How to have peace of mind as an investor?

Having peace of mind will help us to think clearly, not panic and make the best of market opportunities. 

Remember 5 words:

"Eat bread with ink slowly."

Yes, this is in keeping with AK blogging more about food these days but bread with ink? 

Yikes! Has AK gone nuts? 





Hey! Squid ink happens to be a delicacy. 

Don't you know?

Well, some of you might already have guessed it. 

AK is using mnemonics. 

It is something I used to do a lot of as a student to help remember long lists and facts. 

I also taught my students in the past to use mnemonics to help them remember things.

Eat bread with ink?!

OK, before I go off tangent again, what does each word stand for?

The letter "e" in "eat" stands for emergency fund. 

All of us should have an emergency fund. 

During good times, build an emergency fund. 

We do not know when we might need it. 

Having an emergency fund gives me peace of mind during good and bad times.




The letter "b" in "bread" stands for borrowed funds. 

Don't borrow money to invest.  

This does not only mean borrowing from institutions like banks and brokerages. 

It also means borrowing from friends and relatives.




In both "e" and "b", we don't want to be caught in a situation where we might have to liquidate our investments at times not of our own choosing. 

If the money is needed elsewhere or asked to be returned, we might end up liquidating at prices we would not have sold at otherwise.






The letter "w" in "with" stands for war chest. 

We must always have money put aside for opportunities. 

Remember that this is not just cash in our bank accounts but also money in our SRS account and CPF-OA. 

I explained how the CPF-OA money should be the last war chest we use because it earns 2.5% per annum in interest, risk free.






The letter "i" in "ink" doesn't stand for squid ink. 

It stands for income, specifically investing for income. 

I explained how all of us have to have earned income unless we are born with a spoon made of some precious metal in our mouth. 

If we invest for income, we would be able to benefit from a growing stream of dividends (i.e. passive income).




Investing for income is important in providing me with peace of mind because it is:

1. The best form of insurance, self insurance.

2. A fountain of wealth that fills my war chest.

3. A contributor to my improving financial resilience.




Finally, the letter "s" in "slowly". 

It stands for sizing. 

More specifically, position sizing. 

I explained before that if we lose sleep over an investment, then, very possibly, we have too much money in it. 

We might want to whittle the position to a size that will allow us to sleep better at night.




So, do you want to have peace of mind as an investor at any one time? You do?

Then, remember to eat bread with ink slowly.

Related posts:
1. Financial security: 5 points.
2. Making recovery from losses easier.
3. Investing for income and position sizing.

The CPF is a national Ponzi scheme!

"The CPF is the biggest Ponzi scheme in Singapore and it is run by the government!"

Heard of this before?

Now, what actually is a Ponzi scheme?

A fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors. The Ponzi scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors. This scam actually yields the promised returns to earlier investors, as long as there are more new investors. These schemes usually collapse on themselves when the new investments stop. (Source: Investopedia)

An important characteristic of a Ponzi scheme is the almost continuous need for new investments (contributions) from either new or existing investors. 

So, it is unheard of to have a bona fide Ponzi scheme rejecting investments (contributions).

I made a miscalculation last year and because of that I received a letter from the CPF Board recently. 

See for yourself:

So, is the CPF a national Ponzi scheme?

I don't know. You tell me.

UPDATE:
Central Provident Fund (CPF) members will be able to grow their retirement savings further next year as the Government will raise interest rates on account balances, the salary ceiling for contributions and contribution rates for older workers.

An additional 1 per cent interest will be applied to the first $30,000 of CPF savings for those aged 55 and above next year, on top of the existing 1 per cent extra interest on the first $60,000 of savings. 

This means that the first $30,000 in Special, Retirement or Medisave accounts can earn up to 6 per cent interest.

(Source: The Straits Times, 23 Feb 15.)

Related post:
CPF: Something light and something purple.

Rakuten Singapore: Overseas delicacies at a bargain!

This is an advertorial about Rakuten Singapore.

Rakuten is Japan's No. 1 Online Shopping Mall and they are now here in Singapore!

Rakuten offers a unique shopping experience, bringing the best of Japan to us in Singapore. The reward program which lets shoppers get more value for money makes Rakuten even more attractive.

