it would not feel like much to the consumers.

However, it would improve their top line and bottom line immensely in percentage terms.

Think of a 10 cents increase on something that costs $1.

That's a 10% increase and definitely not something to sneeze at.



I also liked that Old Chang Kee paid regular dividends and would look at it from time to time.

Some readers like to ask me if I think Old Chang Kee would be worth investing in these days.

Of course, I would side step such questions.

I would tell them that when Old Chang Kee was trading at 38 cents per share in 2011, I found it too expensive.

I only bought some at 26 cents a share.

Based on a 2 cents dividend per share, that is a dividend yield of almost 7.7% on cost.

Since I sold half of my investment at 52 cents a share, my current investment is also free of cost.

I am getting free money every year or, as I like to say, free curry puffs.



Back in 2011 when I invested in Old Chang Kee at 26 cents a share, it was trading at a PE ratio of slightly more than 12 times.

Its gross profit improved 11.6% while net profit improved 25.9%.

In the latest report, Old Chang Kee reported that H2 profit increased 52.6% on higher sales.

Looks like my free curry puffs are secure this year.

So, should we invest in Old Chang Kee today?



If I am not mistaken, PE ratio for Old Chang Kee is closer to 16 times today.

That seems pretty expensive to me.

Also, Old Chang Kee's shares are thinly traded and it is rather risky to put in overnight buy orders.

If I should be interested in buying, it would be a good idea to look daily to see if anyone might be selling at a price and volume which make buying worthwhile to me.

If AK can talk to himself, so can you!

Reference: 

OLD CHANG KEE: Bought at 26c.

Old Chang Kee recorded a big loss in Q4.

I received a small handful of messages regarding Old Chang Kee's latest results and this is a quick blog about the matter.

Old Chang Kee is a fantastic cash flow generating machine and it remains one of my better although smaller investments. I have no intention to let go of my investment because nothing has changed.

Of course, when I saw the article in The Business Times declaring a huge loss for Old Chang Kee in Q4, I took notice. I spent one minute looking at the financial statement and decided that all is well.

One minute? Yes, only one minute.

I just looked at the income statement to see what has changed. Noticing a spike in expenses, especially other expenses, I scrolled down to find the reasons for the spike.

What I was looking for was whether the spike was going to be material and whether it was going to be enduring in nature. Some of the increase in expenses will continue to be challenging. Labour cost. Rental cost. You get the idea.

However, most of the increase in expenses comes from a revaluation loss which is a non cash item. Non cash item does not affect cash flow. So, unruffled, I went back to gaming.

To be investors, we should pick up some basic knowledge about accounting. Leave the more complicated stuff to the professionals but we should have some basic knowledge.

Financial statement:
http://oldchangkee.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20170529_174958_5ML_AYW9SB1XWVC26BOD.1.pdf

Related posts:
1. Income Statement.
2. Recommended books.

When can gambling make more than investing? (Ten Experts On When The Next Recession May Hit. Added on 20 August 2018.)

Reader:
hello AK, just curious and wanting to understand further your thought process on HLS. 

Would knowing about the bumper dividend have changed your decision? 

I assume the announcement wasn't made yet when you sold.



AK:
Alamak. This is like asking me if I can see the future...

Not a meaningful question 😉





Reader:
hahahaha clearly I didn't give a good illustration
put it another way, how would a bumper dividend + increase in price of a stock influence your decision whether to hold/sell/whatever? 

Do you consider how long it takes under normal circumstances for yearly dividends to cover the bumper dividend? 

(eg 4 years of dividends for HLS assuming $0.025 per share, to account for $0.100 bumper dividend)






AK:
it is about what we feel is a fair price to pay... 

some feel that they want to get into HLS even at 60+c and to get the special dividend... I don't think it is a good idea... 

I think 52c was a fairly good exit price... there is no accounting for prices.

If people who buy from me make some money, good for them. I try not to overthink.





I am still holding on to 50% of my original investment in HLS. 