We know how online shopping is growing rapidly in the area of durables but I watched a TV program recently on how Rakuten Singapore collaborates with local food suppliers to bring fresh sea food to consumers who shop online here. Quite fascinating.

So, I took a look:

Pretty amazing!

Well, if you are interested, follow this link and explore their online store:
Discover Both Local And Overseas Delicacies At Up To 55% OFF


Hope you find some good deals for a yummy Chinese New Year feast or just have a feast with your family and friends for no particular reason! Huat ah!

Disclosure: AK will get a 5% commission from your purchases. Ang Bao for AK. ;p

Interest rate on home loan jumped 15.84%!

It was less than a month ago when I shared here in my blog and on my FB wall that because the cost of not paying down my home loan is really quite low, it makes sense to hold off paying down the loan for now. Has this changed?

Unless we do not follow the news, all of us would know that the SIBOR has been rising and in the first "An evening with AK and friends" event, I said that the 3 months SIBOR has risen from 0.3+% to 0.6+% in a matter of weeks. Rusmin Ang from The Fifth Person reminded us that the 3 months SIBOR was, at one time, as high as 3+%.

In a letter from the bank yesterday, I was informed that the interest rate for my home loan has changed from 1.16917% to 1.35435% per annum.

This is a jump of 15.84%!

Oh, the pain!

What does this mean in dollar terms?

If a person has a $500,000 outstanding home loan, he would have about $900 more in interest payment a year. The actual figure would differ depending on the length of the loan, bearing in mind the effect of amortisation.

Now, $900 might not seem like a big deal to some people but it is quite a bit of money to me.


For people who have been complacent and who have been upgrading their lifestyles as their income was upgraded, if they had upgraded to the most expensive property they could afford (for their own consumption) in the last few years, I think receiving a letter like this should be a wake up call for them. They should not just file and forget. Why?


These are people who could possibly have stretched their finances to the max especially if they had rushed to buy before the implementation of the TDSR.

What would I do if I were in their shoes?

I would try to anticipate a much higher interest rate in the next two years and take action. If we believe what CIMB's regional economist, Song Seng Wun, said recently (and I think we would do well to believe him), we should be prepared for the 3 month SIBOR to hit 1% by end of the year and 2% by end of 2016.

For a $500,000 home loan, it would mean an additional financial burden of some $2,900 and $7,900 a year this year and next year, respectively, ignoring the effect of amortisation. $900 more a year in interest expense, people might shrug it off but what about $2,900 to $7,900 more a year? Do I see cold sweat?

What about those who had stretched themselves to the max and had taken a $1 million or $1.2 million home loan, bearing in mind that homes priced at $1.5m and below were more popular amongst upgraders in recent years? How much more would the interest expense be in dollar terms?

I shudder at the thought.

On 17 Jan, I said:

Now, my home loan has an interest rate of about 1.3%. A bit lesser than that, probably, even with the recently higher SIBOR. I think that makes it rather inexpensive and it probably makes sense to hold off paying down the loan for now.

I have put aside enough cash to pay off the loan but it could possibly be used for investment opportunities if there should be a stock market crash. Of course, if interest rates were to shoot through the roof, I would use the cash to pay off the loan.


While waiting, I leave my money in CIMB to receive an interest of 0.8% per annum and some FDs that pay 1.1% to 1.25% per annum. So, effectively, the cost of not paying down my home loan is not that high.

So, I am prepared for an eventually higher interest rate. Am I in the minority? I don't know.

Of course, some might say that we could refinance (if the option is available) and opt for fixed interest rate packages.

However, we have to remember that fixed interest rates are usually for a period of a few years (typically 3) and not for life. It might also be higher than the interest rate of our current home loan in the short term.

Finally, there is usually no option for partial capital repayment for fixed interest rate packages.

Refinancing could be an option for some but we should take a hard look at our finances and see whether there are ways of improving our savings rate either by increasing income or reducing expenses or both in order to cope with the much higher interest expense that is bound to hit us in the very near future.

Increasing our savings rate would also give us the option of paying down our home loans. Yes, partial capital repayments should be seriously considered if interest rates become much higher.