It has become free of cost and I see myself holding on to this investment for many more years to come. 

This is just like my investment in OCK which also became free of cost when I sold half of my investment after its share price doubled a few years ago.

I won't lose sleep over the fact that their share prices went higher after I sold half of my investment. 

I made good money and will probably continue to make money from these investments. 

To me, that is good enough.





If I had a working crystal ball and could see the future accurately, I would not be an investor. 

I would be a full time TOTO gambler. ;)

Anyway, to sleep better at night, we won't be wrong to avoid the phrase:

"If only I had known."

It has no practical purpose.
--------------------------------
Ten Experts On When The Next Recession May Hit, 20 August 2018.






Related posts:
1. Hock Lian Seng returns 100% and more.
2. Breadtalk, Old Chang Kee and QAF.

Breadtalk, Old Chang Kee and QAF Limited.

I avoided buying Breadtalk's stock for a long time, probably for as long as I avoided buying their bread and I definitely have never bought their "fresh" soya bean milk before. All so expensive.

Yes, I know. AK is very giamsiap. Terrible!





A very high PE ratio and gearing makes the stock unpalatable. 

To make it even less attractive, the dividend is peanuts. 

Give shareholders only enough money to buy some bread, maybe.

However, I revealed that I nibbled at Breadtalk on price weakness during the last "Evening with AK and friends". Why har?





Reader:
Sir, there is one thing that puzzled me. You mentioned that you bought Breadtalk, but this seems contrary to certain principles which you always talk about. 

For example, the stock doesn't seem cheap, seeing that the PE of 44 is near its 5-year high. 

Second, the stock doesn't give very high dividends (you already explained this point). 

It is the first point that puzzles me, since you have always talked about buying an asset when it is cheap. How come this time it is different leh?





Assi AK:
If cash flow from ops is strong and CAPEX reduces, earnings will improve.

BT has strong CF... CAPEX needs to come down and if/when it does, earnings will go up and PER will improve. 

They could pay better dividend then. 

Not for the pure income investor.

Tsk, tsk...

Not for the purist income investor, to be sure, it is a smallish long position for me.

Consistent with my philosophy (remember "the pyramid") and to put things in perspective, it accounts for less than 1% of my portfolio.

Related posts:
1. Old Chang Kee versus Breadtalk
(Why AK prefers OCK to Breadtalk?)
2. QAF Limited.
(If you like bread, QAF is yummier!)
3. Bought cheaper bread on BREXIT!
(AK bought more at $1.03 a share.)

Trading around core positions for extra money.

Some might remember me talking about how I was trading stocks a bit more in the past. I also talked about how it is possible to trade around our core investments for income here and there.

If we are good at it, we could make some extra money from trading and yet retain a portion of our investments for regular income.



I don't trade stocks as much these days because it entails more work. It isn't just about buying stocks and holding them for dividends. We have to look at charts and decide when to sell and, of course, hope that prices might come down again so that we could buy.

However, sometimes, I just feel like doing a bit of trading and one example in the last two weeks was ST Engineering. I partially divested at $3.35 a share at the end of October with the intention to buy again if its stock price should decline meaningfully.

I decided to sell at $3.35 because that was where the mildly declining 200d MA was approximating back then. 

As ST Engineering's stock price declined over a few days, I resisted the urge to buy as connecting the lowest and second lowest price points gave me a trend line which suggests that there is probably going to be stronger support at $2.98 thereabouts which happens to be where the 123.6% Fibo retracement line is also located.

My BUY order at $2.98 today was filled.

Of course, it does not mean that the stock price will not go lower from here. 

Technical analysis simply shows us where the supports are. It doesn't say if the supports will hold. Now, if the support should break, we might see $2.88 tested next. I could buy more then.

Now, what if the stock price did not decline but went higher instead? 

Trading around a core position means that we still have a core investment retained for income generation.

So, some might remember that the mistake I made with ARA a few years ago was not retaining a core position whereas I sold only half of my investment in Old Chang Kee and retained half for income, for example.

So, when employing such a strategy, it is important to buy into stocks which we would be quite happy to hold because of the regular income we will receive. If the opportunity for a trade should present itself, sell a portion of our investment and retain a core position.

If prices go up, we are happy. If prices go down, we are happy too.

I don't think anyone would be unhappy with such a situation or am I mistaken?

Related posts:
1. Have my curry puff and eat it too!
2. ARA: Re-initiating a long position.
3. ST Engineering: Mystical art.

Goh Eng Yeow's anguish over his paper losses etc.

AK is an accredited kay poh and is always looking around. 

If we train ourselves to be more observant and to be more aware of our environment, we might learn something or find something which might benefit us now or in the future (either by participating or avoiding). As investors, it could be a good idea to be a kay poh.

Today, I visited a mall that I have a stake in through my investment in a listed company. I saw a good crowd in the late morning and that made me happy. Did I hear SPH?

I bought myself a curry puff at an Old Chang Kee kiosk and I had to queue. A lady in front of me bought all the fried chicken wings available despite a recent price increase of 10c per wing. I had to wait quite a while for my turn but I was happy.

I went to a bank to place a fixed deposit and I saw that they had an air purifier. So, I chose the seat that was the closest to the machine while waiting to be served. A bit noisier but the air was probably better. 

Alamak, AK is so kiasu and kiasi. Yah lor. Regular readers know that I have two air purifiers at home and that they are on almost 24 hours a day. It is always good to be prepared. Prevention is better than cure, isn't it?

This leads me to another idea about how we should always be prepared, whether we are investors or not. I have a friend who was looking high and low for an air purifier when the haze was at its worst recently. 

Despite my advice a few years ago that he should get an air purifier for his home, my friend didn't get one. He said the haze wasn't that bad. This time round, his parents developed respiratory issues due to the haze.

As investors, we probably get the best deals when the market is not interested. When everyone is interested in buying a stock, it is hard to get a good deal. Well, when everyone was interested in getting an air purifier, it became harder to get our hands on one. Same, same but different.

So, since the haze is an annual event, why not be prepared for it? If only price movement in the stock market is just as predictable.

As investors, we want to be prepared too. We want to make sure we have a war chest ready and that we have a shopping list ready. We don't know if a crash is going to happen but if it should happen, we should know what to do and make fast decisions. 

We must be prepared to seize opportunities or be prepared to lose out on opportunities.

While waiting for my turn at the bank, I read an article by Goh Eng Yeow in the papers and I would like to highlight these few paragraphs:

As investors for income, if we have invested in good companies, even badly timed entries should eventually turn out well. 

The fluctuations in prices should not affect us much if we have been eating bread with ink slowly (see related post no. 3).

So, how's your Sunday? 

Told you AK is kaypoh. ;p

Related posts:
1. Protect ourselves from the haze.
2. Tea with Solace: Common sense investing.
3. How to have peace of mind as investors?
4. Feeling depressed about paper losses?

Tea with Solace: A review of Dividend Machines.

The following is a voluntary review by a guest blogger, Solace, who signed up for the income investing course, Dividend Machines.

Solace says:

Disclaimer : I am not paid or given free access to the course materials to do this review. Solace has paid $XXX USD like everybody else to take a look at the course content. These are my personal views and readers should make their decision on whether the online course is value for money.

The online course has 4 Modules:

- Personal Finance (Covers the mindset, psychology and own personal financial situation.

- Dividend Machines (Covers 8 checklists/steps in screening for dividends stock)

- REITs (All about REITs, business, valuation, financial, management etc)

- Portfolio Management

In addition, there are also:

1. Video lessons

Where they do in depth case studies and how to screen for stocks based on their methodology.

Video Lessons will commence from 25 March 2015, Wednesday onwards.

2. Q & A session

You can post your question in this segment. The Trainers have been rather prompt in answering your queries. All questions are usually answered within 24 -48 hours from observation.

Website: Dividend Machines.

I leave it readers to read more about it.