So, if we should have an outstanding home loan of $500,000 and if interest expense is estimated to increase by $7,900 a year by end of 2016, we should be thinking of putting aside (at least) an extra $658 every month now. Get ready now and we won't be caught unprepared when the time comes.

What is at the tip of the pyramid?

Believing that our jobs are forever secure and that we will get salary increments year after year to cope with higher costs are beliefs that come close to being speculative (for most of us).

If we believe that we must not put too much weight on our more speculative positions in our investment portfolio, then, what about the weight we should put on these beliefs?


In summary:

1. Higher interest rates are upon us.
2. Higher interest rates will go higher.
3. High time we take action if we have not done so.

Although highly unlikely, I hope I have succeeded in ending this blog post on a high note.

Related post:
Buy the biggest and most expensive home?

Update (10 Oct 15):
"DBS says it expects the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate to rise from the current 1.13 per cent to 1.22 per cent by the end of this year, and 1.75 per cent in about a year's time."
Source: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/home-owners-should/2180930.html

AK talks to an expert on Investment Linked Policies, ILPs.

I was offered a chance to do a sponsored blog post on ILPs and instead of just the same old newsletter style or a cookie cutter interview, I decided to do it like a talk show.

So, we have AK, the host of the show, and a guest who is an expert in the industry taking questions from callers (who are actually my blog's readers). The questions were put forward by readers on my FB wall recently, in case you are wondering.

Anyway, here goes:

AK: Welcome to the "Accredited Kay Poh Also Can Show". I am AK, an accredited kay poh and your host for the show. With me today is Mr. Brendan Yong who will be doing all the work answering questions related to Investment Linked Policies or ILPs. Welcome to the show, Brendan, and let us start by asking you what are ILPs and how are they different from regular whole life policies, for example?

BY: In the case of regular whole life policies, your premiums (less commissions) for regular whole life (we call participating plans) along with others are collected into a "Life Fund", and the insurer is responsible to invest the premiums wisely,  to produce a return which is shared with the policy holder. Claims are paid out of this common pool in addition to other expenses.

For ILPs, your premium (less commissions, sales charges) buys into unit trusts (therefore the responsibility of investing lies with you). Periodically, insurance charges are deducted to provide the coverage stipulated by your insurance contract, other charges include: policy fees and management fees. Insurance charges rise with age. 

In other words, whole life policy returns are outsourced to the insurer. Insurance claims are deducted from common pool of invested funds.

ILPs investment returns and risk are borne by the consumer. ILP imposes insurance charges, which are deducted by selling units. Claims are paid by insurance company from another pool of Life Fund for ILPs and Term.

AK: Thanks for that clear explanation. Recently, when I asked my readers on FB what would they like to know regarding ILPs, I received a long list of questions. So, we would like to pick your brains here. Allen Allen asks "Is it advisable to take on ILP? I am currently having a ILP for 7 years and am considering to surrender it as I don't see it breaking even anytime soon." What would you say to that, Brendan?

BY: The main issue is ILPs are not suitable after age 55, as insurance costs increase exponentially. So if it was implemented thinking it covers life time for death, and critical illness, it is potentially a time bomb. If it's implemented for investment returns, you may be disappointed with the returns due to the high charges and fees. Every situation is unique, we have to compare the option of surrendering vs buy term invest the difference to give a proper recommendation.

AK: Sounds like Allen Allen might have to get in touch with his financial adviser after the show. Next, Spencer would like to know "What will happen once the mortality rate / cost of insuring is higher than investment returns?"

BY: The insurance charges are to be deducted from units by selling them. Imagine you are paying $3,000, after paying 5% charges, the remaining $2,850 is invested into funds. But your insurance charges at age 70 is say $8,000. Then you have to sell $8,000 worth of units to pay for the charges. Provided you have enough units to deduct, you coverage continues, while the accumulated fund depletes. If it depletes to zero, your cover is terminated.

Some agents say the returns will pay for the charges, but seriously, at the older age, you'll have to reduce the risk of the portfolio, settling for a lower return. So there is a high chance that it will start to deplete despite returns, due to the rising insurance charges. The effect will hit you after 55 ...