Who is the course suitable for?

In short, this course is excellent for all who are looking for insight and a consistent method to screen for dividend stocks.

This is especially so for beginners who are still trying to find their way. Even for seasoned investors, time to time we might need to defrag all knowledge we have in our mind and this course helps to do that. It helps to streamline our thought process.

While many of the fundamental concepts are not new to me, I still look forward to the case studies where I can exercise my brains to practice analyzing. I am also attracted to the Q&A section where there will be interesting discussion with fellow investors and trainers.

In my interactions with many people who are starting out with investment, I would recommend them to read different kinds of investment books. This has worked extremely well for me. However, there are people who have difficulties digesting the content inside the book and find it hard to apply them. Another group might be overloaded with many schools of thought and do not know which methods work best for them.

This particular group will always wonder: 

"What is the essence of investing? Is there an easy method which I can follow?”

What the Fifth Person has done is basically summarize the key points and presented them in a very clear, easy to understand and easy to follow manner. And there we have it, the very “essence” to dividends investing.

If you can follow the method well and are able to identify a good dividend stock that will serve you well for many years, then, paying a course fee of $XXX USD would well turn out to be a “multibagger investment” for you.

There is still slightly more than a day to sign up for the course and have a workshop session thrown in for free. Please go to the related post below for the link to sign up for the course.

Dividend Machines by The Fifth Person

Related post:
Listen to AK and create your own Dividend Machines.

2014 full year income from non-REITs.

This is the first time I am blogging about my full year income from investments in non-REITs. As my passive income generated from investments in S-REITs has for many years overshadowed income received from non-REITs, it wasn't very meaningful to blog about the latter.



Now that passive income received from S-REITs took a plunge, it has become more essential to talk to myself about what I have done in the non-REIT space which has shored up dividends received this year, making income contributions by non-REITs a more significant part of my total annual income from the stock market.


Before I continue, readers might want to bear in mind that a few of my investments in the non-REIT space have been with me for many years. They are not all new investments, therefore.

Anyway, non-REITs which have contributed to my passive income in 2014 are:

1. Croesus Retail Trust
2. Hock Lian Seng
3. Perennial China Retail Trust *
4. CapitaMalls Asia *
5. NeraTel
6. Wilmar
7. Yongnam
8. APTT
9. ST Engineering
10. SPH
11. QAF
12. Old Chang Kee
13. K-Green Trust *
14. SATS
15. Ascendas Hospitality Trust
16. Singapura Finance

* Sold and will not contribute any income in 2015.

New or old, I have blogged about all the above stocks before. So, if you should be interested in understanding why and when I invested in these stocks, just do a search for them in my blog and you will find the relevant blog posts.

Of these 16 stocks, I increased my long positions or initiated long positions in the last 12 to 15 months in Croesus Retail Trust, Hock Lian Seng, NeraTel, ST Engineering, SPH, SATS, Ascendas Hospitality Trust and Singapura Finance. 

Apart from Singapura Finance, it is quite obvious that I increased or initiated exposure to these stocks because of their relatively attractive dividend yields. I am still an income investor at heart.

I wouldn't say that all the stocks are of the "good to hold forever" variety but it should be obvious to regular readers that I am not averse to selling a stock if I am no longer impressed by its prospects. 

There are many examples which I have blogged about in the past and examples from this year are Perennial China Retail Trust and K-Green Trust in the list shared earlier.

Anyway, the total amount of dividends from non-REITs in 2014 is beefed up mostly by my rather big investment in Croesus Retail Trust which happened when its unit price took a severe beating shortly after its IPO. 

The relatively large increases to my investments in SPH and NeraTel also helped.

Income from non-REITs in 2014:
S$ 61,752.66

This figure could increase in 2015 despite losing the contributions from Perennial China Retail Trust, CapitaMalls Asia and K-Green Trust. This is because Ascendas Hospitality Trust will make a full year income contribution in 2015.

Of course, it is hard to say at this point in time if I could divest partially or fully some of the investments mentioned here in 2015. 

Indeed, I could also put more money to work in the stock market. So, nothing is set in stone. However, I do know that if valuations should go closer to crisis levels, I will be buying more.

I understand that the stock market could get a bit bumpy but my investments for income should provide me with much comfort and also help to fill my war chest in the meantime.

Related posts:
1. 2014 full year income from S-REITs.
2. AK went shopping in the (stock) market.
3. Be comfortable with being invested.
4. Mystical art of wealth accumulation.
5. Portfolio review: Unexpectedly eventful.
"... my decision to increase my level of investment in SPH and NeraTel last year so that my overall portfolio is less reliant on S-REITs for passive income was pre-emptive. Enlarging investments in Hock Lian Seng and Croesus Retail Trust earlier this year has also helped to reduce reliance on S-REITs for passive income."

OCBC and CapitaMalls: Providing value for money deals.

At the sharing session with Sean Seah and friends, there was plenty of food. It was like a pot luck session and I saw a few boxes from Polar. They are famous for their puff pastries and Swiss rolls, I believe. Their curry puffs cost $1.80 each and I always thought they were quite expensive. So, until quite recently, I never did buy Polar curry puffs.

Wah! AK recently bought atas curry puffs?

Well, I got them for $1.00 each and that was the first thing I said yesterday to the group. Yes, terrible. I totally forgot that initial impression is very important and they probably thought, "What a cheapskate..." Of course, I went on to say how they could also get $1.00 curry puffs from Polar, oblivious to what they might be thinking.

Actually, it is all thanks to the OCBC Frank VISA card that I have now. To get the special deal, I use the NETS Flashpay function. We will also need the NETS Flashpay Savers app which is free to download. The app lists many special deals and one of them is from Polar.

Each time, we are allowed to buy up to a maximum of 4 curry puffs at $1.00 each and pay with NETS Flashpay. A discount of almost 45%! That is a pretty good deal!

So, ever a sucker for great deals, I tried their curry puffs. Not bad but, honestly, I still prefer Old Chang Kee's curry puffs which are cheaper, heartier and tastier.

What? You think I am saying this just because I am an Old Chang Kee shareholder?

Aiyoh, terrible. How could you think like that?

Anyway, I am very sure there will be comments after this to suggest curry puffs which are better than Old Chang Kee's and I promise not to delete them as long as they are not advertisements. Nice AK.

Then, to augment the impression participants might have that AK is a cheapskate, I told them about how I admire CapitaMall Trust's management very much and how I think they are doing a good job of driving shoppers to their malls. How does this show I am a cheapskate?

I revealed how I am a CapitaMalls credit card holder and also a CapitaStar member. For a whole month, I get free parking in all their malls any day of the week for 3 hours per visit per mall when I have $1,200 worth of spending using the credit card. The spending doesn't have to be money spent in their malls too. It could be payment of bills at the AXS machines etc.

Assuming that we visit their malls 10 times a month, we could easily save $30 in parking fees. That is 2.5% of $1,200. My sister shares my car and I also go out with my mom once every few days just to spend quality time together and do a bit of grocery shopping. We make sure we visit a CapitaMall when we go out and not a competitor's mall. When I meet up with friends on weekends, I always suggest meeting in a CapitaMall. Sneaky!

Anyway, there is another reason why I like CapitaMalls. Getting discounted shopping vouchers!

Once a year, they will have this special deal for members to buy $300 worth of vouchers and get another $30 for free! I bought plenty last year and I am buying again this year. Everyday, for a limited time, each member is allowed one purchase per mall. The purchase of vouchers will count towards that $1,200 spending to get free parking too. Nice.

We use the vouchers mostly when we shop in NTUC Fairprice supermarkets in CapitaMalls but they are accepted in most of the shops, really. So, it is like getting a 9.1% discount on our groceries, on top of getting Link Points (about 1.3% rebate) and NTUC shareholder rebate of 4%. When I go shopping with my mom on Tuesdays, we get additional 2% discount for senior citizens too.