AK: That is quite a revelation! Older viewers/readers might want to take note! Next, Thomas asks "have u bought an ILP for yourself? If yes, is it a big portion (%) of your investment portfolio? And would u strongly recommend it to your spouse, and also to your parents? If so, did they buy it and what's their objections if they didn't."

BY: No ILPs for me. Not for my spouse, definitely not for parents (anyone above 50 is literally a mis-sell). Buy term invest the rest instead of ILP.

In my ebook, I mention only 2 situations it may still have some merit:

1) Newborn baby or very young kid. The long term plan is to cash in before age 55, making use of lower insurance charges when young.

2) Young working adult with little or no fiscal discipline. Same long term plan.

AK: Some very clear guidelines there as to when ILPs might make sense. Now, Gabriel wonders "if there are any ILPs which have beaten the STI index returns? Or has any ILP beaten the highest unit trust returns?"

BY: ILPs refers to the policy not the fund. So I would suppose the reader means the ILP fund. ILP funds are the same thing as Unit Trusts. There is also no sense talking about ILP funds beating Highest UT returns, as they maybe from different sectors, regions or asset type. There is no sense comparing any fund to STI, if the fund is not bench-marked against STI. A China/India ILP beating STI returns says nothing for the fund.

So allow me to re-phrase the question. Is there any difference between ILP funds and Unit Trusts? Has ILP funds beaten their index?

ILP funds are essentially unit trusts that are subscribed into by insurance policy holders. One advantage of ILP funds is the large pool of "dollar-cost-average" policy holders that will buy into the fund regularly, through good and bad time. This may explain some out-performance vs similar UTs. Let's take for example STI benchmarked funds:

NTUC Singapore equity invests 60%+ into STREETTRACKS STRAITS TIMES INDEX FUND, and manages the remaining portion. See that they just slightly outperformed STI (mainly due to reinvested dividends). Some attribution perhaps to Dollar-Cost-Averaging. 

AXA Fortress A Fund has consistently outperformed STI in fact by a large margin. Some impact may be due to dollar cost averaging, but most of it because of the capable fund manager: First State Investments Singapore. 

Finally Aberdeen Singapore is a pure UT. So AXA ILP outperformed, but NTUC ILP underperformed pure UT. 

Conclusion: Some UTs beat their benchmark, many don't. Some ILPs beat similar UTs with same benchmarks, some don't. At the end of the day, the choice of the fund can make a big difference. The short-coming is that ILPs may be sold and left alone, disregarding crisis or opportunities. It's the same issue with buy and holding UTs. This doesn't work. Even UTs that beat benchmarks need to be monitored for fund manager movement, and market cycles. 

I have many research on this area... working on another ebook... akan datang.

AK: Another e-book? I am sure you will be keeping me in the loop. Next, Lee Jiahui is "interested to know the market players income/revenue distribution/proportion of ILP products vs the traditional products".

BY: Unfortunately, there is no public data about this.

AK: OK, that was a fast one. Next person on the line is Derek Lim and he asks "What is your timeframe in holding a ILP? Is there a maximum age where you would advise against buying a ILP? Do you cutloss or do a fund switch if your ILP is doing badly? Similarly if your funds has done well, how do u lock in your gains? How do u balance between investment and coverage e.g. should I strive for minimum coverage and maximum investment?"

BY: Insurance charges rise exponentially after 55. So my time-frame is to cut at 55 if I'm holding to one (provided you have adequate cover from other policies). Anything above 50 is mis-selling. Any starts of regular premium ILP above age 40 is not cost-effective.

Cut-loss have to benchmark with buy term invest the rest to decide. In general most comparison will lead to the conclusion that BTIR is better. No manner of fund switching will solve the rising insurance charges problem.

AK: "Similarly if your funds has done well, how do u lock in your gains?" 

BY: Same with UTs, if some funds have "done well", you can choose to switch into bonds to lock it in. However you give up any potential upside. You can also switch into funds that have been beaten down severely, and buy them at a low price. This is one of the strategies that I teach investors who have little time to manage their UTs.

How do u balance between investment and coverage e.g. should I strive for minimum coverage and maximum investment?"

If ever I'm forced into an ILP, I will go for Maximum cover, min investment, and terminate before 55. If you are going for investment, forget about ILPs with "some" insurance coverage.