Some money, we have to spend. If we can save some money in the process, why not?

Related post:
1. CapitaMall Trust: Buy the retail bond or the REIT?
2. Save $: Frank Card, Signature Card & Dividend Card.
3. Supporting my businesses and getting paid in the process.

Old Chang Kee: Curry Times.

Talented OCK supporter! LOL!
I have always wanted to try the Fried Laksa and the Ngo Hiang in Curry Times by Old Chang Kee. However, each time I walked past the outlet in Westgate, I would see a long queue and I really dislike waiting in queues. So, I would walk away.

Today, I got to Westgate a bit earlier in the evening and the restaurant was only half filled. I didn't have to queue. Lucky!

I didn't have to wait too long for them to serve me my orders. Thumbs up!

Fried Laksa:

Ngo Hiang:

Yummy! I like!

As I was tucking in, a queue formed outside the restaurant. Wow! That improved my appetite! Old Chang Kee is doing well!

Photo taken after I left the restaurant. 
It was about 6.45pm.

You know how we get mints from some restaurants after dinner? At Curry Times, we get some nice old fashioned biscuits. I really like the ones similar in size to 5 cent coins with the little coloured sugar tops. Diners get to help themselves to a cupful when they pay at the cashier!

See the big jar of colourful biscuits?
Click on the photo and see if they bring back memories.

I will have to bring my mom next time. I think she will like the Chendol.

Related post:
Old Chang Kee: Lessons from Mr. Han.

Old Chang Kee: Peek-a-boo!

Have you had yours today?

Come, come. Don't be shy.

I think someone just went "bo liao". LOL.

Related post:
Old Chang Kee: Lessons from Mr. Han.

9M 2013 income from S-REITs and more.

Three more months to the end of the year. Lots of things have happened in the first 9 months of the year. I want to zoom in on the investment front and record some of my thoughts.

The strategy to be invested in S-REITs for income is still working. Of course, with the spectre of the Fed cutting back on QE and a possible increase in interest rates in the next 2 or 3 years, Mr. Market has turned cautious on leveraged investments like S-REITs. This is only natural. Unit prices of S-REITs have become more realistic as a result.

When Mr. Market is pessimistic, that is when we are likely to get good deals. As to what is a good deal, I am sure this is rather subjective. Every person would have a different idea of what is an acceptable margin of safety. Every person would have a different perception of a REIT's prospects.

Having built up a relatively large portfolio of S-REITs, I devoted more resources to investing in what I believe are undervalued stocks, something which I continue to do in 2013.

So, essentially, what I have done is to keep what has worked well for me thus far while expanding my investments in certain companies, recognising possibly more difficult times ahead for S-REITs. 

This is an approach that requires more work than simply getting passive income from S-REITs but the time when it was a no-brainer to buy and hold S-REITs probably ended sometime in the second half of 2012.

For 9M 2013, how much did I receive in passive income from S-REITs? 

$92,872.65

Full year 2013 income from S-REITs is most likely going to be lower compared to 2012 because I sold a significant portion of my investment in LMIR earlier this year and also because Saizen REIT distributes income half yearly (i.e. there is no income distribution in December from Saizen REIT).

Also, we might want to bear in mind that, although hedged, the weaker Indonesian Rupiah and Japanese Yen could result in lower income distributions in S$ terms for unit holders of these REITs in the year 2014.

With twice as much industrial space being scheduled for completion in 2014 and 2015 than any single year in the past decade, the possibility of stagnating or even a reduction in income for industrial S-REITs in future cannot be discounted. This is why looking at WALE (Weighted Average Lease Expiry) of industrial S-REITs is more important now.

Although I would have liked nothing better than to sit back and collect passive income regularly from S-REITs, doing very little else, I decided to move out of my comfort zone. For sure, there were bumps along the way but my efforts have generally been rewarding thus far. 

What did I do?

I increased my investments in stocks which are likely to be dependable passive income generators such as SPH and NeraTel. 

I also hold long positions in stocks which I believe would benefit from the Chinese consumption story such as CapitaMalls Asia, PCRT and Wilmar. 

Any dividend from investing in these stocks and any gain from trading would go towards cushioning the possible decline in income from S-REITs in future.

Up to 15 September 2013, the total gain from trading this year amounts to: 

$188,625.13

It was fortuitous the way the China Minzhong saga turned out. It preserved my trading gains and grew it rather significantly at the same time. Apart from my long position in Wilmar, all other investments are in the black. 

So, what is my plan for the future? 

Nothing profound really. 

If prices were to decline much more, I hope I would be brave enough to buy more. If prices were to rise much more, I hope I would remember to sell some.

The grand scheme is to augment and not to replace my passive income portfolio. 

For sure, it doesn't mean that I think S-REITs are going the way of the Dodo. Indeed, they are still good investments for income at the right prices. For me, passive income from S-REITs will still be an important pillar in achieving financial freedom. This is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

Remember, this blog is not meant to instruct but if anyone finds it inspiring, I will be happy enough.

Related posts:
1. 2012 full year income from S-REITs.
2. Never lose money in real estate and S-REITs?
3. Do not love unless it is worth the loving.
4. Motivations and methods in investing.
5. Be cautious climbing the S-REIT tree.
6. Be comfortable with being invested.

Old Chang Kee: Lessons from Mr. Han.

Added on 12 April 2017:

OLD CHANG KEE DI INDONESIA
-----------
I enjoyed an article on Old Chang Kee today in The Business Times.

Mr. Han Keen Juan acquired Old Chang Kee in 1986. He tried blending cultures and introduced croissants but these did not take off. 

Apparently, it was the norm to hold a curry puff and eat it on the go but people preferred to eat French pastry sitting down! It also created some customer confusion as to what Old Chang Kee represented.

To me, Old Chang Kee is the King of Asian finger food in Singapore. Their menu has expanded to include, for example, XL size fishballs which they call "footballs" and you have to trust me when I say they are delicious especially with the special chilli sauce made just for them!

Some of my other favourites are spring roll, yam cake, carrot cake and fried chicken wings (Sedap!). For sure, I cannot go without at least one of their signature curry puffs every once in a while.

The success that is Old Chang Kee today is very much about keeping to a theme that is familiar to Singaporeans. It is about sticking to a formula which has worked well for years.

Similarly, it could be a good idea for us to stick to what we know best when we are investing in the stock market. 

If we were to expand our investment portfolio, it could make sense to look at industries we are familiar with or industries which are related to what we are familiar with. 

If a strategy works well for us and is reliably replicable, why not stick to it?

Mr. Han also ventured into the dining arena by starting a small kiosk that sold authentic Hainanese dishes. It became a hit! He quickly opened another outlet without first ensuring that the kitchens could maintain the quality of the food. Diners were disappointed and the business folded within four months.

Old Chang Kee's mobile kitchen!

This holds a precious lesson for investors at large too. Don't be too hasty to take the plunge. Make sure we have a strong foundation and the necessary resources before we try growing our investments.

If our portfolio size is beyond what is the optimum (and this is probably a subjective notion), we could be increasing the probability of something nasty happening along the way. Shudder at the thought.

Related post:
Old Chang Kee: Almost 70c a share.

Tough times ahead for F&B industry.

The rapid influx of foreign workers up till the last General Election caused strains in our society in many ways and the PAP government learned the hard way that Singaporeans were unhappy.

Singaporeans "dealing with the strain on infrastructure resulting from the influx of foreign workers, had signalled that they were prepared to trade off a bit of growth in return for a reduction in immigration.

"Any elected government has to, at the end of the day, take into account and work according to the wishes of the people," Mr Shanmugam, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Law, said.

"... some of the service sectors, like restaurants, are feeling the pinch... "

(Source: The Business Times Weekend, July 6-7, 2013)

There could be pockets of relative strength in the F&B industry in Singapore and I believe Old Chang Kee is one such company.