AK: So, I repeat, go for maximum cover, minimum investment and terminate before turning 55. Derek, I hope you are taking down notes. Next, Talen Blackburn Terence asks whether "ILPs are better than buying shares directly? Which are the better ILPs? What percentage of our salary should we invest in ILP? what % of our portfolio should be in ILP?"

BY: ILPs and UTs cannot be compared with direct shares. Totally different issue. To invest in shares, you will need: (1) some time, (2) a reliable method (e.g. Value Investing, GAARP, etc) (3) that works for your psychology (4) and accumulate experience over at least one complete cycle beating the STI index. If stocks work for you, stay with stocks. The only reason why some stock investors work with us, is to access bond funds. If you are not a good stock investor, you can consider UTs.

ILPs are same as UTs. So I rephrase the question: Which are better UTs? Answer: Whatever that's going to make good money for you in the next 5 years. If I had a crystal ball, I'll let you know.

What am I saying? "THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE BEST OR BETTER UT or ILP". You need a strategy to make some money in UTs. 

What percentage of our salary should we invest in ILP? what % of our portfolio should be in ILP?

None preferably, if he's talking about  ILPs.

AK: Brendan, if you manage to get a crystal ball that works, let me know. I only have a bowling ball and it is not very cooperative most of the time. Here is another question from Gabriel, "why are ILP costs so high while the returns are non-guaranteed? Are there any upsides at all for holders of ILP?"

BY: There is no why... That's how they are structured. The only remote upside I see compared to BTIR, is that term has a specific expiry date, ILP doesn't. Example you have a term cover till age 65 thinking you'll not need it when children are all grown up. If you had an ILP instead for the same cover, you can CHOOSE to continue beyond 65. Say you already have an early stage of Cancer, before 65. It might be a good idea to continue coverage ...

Having said that, if you design your insurance portfolio well, you should have some other option to fall back on like a 99-year Critical Illness cover or a Living-type Policy.

AK: That is a good point on how ILPs might be a positive for certain people. OK, The next one is a biggy or several biggies from long time reader, Jimmy Ng. Buckle up or you might fall off your seat. Here comes the first question, "Why are distribution cost & expenses so high that it take a very long time (i.e. over a decade), on projections of guaranteed & non guaranteed, to break even, let alone generate positive returns?"

BY: There is no why... That's how they are structured. Insurers have costs. They calculate that this is how they can still make some profit after giving out commissions.

Instead of asking why, just compare the alternative and make a decision.

(1) Can I afford not to be insured? If Yes, at least have a good hospitalization plan. If you cannot afford not to be insured, but you still don't want any: eat healthily, exercise, hope you don't have bad genes and pray.

(2) If you want to insure adequately, use a competitive term insurance to cover Family Dependency Needs, and a Living or 99-year term to cover Critical Illness. Compare this option with ILP if you must.

AK: Is there any low expense version of ILP ?

BY: Not significantly. Even the cheapest may not compare well with BTIR. Between insurers, ILPs can differ A LOT!

This was from The Straits Times:

AK: How does the insurer split shared costs - like overheads - between the policyholders' and the shareholders' funds? How can a policyholder know if the split is fair?

BY: You might want to visit this site: http://www.moneysense.gov.sg/understanding-financial-products/insurance/types-of-insurance/life-insurance/types-of-life-insurance/participating-policies.aspx

Shareholders can only take a maximum $1 for every $9 distributed to policy-holders, this is regulated.

Other than that it's totally insurer's discretion. It's a free market. If their product is not competitive, they can't get market share.

You have a choice. So, explore the alternatives.

AK: In the Singapore context, can the ILP gives similar or better returns than CPF OA & SA ?

BY: ILPs = UTs. Yes, if the market allows. Yes, it you hang on to it for 20 years. Yes, if you employ a good strategy. No if you choose the wrong fund. No if you are expecting it to do wonders within 3-5 years.

AK: Will it be street smarter to buy a term policy getting the same mortality coverage of ILP and invest the rest into ETF or REITs or AK Investment fund (Jimmy's words, not mine)? My feel is that the returns from these investment could generously help to pay for the term insurance cost, do you agree ?