Companies which run restaurants requiring big floor areas for diners, teams of waiters and waitresses, cooks and washing staff will face stronger headwinds over time.

Related posts:
1. Old Chang Kee: Almost 70c a share.
2. Soup Restaurant: Almost fully divested.

"In the financial year ended March 31, 2013, Tung Lok sunk deeper into the red with a net loss of $3.17 million... "

(Source: Tung Lok plans 2 for 5 rights issue, The Business Times Weekend, July 6-7, 2013)

Old Chang Kee: Almost 70c a share.

On 30 May, I mentioned that Old Chang Kee's shares at 56c a piece were not expensive and that with a PER of 11.29x, I thought Old Chang Kee fairly valued.

Today, Old Chang Kee's shares hit a high of 69c before closing at 67.5c. It is now 20.5% higher than where it was on 30 May and 160% higher than my entry price.

At 69c, PER is 13.9x. This does not sound cheap to me. However, chatting with someone who is vested in Breadtalk recently led me to wonder if I have been too conservative in my valuation of Old Chang Kee's stock.

Breadtalk's full year EPS in 2012 was 4.263c. At 90c a share, its PER is more than 21x! Even though its EPS improved some 14.8% in 1Q 2013, annualised, we could still be looking at a PER of more than 18x. If we were to compare with Breadtalk, Old Chang Kee seems relatively cheap.

Assuming that Old Chang Kee's EPS stagnates, to reach a PER of 18x, its stock would have to trade at 89c per share. Is that going to happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

Related post:
Old Chang Kee: More free curry puffs on the way.

Old Chang Kee: More free curry puffs on the way!

In an interview earlier on in the year, I talked about Old Chang Kee as being a very rewarding investment for me. I also mentioned how a 5c dividend which went XD in January was a pleasant surprise.

Well, Old Chang Kee announced a final dividend of 1.5c for FY2013. This is nice although I will be receiving half of what I would usually receive in absolute amount since I divested half of my investment in the company earlier on in the year.

Amidst rather more difficult business conditions, Old Chang Kee's management has shown a high level of business savvy as they improved production efficiency, closed non-profitable outlets and revised prices last December. As of March 2013, it had a total of 76 outlets in Singapore which is 6 outlets lesser than a year ago.

Net profit improved from $4.51m to $4.98m and EPS improved from 4.75c to 4.96c. These figures are on the back of improved gross profit margin from 60.1% to 61.4%.

What is more impressive is that the $4.51m net profit for the preceding year was based on a 15 months financial year because Old Chang Kee announced a change of its financial year in August 2011.

So, if we were to assume an average net profit of $1.245m per quarter in FY2013, over 5 quarters would give us $6.225m. This means that net profit increased almost 40%, year on year. Impressive!

Business costs are expected to remain high but Old Chang Kee's management have, so far, impressed with their business savvy and with the brand deeply entrenched in Singapore, it is reasonable to expect the company to continue doing well.

At 56c a share, PER is 11.29x. Not cheap but not expensive either. I would say it is fairly valued. What am I going to do now? Wait to receive the dividend and maybe buy some curry puffs tomorrow.

Related posts:
1. Old Chang Kee: Have my curry putt and eat it too.
2. Old Chang Kee: Initiated long position at 26c.
3. Tea with AK71: An audio interview.

Letter from a Brigadier General.

Slightly more than a year ago, I received a letter that had the words "ON GOVERNMENT SERVICE" and our national crest on the envelope. I had palpitations.

Today, it happened again!

This time, I received a letter from BG Tung Yui Fai of the Singapore Armed Forces.

Enclosed with the letter are 8 pieces of $10.00 vouchers which can be used at more than 5,000 outlets in Singapore! They include petrol stations, supermarkets and F&B outlets!

Accepted at Old Chang Kee as well, I guess I will be having free curry puffs for a while. Yummy!

Related posts:
1. AK71 gets recognition from the government.
2. Old Chang Kee: Have my curry puff and eat it too.