BY: Yes, generally speaking. Still... shop around. Term insurance rates can differ by 20%.

AK: What determines the Premium Allocation, Insurance Charges, Policy Fee & Funds Bid-Offer Spread ? Are these charges fair to policy holders or could be significantly reduced ?

BY:  Let's not visit the fair issue again... The market will drive charges. One insurer cuts Bid-Offer spread or Premium allocation and comes up with a super competitive product, the rest will have to change soon. The Law of Economics will take care of excessive profits.

AK: What can be done to reduce the premiums & expense payable while increasing the coverage and ROI ?

BY: Nothing. Make a decision: (1) Cut-loss, replace with BTIR or (2) decide to hold and surrender before 55. Increasing Coverage and ROI cannot happen at the same time. It's either one of the other.

AK: Brendan, you have answered all of Jimmy's questions but we are not quite done yet. Just a few more questions from other readers to go. Elvin wants to know "If I suck at money management and am not savvy.. Is the ILP the right product for me? Does the ILP give me a peace of mind in terms of financial protection and is my capital guaranteed while receiving coverage? Are there embedded risks in ILPs?"

BY: If you suck at money management, go and learn. No one will be more responsible about it than you. If you REALLY cannot manage, and have poor fiscal discipline, then maybe you'll be better with ILP off than nothing at all. Risk are the market risks, capital non-guaranteed. If you want some guarantee, buy 99-term or a traditional living plan.

AK: Next, Kenji asks "how do u make money from ilp when u r in a losing position now?and is switching fund the only way?"

BY: If you are talking about a Single Premium ILP, meaning it's not a monthly or yearly premium plan, then SELL the ILP, buy an equivalent UT or in a potentially better one. You'll recover it faster because of the ILP charges.

AK: Jieren Azrael Zheng wants to know if it makes more sense to buy a similar or underlying ETF instead of an ILP?

BY: I think we are talking about single premium again. Yes, UT or ETF is better than ILP.

AK: Clement Wong wants your opinion on his 3 year old ILP. "i bought an ILP 3 years ago without knowing any better. how now brown cow..."

BY: Evaluate vs BTIR. Make a decision. Consult a proper financial planner before doing anything.

AK: Zaw Oo asks "Given your current knowledge, would you encourage anyone to take up ILP as a form of long term investment?"

BY: flat NO.

AK: Very emphatic! GW Samzel says "I own both Golden Regional China Funds and India Equity Fund from Manulife and it seems like my current buy price is always higher than it's sell price (selling a fixed amount monthly as charges for the policy). Even though the chart is slowly going up (it's only been 4 yr since I got the funds), high buy price is forever higher than sell price. Would i really make any gain eventually? Also, how do I evaluate that these 2 recommended funds by my financial planner is really the most suitable fund she could offer for me?"

BY: Buy is always higher than sell due to bid-offer spread of around 4-5%.

How to evaluate a unit trust ... (perhaps that's the title of my next ebook) ...

Step 1: Go to https://www.dollardex.com/SG/?current=investUTgraph/home&previous=investUTgraph/home

Unselect show funds only sold at DollarDEX, so that you can see all funds (even so some are not listed on DollarDex)

Step 2: Click and Select funds to compare:

Step 3: Decide: cut ILP, buy equivalent UT or something else

How to determine if you insurance agent or financial planner is competent to advise you on investing UTs:

1) Did they make their wealth (significantly) with UTs?

2) Have they gone through one full economic cycle?

3) Can they answer questions convincingly about markets, fund characteristics etc?

4) What is their strategy and rationale of fund selection?

5) Do they only look at performance ? And only last 3-4 years? 

6) Did they show you how bad it can get? The downside?

AK: Brendan, I really like these 6 questions that you have listed. Very telling! I want to thank you for patiently answering all our questions and, to all my readers, if you would like to have a copy of Brendan's e-book, go to: https://ut200.isrefer.com/go/ILPTB/sgstock/

Remember, nobody cares more about our money than we do. So, take charge and ask questions. Make sure we understand what we are getting ourselves into each and every time. If we don't understand something, walk away. Don't commit.

With that, the show has come to an end.